Update to this post.
In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump.
Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary price elasticity of import demand (orange bar), and assuming zero (orange bar plus light orange bar). Source: graphic from Factcheck (2012), modified by author. [graph edited 2/4]
The measures mean the US taxes additionally about $1.3 trn worth of goods (2023 amounts). That’s the biggest one year tax increase in dollar terms since… ever, at $252 bn ($192 bn assuming unit elasticity of demand and if Trump goes through with plans). Taxes collected by CPB, and going into the US Treasury.
That’s in nominal dollar terms. As a share of GDP, it’s 0.9%, 0.7% assuming unit elasticity.
By the way, Ontario’s retaliation raises Canada’s taxes on American — a 25% export tax on electricity exports. Canada exported is $4.2 bn in 2022, and about 25% of that is from Ontario. So add $260 mn to the tally.
This article about OPEC’s output increase includes the explanation that OPEC is responding to pressure from Trump:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-03/opec-to-begin-long-delayed-supply-restart-amid-trump-pressure
That’s just another news outlet suckng up to the rapist-in-chief; there is not direct evidence that the output hike is in response to the felon-in-chief. In fact, OPEC has been delaying g output hikes agreed to last year, and had already announced hikes would comme ce in April.
By the way, the felon-in-chief has claimed that he will induce oil producing firms to boost domestic U.S. production by 3 million barrels per day. How he intends to dothat is unclear, but OPEC output hikes military against any increase in U.S. production.
OPEC has long used its output policy to discourage competition from outside of OPEC. That’s exactly what this looks like.
Lutnick says the felon-in-chief is going to offer to back down on tariffs tomorrow (Wednesday). Probably going to demand that Sheinbaum and Trudeau say “thank you” five times. Vance will say “No. Make it six.”
Meanwhile, domestic hot-rolled coil steel is up nearly 30% so far this year, with new tariffs still two weeks away:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/hrc-steel