From the CPI release today:
Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold blue), CPI – household furnishings and operations (tan), CPI – final demand, consumer durables (green), all in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, author’s calculations.
While m/m CPI headline growth was at consensus, q/q core was slightly above, so that the core PCE nowcast has moved up:
Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized inflation of CPI (bold black), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8/8 (gray square), Bloomberg consensus, Kalshi betting CT (chartreuse triangle), Goldman Sachs as of 8/7 (red *), inflation of PCE (bold blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 8/8 (light blue open square). as of 8/12 (light blue large square). Source: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed accessed 8/8, 8/12, Bloomberg, Kalshi accessed 8/8 noon CT, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
The Trump administration is hitting potential homeowners hard – (high long term interest rates, increased insurance costs – due to climate change, lack of student loan forgiveness, higher building costs due to deporting dry wallers, painters, roofers and increasing lumber prices due to tariffs, higher property taxes to local govt w/o federal support) – meaning millions will not be able to build net worth.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-08-13/americans-are-getting-priced-out-of-homeownership-at-record-rates