Using Challenger, Gray, Christmas data at quarterly frequency, normalized by civilian labor force.

Figure 1: Challenger layoff announcements to civilian labor force ratio (blue). Challenger data seasonally adjusted by author using Census X-13 (in logs). Labor force using smoothed population controls over 2022-24 period. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Brown dashed lines denote significant breaks due to population controls, at Census dates. Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas January 2025 release, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Layoff announcements spikes do not reliably precede NBER recession dates (remember these are peak-to-trough dates, so the beginning of gray shading denotes peak), although they do rise either before or during the first quarter of a recession. The exceptions are the 1998 jump, the 2011 and 2015 spikes. The 2015 spike takes place against the backdrop of a rapid dollar appreciation (of about 17%).