GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat.

Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars),  all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q1 Advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3/23/2026 release), and author’s calculations. 

Some alternative indicators surged, including retail sales deflated by CPI, freight services (for February), while consumption continued to rise. Figure 2 is drawn with the same vertical axis as that for Figure 1, to enhance comparisons.

Figure 2: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (light green), real retail sales, CPI deflated (black), freight services indexes (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS, ADP,via FRED,  Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2], Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2025Q4 3rd release, and author’s calculations.