although they over-estimated in 2023-24.

Figure 1: Actual year-on-year CPI inflation (bold black), lagged expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (red), [median] from NY Fed (brown), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (light blue +), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.