The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific.
Source: USNI, accessed 8/17/2026.
So much for the pivot to the Pacific.
The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning.
Source: Kalshi, accessed 8/17/2026, noon CT.
At the same time, Brent October futures remain elevated near $90, while gasoline futures near all-time levels in June.
Source: NYMEX via Barchart, accessed 8/17/2026 noon CT.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, for some definition of closed?:
“Covert Mideast Oil Flows Are Keeping Global Prices in Check”
https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/covert-mideast-oil-flows-keeping-140457099.html
Lead sentence:
“Middle Eastern oil producers are pressing ahead with shuttling large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf, helping keep a lid on prices and assuaging fears of an energy-driven inflation spike, even as the Iran war drags on.”
I have insurance questions. I have nationality questions.
“The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning.”
In a related Kalshi bet, the odds of Democrats taking a majority in the Senate are now put at 49%, the highest since mid-April.
https://kalshi.com/markets/controls/senate-winner/controls-2026