Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty low, as does Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), and author’s calculations.

The breakdown between current conditions and expectations highlights that expectations remain mired at low levels.