Forward rates on Treasury bonds tell an interesting story about the market’s reaction to the Fed’s interest rate cut on Tuesday.
Monthly Archives: September 2007
Divining the Dollar
The dollar declines in response to the drop in the target Fed Funds rate. What next?
50 it is
For the first time in 5 years, markets were actually unsure what the Fed was going to do, with yesterday’s fed funds options calling it an even chance that the Fed would settle for a 25-basis-point cut or go all the way to 50. Capital Chronicle had prepared amusing posters as to just how to interpret a 25-basis-point as opposed to a 50-basis-point cut. Fifty it was, disappointing perhaps knzn who wanted a 175-basis-point cut, but delighting economic researchers like Refet Gurkaynak and Eric Swanson who both emailed me their high spirits at finally getting another data point for what happens when the Fed surprises the markets.
Four Observations on Import and Export Prices and the Dollar
Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
Economic indicators of success in Iraq
Some economists have been interpreting economic developments as shedding light on the success of the military surge in Iraq. I think one needs to use a bit of caution in drawing conclusions from such evidence.
Is Bush an Economic Conservative? Does He Analyze?
Greenspan says no, on both counts.
Catch the wave
I keep trying to warn my friends in the Federal Reserve about the tsunami that’s coming their way.
The commercialization of space
Google seems to be thinking big.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
Perspective on the Surge and US Losses
I thought it would behoove us to actually inspect the data and look at the trends (as opposed to listening to Administration officials) associated with operations in the Iraqi theater.