We can start worrying about the oil price shock- and we can start worrying about the recession. However, our interest rate based Business Cycle Indicator signalled a recession in April 2005. In the past it has led economic downturns by 9 to 24 months. We can blame oil prices. We can blame the housing market. Hell, we can even blame the stars if we want. But that doesn’t change the role interest rates play. See our April post at Van Schaik’s Economic Outlook http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com
Ah hah. Finally, a chance to peer over the shoulder of a hard working economist inside the walls of the economic factory.
Caption – “I am always amazed at what these amateurs think.”
And here’s the page he’s viewing. This is very meta.
Hi Prof. Chinn, is blog-writing a burden to you? how many hours you spend on it each week?
We can start worrying about the oil price shock- and we can start worrying about the recession. However, our interest rate based Business Cycle Indicator signalled a recession in April 2005. In the past it has led economic downturns by 9 to 24 months. We can blame oil prices. We can blame the housing market. Hell, we can even blame the stars if we want. But that doesn’t change the role interest rates play. See our April post at Van Schaik’s Economic Outlook http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com