Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
Monthly Archives: June 2008
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
Following up on this post from October 2006, when oil was only $58.88 (WTI,daily average) a barrel, consider this excerpt from today’s Thomas Net:
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that “the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today.”
SNDE Interview
Bruce Mizrach prepared some very thoughtful questions for an interview at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago. We discussed a broad range of topics, including my background, Markov-switching models, the Fed, oil prices, and why I blog. Below are links you can follow to see the answers to particular questions.
Important Footnotes in Dynamic Scoring
The White House today cited the 2006 Treasury Report in its “Pro Growth Tax Policy” information sheet. From the website:
Anchors away
From the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee: