West Texas Intermediate closed today above $115/barrel. Does that reflect changes in the fundamentals of world supply and demand? My answer is no.
Yearly Archives: 2008
Consumer Sentiment Indices: Do They Matter?
From Haver.com:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Down Yet Again
April 11, 2008
By Tom Moeller
- The preliminary reading of April consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell another 9.1% m/m to 63.2. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 69.0. The decline dropped sentiment to near its lowest level since 1982.
Commodity arbitrage
Scott Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. He has been doing some fascinating research on the relation between spot and futures prices in agricultural markets that may shed some light on the role of speculation in recent commodity price movements. We are delighted that Scott agreed to share some of the results of his research with Econbrowser readers.
Food prices
How should a well-fed American react when some of the world’s poorest citizens in Haiti and Bangladesh riot over the rising price of food?
The G-7 Communique and the Dollar
Was this the new (reverse) “Plaza Accord”? From Bloomberg:
Central bank independence
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich (hat tip: Economist’s View) offered some thoughts Friday about democracy and the Federal Reserve. Both his insights and his errors are instructive.
Some more unwelcome developments
New bankruptcies as consumer sentiment deteriorates.
Revisions: The Global Outlook in the WEO
The IMF released the World Economic Outlook‘s forecasts yesterday. There’s been plenty of coverage, so I won’t recap the main points, but rather focus in on some interesting aspects:
- The rapidity of the downshifting of estimates since January.
- Commodity price prospects and the LDCs.
Visualizing foreclosures
Via Mortgage News Clips, an interesting interactive map of Denver foreclosures in USA Today.
Oil and the Great Moderation
Another interesting paper presented at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium that I attended last week was by
Anton Nakov of the Bank of Spain and Andrea Pescatori of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the role that changes in energy markets may have played in the reduction in GDP and inflation volatility observed since 1984.