Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions. Let’s compare peaks to inversions: Figure 1: Fed funds (blue), and 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury, Fed via FRED, NBER. Inversions and peaks precede recessions. … Continue reading Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction