The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a little below the historical average rate of 3.1% since World War II, but about equal to the average 2.4% rate since 2009:Q3.

Quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2024:Q4, with the historical average since 1947 (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of real GDP from the previous quarter.

The new numbers put the Econbrowser recession indicator index coincidentally also at 2.3%, signalling that the expansion that began in 2020:Q3 continued at least through the end of the Biden presidency.

GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2024:Q3 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index.

Consumer purchases alone could account for more than all of the GDP growth. Some of the extra consumption spending was met by drawing down inventories rather than new production. Lower nonresidential fixed investment also held GDP back.