Professor Gordon Dahl (my colleague here at UCSD) and Berkeley Professor Stefano DellaVigna have an interesting new research paper titled Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Consumption smoothing and economic slowdowns
How alarming is it that 200% of 2007:Q1 GDP growth came from consumption spending?
Recession probability index rises to 16.9
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that index is constructed and what the latest move up might signify.
Current economic conditions improve
Let’s admit it– the other shoe is not yet dropping.
Why are gasoline prices going up again?
Blame crude oil and the calendar.
Weekend links
Assorted links to updates on some of the stories we’ve been following at Econbrowser, including declining Saudi Arabian oil production, the role of mortgage-backed securities, and pressures on public pension funds to take on additional risks.
The politics of future promises
I have been detailing concerns about meeting the pension and health care obligations of the city and county of San Diego. Although these challenges arise at the level of our local government, the problem appears to be national in scope, as a sampling of stories from PensionWatch makes clear.
Patent protection and technological innovation
There is a potential conflict between the two that we ought to revisit as the nature of technological advance itself undergoes profound changes.
New estimates of macroeconomic effects of tax changes
Berkeley Professors Christina and David Romer have an
interesting new research paper estimating the macroeconomic consequences of tax changes.
Hedge fund regulation
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke yesterday explained why he sees no need for increased regulation of hedge funds.