A few weeks ago I noted that the fed funds futures contracts seemed to reflect an expectation that we’d see one more rate hike this fall, and that would be it. But a lot can change in two weeks. Now the message looks more like, “that’s it!”
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Slower second quarter growth
As expected, GDP growth slowed significantly in the second quarter.
Seasonal adjustment and new home sales
How significant is the housing slowdown? Answering requires separating the seasonal from the cyclical factors.
Reading the yield curve
What are the implications of the current shape of the yield curve?
That’s one way to raise those campaign dollars
A California lawyer tells doctors that they should not expect to be asked to testify in workers’ compensation trials unless they contribute $2,500 to Phil Angelides’ campaign for governor.
Bernanke’s latest testimony
A more optimistic assessment from the Fed chair than I had been expecting.
Can the economy shrug off $80 oil?
With world oil supplies already stressed by production cutbacks in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, worries that the Israeli conflict might further disrupt oil shipments have produced new price highs. How does that affect the prospects for an economic downturn?
Are we there yet?
Almost, but not quite, sayeth the fed funds futures.
China roars into the automotive era
Guess who’s now the second-biggest market for new cars in the world?
Questions remain about Saudi oil
Is Saudi Arabia part of the reason for oil’s new price highs?