With all the heated discussions of the last two weeks, it is important to keep perspective on which issues are in dispute and which are not. Let me state plainly something on which I think we ought to be agreed: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’s 2009 book, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, is a valuable work of scholarship that continues to deserve study and praise from any thinking person. Here I review some of my reasons for saying that.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Another mediocre GDP report: is this the new normal?
The BEA released today its estimate of 2013 first-quarter real GDP, which grew at a 2.5% annual rate from the previous quarter. That’s below the average 3.1% growth rate since World War II, but better than the 2.1% average since the recovery began in 2009:Q3.
Reinhart-Rogoff and Herndon-Ash-Pollin: a few further comments
I made some comments on Sunday about a recent critique by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin of an influential 2010 paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Yesterday Econbrowser hosted a
reply from Pollin and Ash to my remarks. Here I would like to add a few further thoughts on this discussion.
Reply to Prof. Hamilton regarding “Reinhart-Rogoff Data Problems”
Today Econbrowser hosts this guest contribution from Robert Pollin and Michael Ash of the Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst.
Reinhart-Rogoff data problems
The methods and conclusions of an influential paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in 2010 have recently been challenged by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin. Here I comment on both the details and broader significance of the dispute.
Growing student debt
I was curious to take a look at the growing student debt load and the government’s exposure to potential repayment issues.
Who is holding all those U.S. dollars?
If recent trends continue, in a few months there will be $1.2 trillion in Federal Reserve notes (otherwise known as dollar bills) in circulation. Who is holding all these?
2013 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
Despite much bracket-busting, the nation’s best college basketball team seems somehow to have emerged as winner of the 2013 men’s NCAA basketball tournament. Congratulations to Louisville, and congratulations to budwysor, who won the coveted championship of the 2013 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge, in part by picking not only Louisville as winner but also 5 of the last 8 teams standing. Thanks to all the others who participated. And if things didn’t go your way, there’s always next year!
Is the recovery dying?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the number of Americans with jobs only increased by 88,000 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s one of the weakest months in the last two years. Although it’s clearly a disappointment, I would caution against reading too much into the latest number.
The death of peak oil
“Peak oil is dead,” Rob Wile declared last week. Colin Sullivan says it has “gone the way of the Flat Earth Society”, writing
Those behind the theory appear to have been dead wrong, at least in terms of when the peak would hit, having not anticipated the rapid shift in technology that led to exploding oil and natural gas production in new plays and areas long since dismissed as dried up.
These comments inspired me to revisit some of the predictions made in 2005 that received a lot of attention at the time, and take a look at what’s actually happened since then.