The Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment tumbled four points in April. Could just be measurement noise, or could be that something new is pressing down on consumers.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Granger causality
Hal Varian passes along this amusing result if you query Google Insights for Search for searches on “mixed drinks” and “hangovers.”
More on oil prices and the economic recovery
On Saturday I commented on whether
rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery. Here are some quick links to perspectives from other observers.
Do rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery?
Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum. Oil had been holding around $80/barrel over the last month, but traded as high as $87 last week, leading the Financial Times to ask whether oil could give the “kiss of death to recovery.” Here is how I would answer that question.
Links for 2010-04-07
A few items from the ‘sphere that you might find interesting.
NCAA tournament winner
It was an exciting basketball tournament, right down to the final game.
Looks good to me
Finally we’re starting to see some convincing indications of economic recovery.
Congress seeks more information on health care charges
AT&T announced last week that it would charge $1 billion against its earnings as a result of the recently passed health care bill. Other companies also announcing charges include Caterpillar ($100 M), John Deere ($150 M), and
MMM ($85-90 M). Analyst David Zion of Credit Suisse estimated that S&P 500 companies will rack up a combined $4.5 B charge.
Interest rates spike up
How scary is it?
Not a textbook rebound
Is this as good as it gets? For the time being at least, it seems to be.