Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum. Oil had been holding around $80/barrel over the last month, but traded as high as $87 last week, leading the Financial Times to ask whether oil could give the “kiss of death to recovery.” Here is how I would answer that question.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Links for 2010-04-07
A few items from the ‘sphere that you might find interesting.
NCAA tournament winner
It was an exciting basketball tournament, right down to the final game.
Looks good to me
Finally we’re starting to see some convincing indications of economic recovery.
Congress seeks more information on health care charges
AT&T announced last week that it would charge $1 billion against its earnings as a result of the recently passed health care bill. Other companies also announcing charges include Caterpillar ($100 M), John Deere ($150 M), and
MMM ($85-90 M). Analyst David Zion of Credit Suisse estimated that S&P 500 companies will rack up a combined $4.5 B charge.
Interest rates spike up
How scary is it?
Not a textbook rebound
Is this as good as it gets? For the time being at least, it seems to be.
Why reform health care?
Amidst all the preoccupation with the procedural details of how health care legislation is likely to be implemented, I was glad to see Paul Krugman make the case for why reform is needed in the first place.
Bank supervision and the Federal Reserve
In testimony today before Congress, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke outlined his reasons why the Federal Reserve is uniquely suited to be the regulatory supervisor for U.S. banks.
2010 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
If you’re both a very faithful and a very passive Econbrowser reader, for two years now you’ve sat on the sidelines while you watched other, equally faithful but less passive readers participate in the world-famous Econbrowser NCAA Tournament Challenge, in which brave souls pretend they can predict a significant number of the winners of the games of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. If so, here’s your third chance to sit on the sidelines again, or maybe even to participate this time.