That’s the big take-away from today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation’s production of goods and services grew at a 3.2% annual rate during the first quarter of 2010. But the details behind today’s report suggest that the recovery so far remains pretty weak by historical standards.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Why Adam ate the apple
In my last post, I discussed how the run-up of U.S. mortgage debt during the last decade was funded. One important element was the sale of commercial paper that helped fund the purchase of some mortgage-related securities. Here I comment on why it was hard for some institutions to resist buying that commercial paper.
Follow the money
What happened to housing and financial markets over the last decade? To find out, follow the money.
Improving the fuel efficiency of U.S. light vehicles
I recently highlighted grounds for pessimism about the ease with which the U.S. could significantly change our oil consumption habits. Here I highlight some interesting new research by U.C. Davis economics professor Christopher Knittel which offers a more optimistic assessment.
Consumers get more pessimistic
The Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment tumbled four points in April. Could just be measurement noise, or could be that something new is pressing down on consumers.
Granger causality
Hal Varian passes along this amusing result if you query Google Insights for Search for searches on “mixed drinks” and “hangovers.”
More on oil prices and the economic recovery
On Saturday I commented on whether
rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery. Here are some quick links to perspectives from other observers.
Do rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery?
Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum. Oil had been holding around $80/barrel over the last month, but traded as high as $87 last week, leading the Financial Times to ask whether oil could give the “kiss of death to recovery.” Here is how I would answer that question.
Links for 2010-04-07
A few items from the ‘sphere that you might find interesting.
NCAA tournament winner
It was an exciting basketball tournament, right down to the final game.