Author Archives: James_Hamilton

Links for 2010-01-13

Stuart Staniford, who earlier had been persuaded that global oil production might have already peaked, now comments on the potential for increased production from Iraq to push the peak up to a decade down the road.

King Banaian on disturbing developments in Argentina and Venezuela.

Economists comment on the role of the Fed in the housing bubble. Two in particular worth emphasizing:

Marvin Goodfriend: Interest rate policy was appropriately stimulative in the 2002-3 period. But rates should have been raised less mechanically and more aggressively in 2004-5 on grounds of the usual macroeconomic conditions…. A somewhat tighter stance of interest rate policy then could have cut off the last year or so of the house price appreciation and prevented the worst part of the subsequent adjustment.

Mark Gertler: If we could go back in history and make one policy change, I’d go after sub-prime lending. Absent non-prime lending, the likely outcome of the housing correction of 2007 would have been a mild recession like 2000-2001, and not the debacle we experienced.

Links for 2009-12-16

  • NY Fed economist Erkko Etula finds that he can predict oil prices using the volume of broker-dealer financial assets.
  • Washington University Professor James Morley and separately Kansas City Fed economist Todd Clark haven’t given up on the Great Moderation.
  • My colleague Eli Berman discusses his book Radical, Religious, and Violent: The New Economics of Terrorism
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may seek an increase to their $400 billion federal lifeline before the end of the year.
  • Billy Hallowell puts together a blog carnival on Facing Up to the Nation’s Finances.
  • Berkeley Professor Petr HoYava proposes a new theory of gravity.