That’s the title of a chapter I contributed to a new book edited by John Ciorciari and John Taylor entitled The Road Ahead for the Fed. The book grew out of a conference held at Stanford University in March.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Links for 2009-07-12
A very neat interactive graphic from the NYT showing changes in same-store sales for different establishments. (Click on the store name at the left, and tip your hat to Economix).
Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here.
And a hilarious story via Calculated Risk on why Wells Fargo is suing itself.
Guest Contribution: Index Funds and Commodity Prices… Here We Go Again
By Scott Irwin
Econbrowser is pleased to host another contribution from Scott Irwin, who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois, and today offers some insights from his research on the current debate concerning commodity speculation.
Back where we started
BLS reported that the total number of Americans employed in June on nonfarm payrolls came to 131.7 million workers on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s below the June 2000 figure of 131.8 million with which we started the decade.
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Off-balance-sheet federal liabilities
Just how much has the U.S. government promised to pay?
No rebound for autos
Autos are worth watching as one sector where economic growth could resume first. But despite what others are saying, I don’t believe that it’s happening yet.
A V-shaped recession?
As James Morley has pointed out, often a sharp economic downturn is followed by an equally sharp economic recovery. One reason for that is the liquidation of inventories that accompanies any recession and restocking that takes place in recovery. What should we expect this time?
On grilling the Fed Chair
I got a bit angry at accounts of the latest appearance of Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke before the U.S. Congress.
Links for 2009-06-26
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has put together some very useful timelines of the financial crisis, if you want a handy reference for what happened when in both the United States and around the world.
The BEA reported that disposable personal income increased 1.6% between April and May. In the absence of the stimulus cuts to personal taxes and increases in social benefit payments, the number would have been 0.2%. Real personal consumption expenditures were up 0.2% for the month, though that leaves the April-May average 0.1% below the January-March average. Calculated Risk, always your go-to source for these matters, sums it up this way:
Usually PCE and Residential Investment (RI) lead the economy out of recession, and right now both remain weak. As households increase their savings rate to repair their balance sheets, it seems unlikely that PCE will increase significantly any time soon.
And via Craig Newmark, earn $11 a day by working in hell.
The leading economic index
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased by more than 1% in both April and May. Since I’ve been scratching my head trying to find some confirmation for recent economic optimism, I was curious to take a look at what’s responsible for the favorable reading from the LEI.