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Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Oil and the dollar
Although movements in the value of the dollar are one factor contributing to recent changes in the dollar price of oil, I do not believe they are the most important factor. Here I review some of the evidence that persuades me of this.
What does the GDP deflator measure?
As Menzie explained yesterday, it isn’t inflation. Since there still seems to be some controversy about this issue (e.g.,
Rich Karlgaard,
Instapundit, and
Reuters), let me take a stab at it as well.
Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy
It’s instructive to compare what’s currently happening to the auto sector and the U.S. economy with what we saw in the wake of the 1990 oil shock.
Not exactly a boom, either
While the latest GDP figures suggest an economy that continues to grow, today’s employment data are more consistent with the claim that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
Not quite a recession
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2008, less than many analysts had been predicting a week ago, but substantially better than the 6-month-ahead predictions for that number that we were hearing back in January.
Due diligence
Tanta caught this story from the Orange County Register:
Oil prices and demand
More evidence of significant changes in the behavior of American consumers.
Oil prices and economic fundamentals
Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that’s where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain
At least that’s the assessment of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist John Fernald (hat tip: Mark Thoma).