“Is the first zone wide recession in the short history of the eurozone about to be registered?” asks Edward Hugh. I was curious to apply the algorithm for calculating my U.S. recession indicator index to a euro area GDP measure to get an answer.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Recession indicators
Many people may not care whether our current situation meets the formal definition of a recession, but as I’ve explained previously, you should. Here’s a summary of how I see the economy at the moment. I begin by discussing a new paper by UCLA Professor Ed Leamer, which has also been highlighted by Greg Mankiw, Frank Stephenson, Calculated Risk, and Brian Blackstone.
More speculation about those oil speculators
I normally leave it to folks like Dean Baker to beat up on the press. But I can’t resist shining a bright light on today’s story about oil speculators in the Washington Post, which has also been discussed by Mark Thoma and Tyler Cowen.
Economic consequences of falling oil prices
I’ve maintained that rising oil prices put a significant burden on the U.S. economy in recent months. How much will falling oil prices help to alleviate those concerns?
Core inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that its primary consumer price index CPI-U rose 5.6% over the last year. That’s the highest inflation rate in 17 years, the newspapers all call to our attention. Just how concerned should we be about these numbers?
Americans making changes
American energy consumption is dropping. But will falling gasoline prices reverse that trend?
Macroblog returns
It’s back!
Oil and the dollar
Although movements in the value of the dollar are one factor contributing to recent changes in the dollar price of oil, I do not believe they are the most important factor. Here I review some of the evidence that persuades me of this.
What does the GDP deflator measure?
As Menzie explained yesterday, it isn’t inflation. Since there still seems to be some controversy about this issue (e.g.,
Rich Karlgaard,
Instapundit, and
Reuters), let me take a stab at it as well.
Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy
It’s instructive to compare what’s currently happening to the auto sector and the U.S. economy with what we saw in the wake of the 1990 oil shock.