While the latest GDP figures suggest an economy that continues to grow, today’s employment data are more consistent with the claim that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Not quite a recession
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2008, less than many analysts had been predicting a week ago, but substantially better than the 6-month-ahead predictions for that number that we were hearing back in January.
Due diligence
Tanta caught this story from the Orange County Register:
Oil prices and demand
More evidence of significant changes in the behavior of American consumers.
Oil prices and economic fundamentals
Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that’s where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain
At least that’s the assessment of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist John Fernald (hat tip: Mark Thoma).
New estimates of the high school dropout rate
I was shocked by today’s report that the high school dropout rate in California has reached 24%.
Did Fannie and Freddie cause the mortgage crisis?
Some thoughts about the role played by the GSEs in the run-up in mortgage debt and house prices.
The Fannie and Freddie assistance plan
I see much to like about this.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
How did we get into this mess, and how do we get out of it?