Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that’s where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain
At least that’s the assessment of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist John Fernald (hat tip: Mark Thoma).
New estimates of the high school dropout rate
I was shocked by today’s report that the high school dropout rate in California has reached 24%.
Did Fannie and Freddie cause the mortgage crisis?
Some thoughts about the role played by the GSEs in the run-up in mortgage debt and house prices.
The Fannie and Freddie assistance plan
I see much to like about this.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
How did we get into this mess, and how do we get out of it?
Janet Yellen on risks and prospects for the U.S. economy
This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable. She focused on three main challenges: the housing slump, financial market turmoil, and commodity prices, which she likened to the three witches from Macbeth. Her complete speech is available from the FRB SFO Here are some excerpts.
Links for July 3
Today we outsource with some interesting links on oil markets and housing.
Recession and the oil shock of 2008
Unfortunately, this seems to be unfolding according to script.
Lecture on regional business cycles
The lecture I gave at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago on regional business cycles (earlier summarized here and
here) is now available via video streaming (courtesy of Bruce Mizrach and the SNDE). Note you have to click through the slides yourself as the lecture proceeds, and it seems to work with Internet Explorer but not Firefox.