Alan Gin is an economics professor at the University of San Diego (a separate institution from the University of California at San Diego, where I teach). His San Diego index of leading economic indicators is sending a pretty strong negative signal.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Fed rate cut
Today the Federal Reserve announced a further 50-basis-point cut in its target for the fed funds interest rate, bringing it down to 3.0% for a total reduction in January of 125 basis points. How long should it take before this has an effect on the economy?
Weak GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007, a weaker report than many of us had been expecting.
Betting on recession
There was also some interesting action on the Intrade betting exchange this week.
Another day, another dollar
It was a fun day to be a macroeconomist, don’t you think?
The Fed makes its move
The Federal Reserve announced today it was lowering its target for the fed funds rate 75 basis points, from its previous value of 4.25% to a new value of 3.5%.
The case against fiscal stimulus
Everybody else seemed to hear Bernanke say he was in favor of fiscal stimulus as one approach to our economic problems. But I instead heard him articulate very intelligently the potential pitfalls of the strategy.
Will inflation fears restrain the Fed?
I think not, and here’s why.
December retail sales
Disappointing yes, but the financial press is getting a little carried away.
How low will Ben go?
Was 25, now we have 50. Do I hear 75?