Somewhat of a surprise, nonfarm payroll employment increased only 74,000 in December, according to estimates from the BLS. Private NFP increased 84,000.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Financial Openness and Currency Crises”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jon Frost and Ayako Saiki, econonomists at the De Nederlandsche Bank. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of De Nederlandsche Bank.
Progress in Rebalancing
Manufacturing output is returning to pre-recession levels, exports are continuing to grow,and the trade balance is shrinking.
Macro Implications of Extending Emergency Unemployment Compensation
From CBO:
…CBO estimates that extending the current EUC program and other related expiring provisions until the end of 2014 would increase inflation-adjusted GDP by 0.2 percent and increase full-time-equivalent employment by 0.2 million in the
fourth quarter of 2014. …
“Is the U.S. economy really about to go boom?”
Politico Magazine asks “should we really be so optimistic about the year ahead?” Mohamed El-Arian (PIMCO), Jared Bernstein (CBPP), Laurence Kotlikoff (Boston U.), Robert Reich (Berkeley), Menzie Chinn (Wisconsin U.) and Jeffry Frieden (Harvard), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard) and Dean Baker (CEPR) respond.
“For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises”
That’s the title of a paper coauthored by Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France), Gong Cheng (Sciences Po), Noemie Lisack (European University Institute) and myself, in which we examine two key questions:
[F]irst, has the accumulation of reserves effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis? And second, what explains the pattern of reserve accumulation observed during and after the crisis?
The Year in Review, 2013: Fantastical Pseudo Economics
The Shoveling Must Continue
Bill Beach has retired, and the Heritage Foundation no longer “scores” budget plans. Yet there is still so much … stuff … out there to debunk. Without further ado, here are my top ten examples of delusion in 2013.
British Economic Triumphalism in Perspective
Updated, includes summary of an econometric analysis of impact of austerity in the UK
Prime Minister Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne has lauded the recent UK growth numbers as validation for the policy of austerity [1] (recently relaxed, although he doesn’t mention that).
Reason for Optimism?
Despite the best efforts of some policymakers to reduce aggregate demand by way of austerity measures [0], there are glimmers of hope for more rapid growth.
Wisconsin Employment in November
Figure 1 shows private employment relative to trend implied by Governor Walker’s pledge of August 2013 to create 250,000 net new jobs; Figure 2 shows employment normalized to January 2011 for Wisconsin, as compared to Minnesota and the Nation.