Motor vehicles is one of the key sectors to watch for an indication that the recent gas price spike might derail the current economic expansion.
Category Archives: recession
Strong first-quarter GDP growth
The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.
Who’s afraid of $3 gasoline?
Does the expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP report mean that the economy will shrug off the recent resurgence of gas prices?
Oil shocks and personal saving
Mark Thoma notes some interesting thoughts by Harvard professor Martin Feldstein on why the oil shock of 2005 was not more disruptive.
Latest employment data
The latest employment data are quite encouraging, though some may have overstated the case for enthusiasm.
Should the Fed worry about going too far?
I wanted to weigh in on the exchange between Kash Mansori at Angry Bear and Dave Altig at Macroblog.
Autos and the U.S. economy
A number of analysts have suggested that autos play a much less significant role in the U.S. economy today than they have historically. The data from 2005 would seem to call that conclusion into question.
Gloomy GDP report
Very weak GDP figures produced a slight rise in the recession probability index and warrant a more pessimistic outlook for 2006.
What’s the Fed waiting for?
The Fed is likely to stop raising rates soon. What will be the final signal that enough is enough?
2005: the oil shock that didn’t bite?
All but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a dramatic increase in oil prices. Did we escape unscathed in 2005?