I participated this morning in the 23rd Annual San Diego County Economic Roundtable discussion of prospects for the national and local economy. Slides from my remarks are available here and video from the event will be rebroadcast locally a number of times (schedule here).
My bottom line? I think 2007 will be disappointing, but not a disaster.
UPDATE: the event has also been covered by the San Diego Union Tribune.
Professor, I thoroughly enjoyed your presentation — clear, concise, thought-provoking — and enjoyed meeting you. Fine job illustrating to us laymen the change in the components of GDP growth and of the shift north in many elements of the CPI.
If the status quo holds, things will be disappointing. But, there are important developments afoot — defaults skyrocketing, subprime lenders failing, Bank of England raising rates, disappointing sale of five year U.S. Treasuries this week — that place the status quo at risk, I think. Without a doubt, 2007 will be interesting.
Keep up the good work, sir!
Thank you for the slide, professor. I live in Florida. If there is a way for me to hear your presentation please let me know. I am greatly interested in your discussion of the CPI.
It was interesting that the strongest correlation to recession in your graphs was the FFR. Should we conclude that the FED is the primary reason we have recessions? It appears that you point to the FED for the GD.
It was difficult to correlate the housing start graphs with the FFR the way they were graphed. Have you done this kind of correlation. It would be interesting to see if a decline in housing starts begins at a relatively consistent period after an increase in the FFR. It would also be interesting to analyze the depth of the housing decline relative to the severity in increase of the FFR.
Excellent question, Dick. I take it up at length in today’s new post.
“..disappointing, but not a disaster.”
Sounds almost exactly how I see things. That’s how my portfolio bets are laid out, anyhow.
Fingers crossed. Disasters sucks.