As the U.S. economy goes into a downturn, we are going to be reminded that extrapolating trends is a hazardous enterprise. For instance, linear extrapolation of tax receipts (expressed as a share of GDP) is probably something that one should be wary of doing. And yet, as shown in some comments on previous posts (see here and here), there seems to be too much belief in what ocular regressions can tell one.
Monthly Archives: December 2007
Term auction facility
Will a new, improved discount window solve our problems?
A curious market reaction
I’m trying to make sense of the strong reactions to yesterday’s action from the Federal Reserve.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar’s trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar’s value.
The Administration Finds Fiscal Restraint
From the White House OMB on Saturday:
More on the new mortgage plan
While the plan may not be as big a deal as we thought, the problem still is.
Some questions about the new mortgage plan
Part of this plan sounds like an unambiguously good idea. But most of the coverage I’ve seen is ignoring what should be the key questions.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.
November auto sales down modestly
Weakness in autos, but it’s not as bad as it could be.
Has Industrial Production Peaked?
And what would it mean if it had?