The CBO and the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation have just released its scoring of “budgetary effects of the reconciliation proposal, in combination with the effects of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), as passed by the Senate”. The link to the document is here. The CBO/JCT estimated reduction in the deficit over FY2010-2019 is $119 billion. A comparison of the impact on the budget balance against previous reconciliation measures is presented in Figure 1, below.
Figure 1: Impact on budget balance, in billions of FY2010$, for EGTRRA; for JGTRRA; and for Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Source: CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (August. 2001), Table 1-4; CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (August 2003), Table 1-8 (revenue implications only); and CBO, “H.R. 4872, Reconciliation Act of 2010: Estimate of direct spending and revenue effects for the amendment in the nature of a substitute released on March 18, 2010,” (March 18, 2010), Table 1.
Note that I used the CPI-all to convert to FY2010$. I used the CBO’s January 2010 forecasts for calendar year CPI year-on-year inflation rates for 2010 and 2011, and projections for 2012-2019, as reported in the CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook, Fiscal Years 2010-2020 (January 2010).