Some observations on the difficult tasks of identifying and explaining such imbalances
I’ve just attended a conference on the subject of imbalances, both global and intra-Europe, where I discussed the roles of China and the US; the agenda for “Intra-European Imbalances, Global Imbalances, International Banking, and International Financial Stability” (organized by Gunther Schnabl and Ansgar Belke of the University of Leipzig, and University of Duisberg/Essen, respectively) is here.
The Peterson Institute yesterday held a session focusing in on imbalances and spillovers, with special reference to the IMF’s new approach, EBA, to identifying imbalances (see this post). The program is here. Joe Gagnon’s presentation critiques the lack of emphasis on the accumulation of forex reserves and other official flows.
As an aside, there are some quite interesting estimates of the cross-border impact of the fiscal cliff in the presentation “Navigating and Interconnected World” (among many other things).