The BLS released today estimates for August state employment. In Figure 1 below, I show US, Wisconsin, Minnesota and California private nonfarm payroll employment figures, normalized to January 2011, when the governors of the three states took office.
Figure 1: Log private nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, normalized to 2011M01, for Wisconsin (blue), Minnesota (red), California (green) and the US (black). Vertical gray dashed line at 2011M01, when Governors Walker, Dayton and Brown took office. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
The August 2013 Wisconsin private employment level is 80,300 below the trendline consistent with achieving Governor Walker’s objective of an increase of 250,000 by January 2015, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted (blue), and the linear trendline to achieve Governor Walker’s goal of increasing private employment by 250,000 (dark gray). Vertical gray dashed line at 2011M01, when Governor Walker took office. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.