Competitiveness, Exchange Rates, Spillovers, the End of Original Sin, and More

Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by SCU, UCSC, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).

The workshop includes papers on that look at stability and international linkages from many angles. The morning sessions include work — such Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito, and Miyamoto and Nguyen — that examine the impact conditions in the major economies have on other economies; and it includes an examination (Vincenzo Quadrini) of the effects of emerging economies on rich ones. It also includes Bergin and Corsetti’s work on the impact of monetary policy on international competitiveness.

The afternoon begins with a focus on exchange rates: forecasting, in the paper by Tornell; and exposure, trade and returns, in the paper by Chakraborty, Tan, and Wu.

The workshop closes with a look at fiscal policy and bond issuance in emerging economies. Bergman and Hutchison examine the usefulness of rules (such as Chile’s) on reducing the procyclicality of fiscal policies in emerging markets; and, Hale, Jones, and Spiegel close the day with work pointing to a silver lining in the global crises: it gave emerging economies with low government debt and stable inflation a chance to jump into issuing bonds in their own currencies instead of being bound to borrowing in a major currency, such as the dollar.

Here’s the agenda:

Stability, Chair, Serguei Maliar, Santa Clara University

“International Competitiveness and Stabilization Policy,” Paul Bergin, UCD
Giancarlo Corsetti, Cambridge University.
Discussant: Viktoria Hnatkovska, University of British Columbia

“The Effects of Emerging Market Growth on Rich-Country Stability,” Vincenzo Quadrini, USC.
Discussant: Takeo Hoshi, Stanford University

Spillovers from the G3, Chair, Nirvikar Singh, UC Santa Cruz

“The Determinants of Sensitivity to Core G3 Economies” Joshua Aizenman, USC, Menzie Chinn, University of Wisconsin, Hiro Ito, Portland State University.
Discussant: Clas Wihlborg, Chapman University

“Understanding the Cross Country Effects of US Technology Shocks” Wataru Miyamoto, Columbia
Thuy Lan Nguyen, Santa Clara University.
Discussant Joshua Aizenman, USC

Exchange Rates, Chair, Carl Walsh, UC Santa Cruz

“Forecasting Exchange Rates” Aaron Tornell, UCLA.
Discussant: Reuven Glick, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

“Imports, Exports, Dollar Exposure and Stock Returns” Suparna Chakraborty, USF
Yi Tang, Fordham, Liuren Wu, Baruch College.
Discussant Michael Melvin, Blackrock

Fiscal Practices in Emerging Markets, Chair, Fernanda Nechio, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

“Fiscal Rules in Emerging Markets” Michael Bergman, University of Copenhagen
Michael Hutchison, UCSC.
Discussant: Goncalo Pina, Santa Clara University

“The Rise in Home Currency Issuance” Galina Hale, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Peter Jones, UCB, Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Discussant Ken Kletzer, UCSC

Reception and Dinner, Nobili Dining Room
Informal Comments: Carl Walsh on QE Exit