The entire report was released today, covering the “…progress of the recovery and explores the long-term factors that drive middle-class incomes,…the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy during 2014, …the opportunities and challenges facing the U.S. labor market, …how American family lives have changed over the last half-century and the implications of these changes for our labor market, …productivity growth with an examination of business tax reform, ..the profound transformation of the U.S. energy sector” and “…the United States in the context of the global economy.”
CEA Chair Jason Furman, CEA Members Maurice Obstfeld, and Betsey Stevenson summarize the report’s findings here.
Yeah. the energy sector stuff is the most interesting. And Figure 6-2-A is probably vastly underestimating the rise of electric cars, and thereby, the need for oil. The Nissan Leaf has changed all the math on this, much more than Tesla. Car industry people look at the sales, the word-of-mouth and so on of the Leaf, and see that the EV transition is finally here. And like most transitional periods, the forecasts are using prior data to predict a vastly different future, so the predictions underestimate the rate and size of the change.
The Chevy Bolt will smash all records because it is like a Leaf that goes 200 miles on a single charge, about an average week of commuting. Never been more optimistic about climate change or renewables…
The weak recovery is actually weaker than reflected in GDP, because the trade balance narrowed.
Americans have been consuming up to $300 billion a year less than producing in the global economy, since the pre-recession trade deficit peak.
Some of the decline is from weaker aggregate demand and some from the shale oil boom.
The shale oil boom not only reduced imports of oil, adding to GDP, it boosted domestic production, along with multiplier effects, which also added to GDP.