Benchmarked Wisconsin Private Nonfarm Payroll Declines

While the BLS state level data will come out on Monday (see discussion here), the individual states release slightly earlier. Wisconsin released employment data today.

wipnfp_qoq

Figure 1: Annualized three month growth rate of private nonfarm payroll employment, benchmarked as measured in January 2016 (black), seasonally adjusted Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (red), and as reported in December 2015 release (teal); all percent changes calculated as log differences. Light green area denotes dates that do not incorporate contemporaneous QCEW data. QCEW data seasonally adjusted using ARIMA X12 implemented in EViews. Source: DWD1, DWD2, BLS, author’s calculations.

There is in the release no mention of the decrease in employment, now in the third month. The release reads:

“The state’s January 2016 unemployment rate is, in large part, a reflection that Wisconsinites are seeing opportunity and entering the labor market,” Secretary Allen said. “The state’s labor force participated at a higher rate and more Wisconsinites entered the job market in January when compared to December. At the Department of Workforce Development, our focus will remain on equipping workers with skills to fill openings as the private sector continues to add tens of thousands of jobs every year.”

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2 thoughts on “Benchmarked Wisconsin Private Nonfarm Payroll Declines

  1. Phil

    “Wisconsinites are seeing opportunity and entering the labor market” Employment is decreasing. I don’t think “entering the labor market” means what they think it means.

    Walker: “It is working”…for the plutocrats.

  2. Samuel

    Dear Dr. Chinn,

    Is it just me or are the DWD press releases becoming more and more cryptic?

    https://dwd.wisconsin.gov/dwd/newsreleases/2016/unemployment/160310_january_state.pdf

    For example, here are some items that are highlighted:

     Wisconsin was one of only 10 states with an annual average unemployment rate in 2015 lower than 2007,
    the year that the Great Recession began. The state’s average annual unemployment rate was 4.6 percent
    in 2015 (not seasonally adjusted).
     Wisconsin’s average weekly private-sector wages increased by 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2015
    over the same quarter in 2014, representing the 5th highest rate of growth in the nation, tied with
    Tennessee.

    The highlights seem more and more convoluted.

    Meanwhile schools in Wisconsin are struggling to fund their operations:

    Oshkosh School Board approves cuts should referendum fail
    http://wbay.com/2016/02/24/oshkosh-school-board-to-vote-on-recommended-cuts-should-referendum-fail/

    And Wisconsin roadways ranked fourth-worst in the U.S.
    http://wbay.com/2016/03/01/wisconsin-roadways-ranked-fourth-worst-in-the-u-s/

    And Wisconsin property taxes are among highest in the nation.
    http://wbay.com/2016/03/09/wisconsin-property-taxes-among-highest-in-the-nation/

    and the state budget is a mess: http://lacrossetribune.com/courierlifenews/news/opinion/gordon-hintz-state-s-budget-problems-are-self-inflicted/article_40243136-62c4-5532-9b4f-c3181191525e.html

    Actions this legislature is taking like eliminating the state Govt. Accountability Board is not doing too much to improve the state’s economy.

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