Minnesota, US series continue to rise.
Wisconsin’s Department of Workforce Development notes today:
Based on preliminary data, the state added a statistically significant 36,000 total nonfarm jobs and 31,500 private sector jobs from September 2015 to September 2016, even with a one month decline of 10,500 total nonfarm and 8,500 private-sector jobs.
Context is provided by the following two graphs:
Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment for Wisconsin (red), Minnesota (blue), and US (black), all normalized to 2011M01=0. Dashed line at 2011M01, beginning of Dayton and Walker administrations. Light green shading denotes data not yet benchmarked using QCEW data. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Log private nonfarm payroll employment for Wisconsin (red), Minnesota (blue), and US (black), all normalized to 2011M01=0. Dashed line at 2011M01, beginning of Dayton and Walker administrations. Light green shading denotes data not yet benchmarked using QCEW data. Source: BLS, DWD, and author’s calculations.
For those who are curious, since private employment is declining, Wisconsin is losing ground relative to the 250,000 net new jobs by January 2015 goal re-asserted by Governor Walker in August 2013. Moreover, private employment is now 11,700 less than the most recent peak value at 2016M03 (i.e., 0.46%, in log terms).
Revisions over the past few months have typically been downward.
Figure 3: Nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s, seasonally adjusted, various releases. Source: BLS, DWD.
The September release did revise up the August figure; nonetheless, employment for both series is below the 2016M03 peak recorded earlier in the year.
How does Illinois look for a comparison? According to Rs it’s the example of “failed liberal policies” so I’d be interested in comparing it.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics added this following note today, as it compared all 50 states for September.
” The three significant decreases in employment over the month occurred in Wisconsin (-10,500), Alabama (-6,600), and New Mexico (-4,200).”
That’s not a good stat to be mentioned in.
Sure, Illinois may be the only state in the Midwest doing worse than Wisconsin for 12-month job growth (+1.25% Wis, +0.73% Ill., even with Illinois adding 7,400 jobs last month), but what’s funny to me is that the biggest Illinois problem is that it cut taxes and refused to set aside money for the lavish pension benefits and huge other spending it has promised. That’s straight out of the Trump/Bush playbook more than it is any “liberal” policy.
Oh, and did we also mention that Wisconsin is on its way to yet another revenue shortfall, with growth less than half of what is needed for the budget to balance? We’re no different than Kansas, just a couple of years behind on the trajectory.
Jake,
Thanks for the mention of the revenue shortfall in Wisconsin. As the Governor and GOP-controlled legislature gear up for the next two budget cycle, I’m wondering where things get cut. Roads? Schools? Of course, politicians of both sides are currently campaigning that they will not cut either: http://lacrossetribune.com/news/local/wisconsin-assembly-education-transportation-funding-dominate-in-doyle-bradley-showdown/article_161be688-10c5-565a-b62f-afa622e61839.html
Raise taxes, perhaps?