Imagine…ACA Repeal and Delay

Following Senator Sasse’s suggestion to implement HR 3762, the President tweeted in support of some version of repeal and delay. What would happen?

We don’t have to wonder too long; CBO has estimates:

CBO and JCT estimate that enacting [H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act of 2015, which would repeal portions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) eliminating, in two steps, the law’s mandate penalties and subsidies but leaving the ACA’s insurance market reforms in place] would affect insurance coverage and premiums primarily in these ways:

  • The number of people who are uninsured would increase by 18 million in the first new plan year following enactment of the bill. Later, after the elimination of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid eligibility and of subsidies for insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces, that number would increase to 27 million, and then to 32 million in 2026.
  • Premiums in the nongroup market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by 20 percent to 25 percent—relative to projections under current law—in the first new plan year following enactment. The increase would reach about 50 percent in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and the marketplace subsidies, and premiums would about double by 2026.

Expect the attacks on the CBO from the usual suspects (e.g., Newt Gingrich, Sean Spicer — if they let him out of the back room –, Mick Mulvaney, etc.).

9 thoughts on “Imagine…ACA Repeal and Delay

  1. randomworker

    They had 7 years to come up with this great conservative policy solution…and this is it???

    1. PeakTrader

      Since Hillarycare failed to pass in 1993, Obamacare was the best they could come up with in 2010?

      I think, the Republicans voted many times just to repeal Obamacare.

      Who would of thought Trump would beat Hillary with Republicans controlling the House and Senate.

      1. randomworker

        They needed 60 Senators. Including Lieberman, Nelson, Landrieu, Pryor, etc. Yes, Joe Lieberman scuttled the Public Option.

        Wonder what TrumpCare would look like if they needed 60 Senators? More or less “mean?”

      2. Beeker

        I think, the Republicans voted many times just to repeal Obamacare.

        The Republicans voted about 60 times to repeal Obamacare expending millions of taxpayers’ money for the exercise considering the fact that it is similar to what the Heritage Foundation came out with in response to what Hillarycare tried to solve and Romney initiated in Massachusetts in 2006. You conveniently left that one out.
        As soon as ACA was signed into a law, the Heritage Foundation disavowed it.

      3. Beeker

        Random worker

        The PPACA (P.L. 111-148) was a bill that passed with 60 votes in the Senate however Ted Kennedy died unexpectedly that led to Scott Brown’s election as Senator. The Democrats had to switch to a reconciliation bill to bypass the 60 votes on the second bill (P.L. 111-152). Essentially the ACA is made up two laws .

  2. 2slugbaits

    I don’t think enough attention is being paid to the possible effects on group (i.e., employer sponsored) health insurance premiums. People are still going to get sick whether or not they have health insurance. People are still going to show up at emergency rooms whether or not they have health insurance. There will still be fixed overhead costs associated with healthcare. Rick “Free Ricer” Stryker, Jr. will still go to the hospital after he crashes his motorcycle. But with fewer people having health insurance, fewer people will be paying for those costs. That means healthcare providers will have to overcharge those patients who do have health insurance through group plans. And that means more employers will have an incentive to drop group coverage…and the GOP bills actually provide tax incentives to drop group coverage. This has death spiral written all over it.

  3. joseph

    Republicans are faced with a terrible choice.

    A. If Republicans repeal the ACA, thousands will die.

    B. If Republicans don’t repeal the ACA, some rich people will pay exactly the same taxes as last year — and the year before that.

    This what Republicans consider a difficult decision. It is still unclear which way it will go.

  4. xo

    Joseph, your comment has so much clarity, I just wanted to say I really enjoyed it. But, I think you may underestimate how much influence Ayn Rand has on the modern conservative movement that took over the Republican party. Pain for the poor is a benefit under Randian ideology. Benefits should go to the makers, not the takers. And, the whip of poverty will force the poor to work harder.

    It’s a feature not a bug…

  5. Johnny Sokko

    I like the ACA. It’s a necessary step forward. I think health care can be modified to retain or enhance free-market aspects that we value, while attacking rent-seeking behaviors.

    I’d like to see insurance companies limited to non-profits only.

    I’d like the profit motive for researchers to remain intact, but pricing guidelines and anti-profiteering laws put in place, so that drug prices relative to development costs remain reasonable.

    I suspect we much more could be done to make the current system live-able. It does little good to drive most of the world’s innovations if those innovations don’t reach the majority of our own citizens.

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