we’d have had over 340,000 more jobs in December. And over 380,000 more jobs in January
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and 2016 linear deterministic exponential trend set to match 2017M01 value (red), in 000’s, seasonally adjusted, on log scale. Orange shading denotes 2017 data. Source: BLS
December 2017 January 2018 release, author’s calculations. (updated 2/2)
And if Coibion-Gorodnichenko-Ulate are right that we are far away from full employment, we shouldn’t necessarily be seeing a deceleration in employment growth.