A Short Macrohistory of Kansas

Following up on Chinn-LeCloux (2018), here are five aggregates for the Kansas economy.

Figure 1: Kansas Real GDP (blue), real personal income (red), coincident index (green), nonfarm payroll employment (black) and civilian employment (teal), all in logs, normalized to 2007Q4=0. Dark arrows (↓) denote peaks, light arrows (↑) denote troughs. NBER defined national recession dates shaded gray. Orange shading indicates tax cuts implemented. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, BLS, and author’s calculations.

The time series for Kansas evidence a different pattern of behavior than indicated in other state series discussed in Chinn and LeCloux. In particular, using the two-quarter rule of thumb, there were recessions in 2012Q2-Q4, 2013Q2-Q3, 2015Q3-Q4, and 2017Q1-Q2. (One could argue that Kansas was in near continuous recession 2012Q2-2013Q3).

Looking at local maxima and minima instead, post-Great Recession, there appears to be another peak in GDP in 2012Q1, and another trough in 2012Q4. Perhaps even more intriguingly, the last peak in real personal income excluding transfers was 2014Q4. Currently (as of 2018Q1), real personal income ex-transfers is 2.8% lower than that peak value. Including government transfers, personal income is down 1.4%.

Another interesting development shown in the figure is that GDP and nonfarm payroll employment have rebounded since the tax cut was partly rescinded in June 2017.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident and leading indices show current growth and forecasted growth is positive.

Figure 2: Kansas coincident index (blue), on log scale. December 2018 observation (blue triangle) is implied by leading index. Orange shading denotes tax cut. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and author’s calculations.

Note that Brown (2017), using the Bry-Boschan algorithm and the indices available at that time, found Kansas to be in recession as of September 2016. This timing derived from the coincident index differs somewhat from that obtained using the other indicators.

9 thoughts on “A Short Macrohistory of Kansas

  1. 2slugbaits

    Menzie Something is wrong with the Brown 2017 link. I’m not familiar with the Bry-Brosch algorithm.

  2. Moses Herzog

    It’s a strong bet that Kobach beats the Democratic nominee. Going to be interesting to see his policy prescriptions after he gets in. After Brownback F’ed up their state budget, it’s going to make the “I’m going to lower taxes” standby line a little more hollow. It’s usually hollow anyway—but after the recent history Kansans are more apt to see it for what it is and has always been.

  3. Moses Herzog

    MCD= months of cyclical dominance?? But “Princeton” Kopits told me this is consultants’ abbreviation for McDonald’s?? Damn man, I’m getting confused again.

    1. pgl

      MCD is the stock ticker for Mickey D’s. I wonder if Princeton Steve has some “analysis” that eating 5 Big Macs a day will help one lose weight. Worked for Chris Christie!

      1. Moses Herzog

        Not sure, but it’s a good bet if you worked in the McD’s kitchen and the cooking crew was feeling hungry, you could ring Kopits up for 15 Big Mac’s on his receipt, Keep 10 Big Macs for the kitchen crew and give Kopits 5, and he’d be absolutely certain he got 15 because that is what you “documented” on the receipt. On the small chance “Princeton” Kopits challenged you on the Big Mac count, just tell him you are “the ME’ and the receipt “takes paperwork, and it has to be completed pretty quickly”, so you are certain he received 15.

  4. Moses Herzog

    For those curious, NYFRB’s Nowcast is basically holding stable at 2.57%, and Atlanta’s just SLIGHTLY going down to 4.3. I am on the record as saying anything over 4% GDP in America right now is bullcr*p. I have been politely admonished by Menzie and 2slugbaits for not believing in the official more empirically based numbers of the BEA. I am still holding to this belief that the most recent BEA numbers are way too high and am waiting for more numbers or other data (hopefully not too much “cherry-picked” by yours truly) to put some wind into my sails. I will only say thus far Menzie has the upper-hand in this, eh, “disputation” but I am not waving the surrender flag yet.

  5. Moses Herzog

    I should add I think pgl probably strongly disagrees with me on my dissent with the most recent BEA GDP number—but has very politely played the role of Sweden in this dispute.

  6. Moses Herzog

    Seems like there could have been some kind of pun or play on words here—-

    “A Short Masochistory of Kansas”

    Ok, what?? You say I’m stretching it?? Huh?? Trying too hard you say??

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