Minnesota Powers Ahead, Wisconsin Flatlines

According to the Philly Fed coincident indices.

Figure 1: Log coincident index for Minnesota (blue), for Wisconsin (red), both 2017M01=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.

6 thoughts on “Minnesota Powers Ahead, Wisconsin Flatlines

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Bruce Hall: As described in the link to the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, included just below the graph of the coincident indices:

        The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

        Since the unemployment rate rose 0.1%, and NFP employment rose slightly, this suggests the other two indicators must have fallen slightly.

        For more details on how the coincident indices link up with overall economic activity measured by GDP, see this post, which you may recall you commented on several times.

        1. Bruce Hall

          Menzie, thanks. I meant, however, that I couldn’t find current data on what aspects of agriculture had declined in Wisconsin. I suspect that soybeans are not as important as dairy production in Wisconsin and, if so, the overall decline in agriculture could be attributed mainly to a decline in the dairy sector.


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