USDA Speaks

From Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast, released yesterday.

Fiscal year (October/September) 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $141.5 billion, down $1.9 billion from fiscal year 2018 and $3.0 billion from the August 2018 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton. Soybean export volumes are down because of declining Chinese purchases from the United States as a result of trade tensions, and as a record U.S. crop continues to pressure soybean prices lower.

My calculations: The value of soybean exports will be down 14.4% going from FY2018 to FY2019 (FY is October to September); the quantity of exports will be down 9.2%, implying a 5.2% decline in prices (all in log terms).

The value of soybean exports in FY2018 is itself down 9.7% relative to FY2017.

The outlook has darkened considerably since the August forecast. The FY2019 forecast for export value has been revised down 11.6%, 8.2% of the decline accounted for by quantity revision.

China looms large.

The forecast for China is lowered $3.0 billion to $9.0 billion [going from August to November forecast], as continued trade tensions limit U.S. export opportunities for many products, most notably soybeans. China is expected to
source most of its soybean imports from countries other than the United States.

So, I still await the Chinese capitulation that drives a recovery in soybean prices.

8 thoughts on “USDA Speaks

  1. Moses Herzog

    The new unofficial Econbrowser song for Soybean price recovery. (I have no bourbon in the house now, this type song is so much melancholically sweeter with hard liquor) boohoo boohoo. (Even the boohooing is more fun with bourbon, don’t ask how I know this)

    (White dude honorable mention for Ronnie Milsap’s version, Sorry Ronnie, you’re a close #2 on this, the black soul beat you by a hair)

  2. Moses Herzog

    I’m sorry, I don’t mean to disrespect the blog, and I believe the topics of each thread should be respected and generally followed. But sometimes, I just can’t control myself:

    Those who love FOX news can skip that link. There’s no use in telling flies to avoid flypaper. So you FOX guys, just head over to Costco or whatever and by your MAGA cap. Get the MAGA t-shirt. Donate to the latest con artist on TBN. Buy Alex Jones “superpure” testosterone pills with your “double patriot discount”. Go buy your Alex Jones angry face mask. Pay Alex Jones 50 times more for fluoride toothpaste then you do at Walmart, ‘cuz Alex Jones has the “special” fluoride toothpaste. Go purchase some CarShield insurance or State Farm insurance. Go buy the “extra protection” undercoating the car salesman tries to hook you on right after you negotiated the price on your new car. You’re a lost cause anyway, and I’m not gonna fool myself otherwise. Put on that MAGA cap and smile big, because it’s gonna look worse than bell bottom jeans when people look at your photo in about 10 years.

      1. Moses Herzog

        This would have been in 1952. That’s 17 years before he became President. It’s worthy to note that $18,000 would have been a lot more in 1952 than it is now. Maybe some sharper (or more industrious) blog readers can figure out what that is in 2018 dollars. It’s worthy to note the Republican National Committee paid for the advertisement, as stated in the video. The RNC made no secret of the fact they paid for the campaign spot. Maybe even humorous if we think of donald trump cuckservative Reince Priebus circa 2016–2017. There are always “signs” with guys like Nixon and trump, In fact glaring signs along the way. But if you’re watching FOX, WSJ’s corporate sponsored editorial section, or Alex Jones, maybe those “signs” don’t seem so obvious. Well just like Bill O’Reilly wouldn’t molest and verbally abuse umpty-dumpty female co-workers, because O’Reilly is “Mr. Conservative Values” and “he has a family”. And when you purchase a coffee mug that says “Bill O’Reilly” in very large letters part of that “goes to charity”. O’Reilly could “never” do those things. Well Nixon had a family dog. So, as we all know, anyone with a family dog could never steal public dollars. It’s not government welfare if you just steal it with your own hands, is it?? People talk about “the good old days” of America—here are those “good old days”. You know, before LBJ informed many black Americans they had a right to a decent public education and didn’t have to sit in their own refuse. Those were the “good old days” of America:

        I’m certain “Princeton”Kopits cries himself to sleep on nostalgia for this every night.

      2. Moses Herzog

        Another funny repeat of History is, if we note that Nixon was Eisenhower’s Vice-Presidential running mate. “Mr. Christian” “Mr. Jesus Boy When It’s Convenient” Mike Pence used campaign funds to pay for his mortgage etc. From Meg Wagner of NY Daily News:
        “According to 1990 campaign finance records, Pence used $12,867 from his campaign account for personal expenses. That’s the equivalent of about $23,700 in 2016. The payouts included seven $992 mortgage payments and seven of his wife’s $222 car payments. More cash went to buy household groceries, pay off Pence’s credit cards and even cover the costs of participating in golf tournaments.”

        Now the time frame in relation to running for VP would have been different, as it happened in 1990. But it’s really not all that different from Nixon’s slush fund. Not sure if Pence rolled out the family pet to prove his innocence, or if he strolled out the children to prove he was the “True and Fastidious Jesus Boy” his mother loves so much.

        All the “good and true” Jesus boys take campaign funds for golf outings, credit cards, and the wifey’s car payments. Unless they can stroll out the family pet and their young offspring to “objectively prove” their innocence. In which case it’s all a Soros and ACLU conspiracy from “The Tel Aviv Cabal”. I saw it on Alex Jones’ stream and he “proved” the whole thing.–and-it-cost-him-an-election/2016/07/15/90858964-49ed-11e6-bdb9-701687974517_story.html?utm_term=.cabf4ca954e3

  3. pgl

    Pages 2 and 3 do a nice job of summarizing the global macroeconomic forecast but let’s continue with the 1st paragraph:

    ‘Cotton exports are down $1.0 billion from the August forecast to $5.9 billion, primarily due to slowing growth in global demand. Grain and feed exports are forecast up $700 million to $33.8 billion, driven by higher corn and wheat volumes. Livestock, dairy, and poultry exports are down $200 million to $30.1 billion. Declines in poultry and dairy products offset increases in beef and pork products. Horticultural products are unchanged at $35.3 billion. The forecast for exports to China is reduced by $3.0 billion to $9.0 billion, the lowest since fiscal 2007.’

    The damage to US ag exports is rather widespread. But hey – the US is importing more food!

  4. pgl

    I just went back to Menzie’s post about Scotland and optimal currency areas. Excellent discussion by Menzie which Patrick R. Sullivan utterly failed to grasp. First this Donald Luskin minnie me equates the issue of tying one’s currency to the British pound to how banks in Scotland behaved under its banking regulatory regime. He was called on his utter confusion to which LuskinLite fires back:

    ‘Well, Menzie links to Krugman saying;

    ‘But Canada has its own currency, which means that its government can’t run out of money, that it can bail out its own banks if necessary, and more. An independent Scotland wouldn’t. And that makes a huge difference.’

    Canada didn’t have a central bank until sometime in the 1930s, and had a less severe depression than the USA. As far as I know Canadian banks have never been bailed out by their central bank (because they don’t have crises). Their banks more or less regulate themselves, as could Scotland’s, whatever currency unit they choose to use.’

    Actually Canada has a central bank before 1934. It was called the Bank of Montreal. Secondly as Menzie noted – Canada’s depression was as severe as ours. The big problem was that monetary policy in both nations was on a gold standard. Under FDR we got off this gold standard which was a good move. This central feature of monetary policy dovetails with the issues Krugman and Menzie were addressing. But leave it to Patrick R. Sullivan not to get this.

    BTW – the Bank of Canada after WWIi decided to buck the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime and let its currency float. A lot of people suggest that the Canadian grasped what Milton Friedman was writing about these issues way back then. It seems Patrick R. Sullivan even as late as Sept. 2014 never bothered to read what Friedman and others wrote.

  5. Moses Herzog

    I’ve been paying most close attention to NYT’s reporting, picking up the hardcopy most weekdays. And I knew of Leopold from awhile back when he was part of some Aaron Swartz memorial type activities where he discussed FOIA requests (obviously not in person, I watched the LIVE stream, it’s an annual event). But I was definitely “asleep at the switch” that Leopold and this other guy were on the Mueller/trump beat for awhile and dedicating much of their time to it. I am definitely going to start tracking these guy, even going to back archived stuff related to trump, as it seems these guys are ahead of the curve compared to the broader media.

    As a side point, you don’t have to be a credentialed journalist to do an FOIA request if you know the correct protocol of doing that. You can do that for at least Federal and state level agencies, depending on different state’s individual laws. And they can stall and “slow walk” things. But you have those rights in most states, and certainly on the federal level. Menzie, pgi, and even PeakIgnorance (he can read right?? Peaky can do that, eh??) can file an FOIA request if they research the proper way to do that.

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