34 thoughts on ““Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”

  1. Moses Herzog

    Please excuse me if it was mentioned in the post or the adjoining registration link, but will there be a web stream of the occasion and do we need to register to watch the stream?? I guess also I should ask if non-students can register to watch Mr. Rodrik online?? I have not paid any Badger tuition but it sure would be a treat. Of course Mr. Rodrik is an economic superstar in so many facets but he is a “go to” guy on the Turkey situation. I don’t use Twitter regular anymore but his Twitter feed is the best for beneath the surface knowledge on Turkey politics.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Everyone keeps acting like this 737 thing is a complete mystery. But this journalist, Miles O’Brien, seems to semi-defnitively have nailed it down. I don’t know if we can write this in concrete yet, but I would say I find his theory to be a highly probable one:
    https://youtu.be/EfdNQU1wC6A?t=128

    The software glitch is something you saw happen over and over and over again with automobile recalls—-with the manufacturers doing the same exact stunt Boeing appears to be doing now—feigning ignorance when they have a pretty damned good idea what has happened.

    1. ilsm

      Moses,

      I suggest wait for the detailed report and accepting root causes. You might agree with Trump that SW is getting too complex, and with a very few others that human side is becoming diminished or robotic acting on stimuli.. My experience as a systems ‘acquirer’ is not so bleak. I am a bit miffed the Indonesian crash was not better reported and that the report is over (5 months) still “in work”. Preliminary hints on Indonesia are sensor failure that falsely cued the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) the culprit “software”.

      Often software glitches are caused by inputs the designers did not expect. In the case of 737 Max 8/9 there is a switch override, whether the flight manuals, training and simulators worked through overriding MCAS is a different root cause to be attacked.

      I am planning a trip in the US by air week after next……. I entered the USAF in 1972 and have been around airplanes and fliers for too long

  3. Moses Herzog

    Thought I would post this, in light of the recent vote, blocking the “emergency” declaration of dictator-wannabe donald trump, Booger eater Ted Cruz voted against a block of the “emergency” declaration.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMDEfbvm30I

    https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/policy/immigration/article227819689.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SzBEPz6SYU

    Mmmmmmmmm!!!!!! Was it tasty Senator Cruz??
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6Kqj-Z2chA

  4. Steven Kopits

    The topic seems late to me. Balance of UK opinion moved to ‘stay’ in August 2017, a year and a half ago. Brexit is self-evidently dead. I think conservatives are once again feeling on the defensive. The fascist era is over, it’s just not yet buried.

    Also, the framework seems oddly 1990s to me. I would have couched this whole topic very differently.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ “Princeton”Kopits
      La Follette School must be deeply saddened by this news. I propose you do a complementary symposium at the University (Princeton??) of your choosing titled “Pseudo-intellectuals or Lightweights?? How to Defraud White Trash Non-college Rural Citizens in the Age of Trump”.

      “Princeton”Kopits, You can sign books there and offer medicine which improves prostate health or maybe a “shake weight” for “only” $39.99?? Check Alex Jones’ website when brainstorming for product offerings at your symposium. “Shark Tank” TV show is packed full of products that would fit your customer base’s IQ level. Make some cheap t-shirts with funny prints like “Why Use Your Wits?? You’ve got Kopits!!!” or “Tired of Badly Written SNL Skits?? Try Unintentionally Funny Kopits!!!”. You could have your wife or a local actress offer palm readings and fortune-telling at $20 a pop in an adjoining small conference room as you offer your pearls of wisdom on death count statistics after a hurricane. I see big dollar signs on your future Kopits.

    2. Steven Kopits

      Well, the panels are called ‘The Backlash against Trade and Globalization’ and ‘The Backlash against International Cooperation and Institutions’.

      Personally, I think both these trends have reversed. Exhibit 1 is Brexit. It was apparent to me 18 months ago that Brexit was unlikely to happen. Brexit is a big deal, and with more than half of the public against it 18 months ago, and with the pendulum +8 for ‘stay’ in the last yougov poll I saw. Here’s a source:

      “For most of this year, polls have shown remain ahead of leave, typically by four to six points. But in a referendum between staying in the EU and leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated, staying enjoys an 18-point lead: 59-41%.”
      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote

      That’s clearly not a backlash against international cooperation and institutions, but rather a visible sign of those institutions regaining their legitimacy (or more precisely, these issues are fading from a casus belli to an on-going annoyance).

      Similarly, the question arises whether median voter theory applies again. In the last election, it seemed like the poles had squeezed out the middle. This effect appears to have peaked on the Republican side, in part because of the visible, serial policy failures of the Trump administration. On the other hand, the socialist side has been riding high since the election, with AOC and IO making all the running in the press. But if you look at the actual election results, in fact moderate Democrats made all the running. So does the middle re-assert itself, or do the poles continue to dominate? If the poles continue to dominate, then indeed, we’ll see international cooperation and institutions break down. That’s the Bannonesque view.

      I think the middle is reasserting itself. That’s what the numbers say to me. I think that process is already well underway, and I think you missed the turning point, Menzie. And if that’s the case, then the institutions will survive the challenge and a certain calm will reassert itself.

      Now, for me, the more interesting interesting question is whether the underlying conditions which gave rise to the Brexit motivation have indeed ended. I am inclined to believe they have not, specifically for reasons to do with demographics. Can democracy — which in the west has been built on a Ponzi scheme — survive our demographic reckoning? Will people stay in the game if GDP growth is minimal? Does the EU and NATO and the WTO survive in that world? That, to me, is the essential question which I think you are probing — or at least which I would be probing.

      So sure, you can have whatever panels you want. But you’re late to the game.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Stephen Kopits: You’ll excuse me if I trust my published, tenured PhD colleagues on international political economy (and Jeffry Frieden at Harvard, who coauthored Lost Decades with me) and Chad Bown and Mary Lovely from PIIE, and Phillip Levy (formerly CEA under Bush), all well-published PhDs in economics, over an untenured person with a Master’s degree, on this particular issue. Apologies.

      2. Steven Kopits

        Yes, I think the quandary is prevalent in the economics profession as a whole. I have the same issue speaking with my uncle. Right now, I don’t know that the profession fells confident whether it is using 1990s rules or post-2008 rules.

        For example, does the IMF’s 60% debt-to-GDP ratio still hold? Larry Summers seems unsure:

        “Long-term structural declines in interest rates mean that policymakers should reconsider the traditional fiscal approach that has often wrong-headedly limited worthwhile investments in such areas as education, health care, and infrastructure. Yet many remain fixated on cutting spending, especially on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicaid. That is a mistake. Politicians and policymakers should focus on urgent social problems, not deficits.

        “But they shouldn’t ignore fiscal constraints entirely. The deficit fundamentalists are right that the debt cannot be allowed to grow forever. And the government cannot set budget policy without any limiting principles or guides as to what is and what is not possible or desirable.”

        This is Larry Summers — at the top of the business cycle with a trillion dollar deficit! And he’s not sure he wants a cyclically balanced budget? Incredible.

        So, if you can tell me what mortgage interest rate and inflation/deflation pairs with a falling population in Japan, hey, I will yield the sword. But you don’t know, do you? And guess what. Neither does Larry. And that matters a whole lot, because if you get that wrong, your democracy could blow up in a matter of weeks, certainly in the case of Japan. So, yes, I think the profession as a whole is reasonably lost in the woods, because they don’t know whether the rules they learned in school and used most of their professional lives still apply.

        1. pgl

          “This is Larry Summers — at the top of the business cycle with a trillion dollar deficit! And he’s not sure he wants a cyclically balanced budget? Incredible.”

          What is incredible is how you so blatantly misrepresent what Summers was saying. Cherry picking something out of context and wrapping it with your usual stupid spin. Lord – your comments are an insult to everyone’s intelligence. Please stop this charade as it is pure intellectual garbage.

          1. Steven Kopits

            Here’s Krugman, same topic.

            “The issue in question is “paygo,” a rule requiring that increases in spending be matched by offsetting tax increases or cuts elsewhere.

            “Furthermore, there are things the government should be spending money on even when jobs are plentiful — things like fixing our deteriorating infrastructure and helping children get education, health care and adequate nutrition. Such spending has big long-run payoffs, even in purely monetary terms.

            “Meanwhile, the federal government can borrow money very cheaply — the interest rate on inflation-protected 10-year bonds is only about 1 percent. These low borrowing costs, in turn, reflect what seems to be a persistent savings glut — that is, the private sector wants to save more than it’s willing to invest, even with very low interest rates.

            “Given this reality, why not put some of those excess savings to work in high-return public investments? Should we really refuse to spend money repairing sewer systems or providing child nutrition if doing so raises the deficit a bit, with only a minor impact on future interest costs?

            “So am I saying that Democrats should completely ignore budget deficits? No; if and when they’re ready to move on things like some form of Medicare for All, the sums will be so large that asking how they’ll be paid for will be crucial.

            “But while fiscal prudence is always necessary, for Democrats to put spending in a straitjacket — especially when Republicans have shown themselves completely irresponsible — looks like a bad move.”

            Hardly paints a picture of a guy who’s keen to balance the budget at the top of the cycle. No 60% rule for Mr. Krugman.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/03/opinion/house-democrats-budget-deficit.html

            Now let me quote Kopits (July 2017):

            “Nor is the US immune. Like Japan, the US now runs structural fiscal deficits, even at the top of the business cycle. These deficits are coming in higher than forecast, just as America’s 65+ age cohort is set to increase by half to 2025. The Obamacare repeal and replace dilemma reflects just this tension. On the one hand, ‘compassionate conservatives’ – and voters – want universal healthcare coverage. On the other hand, the funding for such coverage is not readily available from tax revenues. Thus, the US social safety net appears to be at a turning point, with enormous pressures to solve the problem by resorting to ever-increasing debt. If inflation and interest rates are low, why not borrow more? That’s what they did in Japan.”

            http://www.prienga.com/blog/2017/7/20/japans-lost-century

            So is the 60% rule dead? Is that now the official position of the economics community? Borrow til you drop? Are we no longer seeking to balance the budget at the top of the cycle? Or have we concluded that low interest rates will last forever and therefore we can lever the country up to 200%, or perhaps even 300%, of GDP? Is that now the considered prudent opinion of the professional economics community?

    1. 2slugbaits

      No evidence of any reduction since Jul 2016 in weekly hours of nonsupervisory production employees in the leisure and hospitality sector:
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES7000000007

      No evidence of any reduction the number of employees in food and drink establishments
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES7072200001

      No evidence of any reduction in the number of nonsupervisory production employees in leisure and hospitality:
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES7000000006

      And we do see an increase in the average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory production employees in the leisure and hospitality sector:
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES7000000008

      I’d say that those restaurant owners are blowing smoke up that reporter’s butt. Here’s some shocking news: small business owners and managers tend to lie about their business operations. They lie a lot. Sometimes they don’t even recognize that they’re lying. If a restaurant owner has to cut staff because of a downturn in business or because of mismanagement, it’s highly unlikely that the manager is going to blame himself or herself. Employees are always the scapegoats. That’s just how it is.

        1. pgl

          Oh wow – a survey of NYC’s small business people. Dude – I live in NYC and these people bitch about every little thing. This survey is not evidence of what is actually happening in NYC’s economy. I would think even a village idiot would get that but not Princeton Stephen. Lord – you are not only a right winger but you are dumber than a rock.

        2. 2slugbaits

          Steven Kopits
          Yes, those are national numbers, but quite a few states and localities recently raised their minimum wage, not just NYC. So if a higher minimum wage had some adverse impact on unemployment or hours worked, then I would have expected it to show up in national numbers. And of all places, I would think that NYC could probably handle a $15 minimum wage better than restaurants in most other parts of the country. Don’t misunderstand me. I’m not saying that at some point a minimum wage wouldn’t hurt employment, I just don’t see a lot of evidence that we’ve hit that point yet. That tells me that (so far) higher minimum wages are coming out of restaurant owner monopsony rents and not restaurant owner profits.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ 2slugbaits
        Good Sir, are you disparaging the good name of “Libertynation”?!?!?!?!? How dare you!!! Why, I haven’t seen a reference that impeccable on this blog since Barkley Junior’s Quora citation. How dare you cast aspersions on the great Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Sarah Cowgill!!!!!

        Take it back right now, or I’m volunteering “Princeton”Kopits for a pistol duel against you, tomorrow morning at sunrise.

        The “study” (read as restaurant industry propaganda) “Princeton”Kopits quotes is from an industry association of restaurants. Look at the names on this list who funded this “study” Kopits cites and tell us all these people don’t have a personal and commercial interest in keeping food service wages as low as they possibly can:
        https://thenycalliance.org/about

        1. pgl

          Well done. Princeton Stephen is really looking like the fool of the year for citing this little survey.

    2. pgl

      Liberty Nation? Princeton Steven goes far, far, far right in extremism here. I would no more trust the spin we get from this group than I would from a Trump tweet. Yep – Princeton Steven has shredded any credibility he has ever had with this one. Oh wait – I have never trusted any of his intellectual garbage in the past – so no loss!

      1. Steven Kopits

        If you bothered to check, you’d see that the quote comes from the study above. Pay attention.

        1. pgl

          LOL! We have already commented on your highly biased survey – which is NOT a study. Hey Princeton Stephen – keep this up and Brad DeLong will have to annoint you The Stupidest Man Alive!

  5. Moses Herzog

    I just noticed Mary Lovely is part of this symposium just now (I’m fast to the take, aren’t I??). She is quite the gem on trade analysis. WOW, at least two Economics superstars in this thing. Great score by La Follette.

  6. Moses Herzog

    Thank goodness “good people with guns are saving us from bad people with guns”. Hard to imagine what would happen if that wasn’t the case. The assailant was at the first mosque 10 minutes. Police arrived sometime after that.
    https://www.apnews.com/ce9e1d267af149dab40e3e5391254530

    Unrelated but still interesting. In this separate “incident” the man shot (and his wife also was shot dead) owned two pistols and an AR-15 rifle. Not sure if he was “one of the good guys with guns defending us from bad guys with guns”. Most likely he was shot with one of the guns he himself had purchased. Maybe if Michael Logan Walker was still alive we could ask him what he thought of his wife being shot with a gun he himself had purchased. Well, I’m not sure if the NRA advised him that it was a great idea to have guns in the house. Maybe it was Sarah Palin who told Michael Logan Walker it was a good idea to buy 3 guns and have them laying around the house?? Maybe it was Mike Pence. We know Mike Pence thinks it’s awesome when people have concealed weapons in their car in school parking lots. Beings that Michael Logan Walker was shot with one of his own guns I guess we’ll never be able to ask him who gave him that bright idea in “the reddest state in the nation”.
    https://apnews.com/f2cb7c0df91c41fdb3fe09a8c8d4c02b

  7. Moses Herzog

    Shall we start the official countdown on how long it takes the “VSG” to start badmouthing this woman on Twitter??
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna983561

    And a secondary question (more of the rhetorical nature for those of you not familiar with my “humor”)—- Is donald trump going to tell us that Miss Falzone has been “offered a deal” by Mueller, when she is under no such pressure or agreement?? Miss Falzone is getting nothing for her testimony other than at least one wasted day and absurdist questions from Republicans.

  8. Rick Stryker

    Steven,

    I’ve always enjoyed reading your comments. Too bad all you get is personal abuse from these clowns.

    1. Steven Kopits

      Yes, I have greatly reduced my commenting here. Why would I want to share space with pgl?

      If you’re interested in what I’m writing — mostly on illegal immigration — drop me a line at [email protected], and I’ll put you on my emailing list. That goes for other readers as well.

      We’ve had some success. I was on Fox and Friends a couple of weeks ago, made Drudge twice last week, had my work republished by the White House — and even, incredibly, had Breitbart do a piece on market-based visas. Right now, I am still triangulating the White House. Hope to get in in the next month or so. If we do, I think we’re off to the races, and we’ll see market-based visas emerge as a White House area of interest, if not explicit policy. That would be huge, for conservatives, migrants, legal Hispanics, Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries, and frankly, for the US as a whole.

      So, yes, I am not here on Econbrowser that much anymore, but I am still around.

      1. Rick Stryker

        Steven,

        Sounds like you are getting a lot of traction. That’s great. I do read your blog. I’ll drop you an email.

      2. Moses Herzog

        @ Princeton”Kopits
        While your ability to decipher and distribute anything of truth may be in strong doubt, nobody on God’s green Earth (or I guess it’s actually more blue) could ever doubt you’re a master of self-promotion. Assuming you actually have a Master’s degree from Columbia University (a claim I still cannot digest) if the university provost is not emailing you to “please, for the love of God, stop mentioning you graduated here”, as the university provost I might tell you that we would not discourage you from telling people you had a Phd in Self-marketing.

  9. Moses Herzog

    You know that you have a real “winner” on your hands as a national leader, when he threatens violence against law-abiding citizens. This is the orange colored mammal who laughingly discusses ‘the law”, “the courts”, “judges” etc.

    Orange Excrement/the “VSG” says:
    “I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.”

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/trump-threatens-violence-if-democrats-dont-support-him.html

    I’ll tell you, if it wasn’t for Menzie having to keep dialogue civil here, I would tell donald trump where he can put his “tough” small hands and his “tough” small d*ck, and many other things that are even apt to violate my own standards of excessive vulgarity. This is like that fat pudgy kid in grade school who’s afraid of his own shadow telling you he’s going to get his older brother or uncle to beat you up. Everyone knew that kid was d*ckless. And we know who is the d*ckless wonder in this case as well.

  10. Zi Zi

    Harvard Professor Roberto Mangabeira Unger argues that the root problem of West low growth, trade disputes and disintegration is in the centralised control of resources and mass production. He argues for **decentralised production**, **decentralised access to resources**, and high-energy democracy in order to lead to a **knowledge economy**.

    Super incisive. Whenever you can hear him talk, go.

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