[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trend 4/16/2019] Reader JBH writes:
“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”
I laughed and laughed and laughed when I read this. Why? Take a look:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and stochastic trend (red). Stochastic trend estimated using 2010-2016 data, and regression of first log difference on a constant. Source: BLS March 2019 employment situation release, and author’s calculations.
We are doing as well as we were from 2010-2016, even after massive tax cuts and the end of spending restraints amounting in the trillions.
But kudos to JBH for livin’ in a fantasy world … it for sure is more pleasant than my world. Thanks, Drumpf!
Update, 4/12/2019, 4:15PM Pacific: Reader CoRev requests:
Can you provide the raw data used?
Here is the dataset used, directly downloaded from FRED.
Update, 4/16/2019, 9AM Pacific: Reader CoRev has provided his check-file on my trend analysis. Without comment, here it is: