In the wake of the discussion of Figure 1-6 in the ERP, I thought it might be useful for me to collect up questions about puzzling or misleading graphs/tables or conclusions in the Report.
The entire document is here.
I don’t think I have ever made a similar request. However, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a similar CEA “massage the message” in quite the same way. Even the G.W. Bush CEA (of which I was briefly a part of) did not make such blatantly misleading graphics as highlighted in this post.
Clarification (3PM): I’ll then compile the contributions with my comments in a new post.
By the way, the more transparently reinterpretation of the ERP, 2019 graph…
Figure 1: Chinn’s reinterpretation of ERP, 2019 Figure 1-6. Trend growth rates calculated using log differences. Nonresidential investment based on reported aggregates. Equipment investment calculations uses data up to 2017Q3 for the pre-TCJA period. Source: BEA 2018Q3 final release, and author’s calculations.