An Event Study: Release of “Transcript” of Trump-Zelensky Call

Interesting to see how market prices (Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?) jumped, as of 8am Pacific today, as recorded by PredictIt:

46 thoughts on “An Event Study: Release of “Transcript” of Trump-Zelensky Call

  1. 2slugbaits

    So after reading the transcript I was struck not only by Don “Corleone” Trump’s clumsy quid pro quo, but also by the unabashed and shameless way that Zelensky sucked up and flattered Trump. It reminded me of the kind of stuff I used to hear from Russian generals after the fall of the USSR. Their flattery of the US military was so over-the-top that they had to know only a sucker would believe them. Is that kind of ingratiating flattery something that a survival habit Russian generals and Ukrainian politicians picked up back in the Cold War days?

    1. pgl

      The edited transcript Trump allowed us to read was truly damning. But right on cue – Trump says it clears him and Senator Toady (Lindsey Graham) has decided we should move on as there was no collusion. I can’t tell if Graham is really this incredibly stupid or he just thinks the citizens of South Carolina are total morons.

  2. Moses Herzog

    @ 2slugbaits
    It is a “reconstruction” of the transcript. Now if it is labeled a “reconstruction” of the transcript, what are we to make of that?? [ rhetorical question, in 2019, I now have to flat out state it’s a rhetorical question as some idiot like Barkley Junior will think it’s an earnest question ] Until we hear the words directly out of the whistleblowers’ mouth themself or themselves, the “reconstruction” of the phone call is as a good as a used piece of toilet paper.

    This is similar to Michael Cohen, being the man taking part in the bank robbery, and then telling people he has “attorney client privilege” because he’s representing the other bank robber in the case. You don’t ask the bank robber himself for a “reconstruction” of the events of the robbery. The fact that people as educated as yourself can buy such a jump in logic (that anything in that “reconstruction” even borders truth) tells us A LOT about where we are in this country right now.

  3. Bruce Hall

    So, on page 4 Trump comments about an investigation into Hunter Biden that Joe Biden bragged he successfully shut down. And the Ukrainian president said he was aware of the situation and the next Ukrainian prosecutor would look into it.

    Well, that’s just terrible. It would be as if the Democrats had paid for Russian information to get dirt on Trump… except Trump neither offered nor gave money for cooperation or further investigation. But, but, but… it was implied!

    1. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Do you know anything about the Hunter Biden story? Anything at all? I mean anything that didn’t come from the Fox Noise spin room. To begin with, the stuff with the prosecutor ended in 2013 but Hunter Biden didn’t join the firm until 2014. And the problem with the prosecutor was that he himself was corrupt…that’s why Veep Joe Biden and the entire Obama Administration and most European leaders and the IMF were all over Ukraine to fire the guy. Every major news outlet around the globe has investigated this story umpteen times and they’ve all come to the same conclusion…except of course the liars at Fox Noise. Sheesh, get a clue. If you want to get a summary of the facts, see this:
      Don’t be as dense as CoRev.

      1. pgl

        Nice summary of the real story but to answer your question – the ONLY thing that Brucie knows about anything is BS fed to him by the right wing spin machine.

      2. Moses Herzog

        @ 2slugbaits
        Bruce is being disingenuous here. We do have people like that on this blog—not just the idiots like PeakTrader, Ed Hanson, and CoRev–but people who are disingenuous when it assists them in making arguments they themselves know are bad arguments.

        Let me make an attempt to classify the categories we have in our little camp here, ok?? Let me be so bold—-

        Flat out absolute idiots—PeakTrader, CoRev. Ed Hanson

        People who know better, but love “muddying the waters” and are 98% disingenuous— Rick Stryker, “Princeton”Kopits (below average intelligence, but smart enough to piece things together), Bruce Hall…. probably others here I don’t remember at the moment.

        Now—for those of you not paying every good attention, or just not very perceptive about human beings, I have done you the huge favor of differentiating the two categories of “our usual suspects” to you. And let me add something else—donald trump is wise to all this shit and the crimes he commits every day but will play the village idiot on the law and presidential protocol and decorum when it suits his purposes

    2. pgl

      Trump is a blatant liar. This line that you choose to repeat as if it were a fact has been thoroughly debunked.

      Of course you are so incredibly inept at basic research skills and any ability to discern total BS from actual fact is well known. So I guess we can excuse your latest incredibly STUPID comment.

    3. pgl

      “Trump referred to the five-page document as a transcript. But the memo itself cautions that the text is “not a verbatim transcript of a discussion” but rather “the notes and recollections of Situation Room Duty Officers and [National Security Council] policy staff assigned to list
      en and memorialize the conversation in written form as the conversation takes place.”

      Of course Bruce Hall would not know the difference. Nor would he get that Trump edited this version before releasing it. And of course any statement that Trump made about the alleged historical facts are very likely to be blatant lies. Yes all of this is over the head of Bruce Hall. Of course it is over the head of your standard Trump minion.

      1. baffling

        one has to think, if this is the best “edited” version of the conversation they could come up with without directly lying, imagine what the original transcript would say?

    4. noneconomist

      Ukraine needs millions to counter Biden intrigue? Bidens are directing Russian tanks? Got it.
      Maybe if Zelensky can, as Trump suggests, work things out with Putin, and then the Bidens, who—let’s be real—are far more threatening to the world order than Putin.

      1. pgl

        “Maybe if Zelensky can, as Trump suggests, work things out with Putin”.

        Yea I saw that interview where Trump told Zelensky basically lots of luck buddy. Presidential leadership at the UN – NOT!

    5. pgl

      “Trump neither offered nor gave money for cooperation or further investigation.”

      Really? Oh yea – his Sec. of State did this for him. Back in 2016 his son did this for him. But Trump personally was not directly involved so NO COLLUSION.

      Lord Bruce – we knew you were a Trump sycophant and rather dim witted to boot. But this dim witted? Amazing!

    6. Dave

      “Well, that’s just terrible. It would be as if the Democrats had paid for Russian information to get dirt on Trump… except Trump neither offered nor gave money for cooperation or further investigation. But, but, but… it was implied!”

      No one here is trying to argue that there was an offer of money. There was clearly a request for Ukraine to do the investigation. That is all that is necessary. But, to your point, please note the “though”. What is the “though” doing in that transcript? Ukraine had just asked to begin the next steps to get javelin weapons. Trump says, I have a favor to ask “though.” Quid Pro Quo is not required to make this a crime. It already is a crime. However, there is a clear quid pro quo here: look into Biden and I’ll get you the weapons.

  4. pgl

    Even the DNI may be turning on Trump:

    ‘WaPo: DNI Threatened Resignation Over Concern WH Would Have Him Stonewall Congress

    The acting director of national intelligence threatened to resign over concerns that the White House might try to force him to keep Congress in the dark during upcoming testimony, the Washington Post reported Wednesday, citing unnamed current and former officials familiar with the matter. Joseph Maguire is set to testify in public and behind closed doors on Thursday about a still-veiled whistleblower’s complaint that reportedly involves President Donald Trump’s attempt to pressure Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Contrary to standard procedure, Maguire has not shared the complaint with Congress — lawmakers only learned of the complaint when the inspector general of the intelligence community notified them of its existence earlier this month. Per the Post’s sources, Maguire “warned the White House that he was not willing to withhold information from Congress,” in the paper’s words. The Post reported Maguire’s threat of resignation was meant to force the White House’s hand on the decision of whether or not to invoke executive privilege.’

    Just wow! Oh wait – I left out the reply from the White House:

    ‘Without specifying which parts of the story she was responding to, White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham tweeted that the Post’s report was “not true.”’

    Seriously Stephanie? When Maguire does testify you are going to look like a stupid little tramp!

  5. Barkley Rosser

    Almost certainly Trump will be impeached, now that “National Security Seven” freshmen Dems in the House have come out for under the condition that the “transcrpt” says what it does, which it does. But there will be on conviction and no removal, and it may in the end help Trump in his reelection more than hurt him.

    Two signs of this: The first is that the Fox News bubble has its line, and they will repeat it and pound it all the way, with Trump himself having it in his phone call. It is a lie, but Trump followers watching Fox will never know. It is the claim that the “good prosecutor” (Trump’s line in the “transcript”) was fired because of pressure from Bifden to stop him from investigating Biden’s son, which is totally false. He was fired for not investigating widespread corruption he was deeply involved in.

    The other sign is that I follow Daily Kos that has a line of ongoing poll results, which barely move. For months the poll on impeaching Trump has been 45% for and 48% against. About a half hour ago, it moved to 45% for and 49% against.

    I agree at this point Pelosi and the House Dems simply must move forward as a matter of principle. But nobody should be under any delusions that this is going to help get Trump out of office sooner than 2025.

    1. 2slugbaits

      I agree. This will rally the knuckle draggers. It makes it much harder to try and win key rust belt states by attracting disgruntled white working class voters who have been screwed by Trump’s policies. That puts the Democrats in the position of having to whip up their own base and whip them up enough to offset the lost potentially persuadable Trump voters. That’s like filling an inside straight. If the Dems want to impeach Trump, then do it sometime after the Nov 2020 election and 20 Jan 2021. It will accomplish the main goal, which is to shame Trump and his toadie supporters.

    2. pgl

      “But nobody should be under any delusions that this is going to help get Trump out of office sooner than 2025.”

      You are likely right that the Senate will not convict but I’m willing to bet the ranch that Trump’s last day will be 1/20/2021. As the truth drips out, all the dumbest of all people will vote for Trump. Yea – 2016 proved there are a LOT of dumb voters. BUT!

  6. don

    More should be said on the tie between Trump’s call and the earlier denial of aid to Ukraine. How flimsy were the stated reasons for the denial? This seems to me to be the crux of the case.
    Equity (and currency) traders seem to have concluded that the threat to Trump posed by the Ukraine call weakened after the call transcript came out. (Any alternative interpretation of the market responses today?)

    1. pgl

      Trump delayed that aid because Ukraine is corrupt. Oh wait, that’s not it. Trump delayed it because the Europeans were not doing their share. Oh wait – the Europeans are doing more than we are. OK, let’s see. Oh yea – he delayed the aid because of Hillary’s emails. THAT’S IT!

  7. joseph

    Bruce Hall: “So, on page 4 Trump comments about an investigation into Hunter Biden that Joe Biden bragged he successfully shut down.”

    Trump says a lot of things that are lies. You are perpetuating the lie. I challenge you to provide evidence of your claim “about an investigation into Hunter Biden that Joe Biden bragged he successfully shut down.”

    We’ll wait. Oh, by the way, Breitbart is not evidence.

    1. sammy


      ” I challenge you to provide evidence of your claim “about an investigation into Hunter Biden that Joe Biden bragged he successfully shut down.”

      Here is video of Joe Biden bragging that he got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired or else he would withhold $100B in US loan guarantees:–dj2-CY

      1. pgl

        Whoever wrote that title to the youtube is even dumber than you. Biden was there because that corrupt prosecutor was NOT investigating. Damn CoRev – you couldn’t even bother to listen to the youtube before believing this dishonest and stupid title? You are one dumb dude!

    2. joseph

      CoRev, I’m failing to find where Biden said that he shut down an investigation into Hunter Biden. Still nothing?

      1. pgl

        CoRev did not listen to the youtube. He read that dishonest and dumb caption or title or whatever and that’s it.

        CoRev – Trump’s dumbest sycophant!

      2. CoRev

        Just one reference: “In 2016, when he was vice president, Biden pushed hard for the former Ukrainian prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin, to be fired for corruption. At the time, Shokin was leading an investigation into Burisma, whose board Hunter Biden sat on.”

        This article actually gives more background into Burisma Oil and the Biden relationships.
        Burisma was under investigation for money laundering, and coincidentally Hunter Biden was convicted of an unrelated ponzi scheme last year.

        That actually more evidence than was available in the latest Dem attack of Trump.

      3. 2slugbaits

        joseph Just remember that CoRev supported and twice voted for Nixon. And he’s proud of it. ‘Nuff said.

  8. Not Trampis

    two comments from down under but before that Moses lay off Barkes

    1) the transcript is not verbatim. Hmm
    2) Trump has again shown himself not be completely immoral. This reflects badly on ‘Evangelicals ‘in the USA. I do thank God that at least here in OZ evangelicals have some understanding of the bible instead of imitating the Israelites in the Old Testament

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Not Trampis
      Would you criticize a man who tells you a woman polling behind Andrew Yang in at least one respected poll (Emerson) in her HOME state, and polling consistently 6%-7% in many states, was going to seriously clash swords with Joe Biden in South Carolina to win the state?? Or just let him go on….. ??? Asking for a friend……

  9. Moses Herzog

    Something Tulsi did/said recently disappointed me, but I’m not gonna specify it because I don’t wanna feed chum to the Virginia scum pond. But I still support Representative Gabbard as a candidate and thought this was pretty cool:

    BTW, “Rambo: Last Blood” is AWESOME!!!! So go see it if you’re on the fence whether to go or not.

    1. 2slugbaits

      One of my brothers is a retired English prof (emeritus) and an old friend of David Morrell (the author of First Blood) from college days. When the movie came out a million years ago my brother told me that Morrell intended First Blood as a sly comment intended to prove the miserably low standards of the reading public.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ 2slugbaits
        I’m not sure how to respond to this. I know Morrell made comments on social media he did not like “Last Blood” and felt some kind of remorse for his name being associated with it. Let me say that I trust both you and your brother’s statement on how Morrell portrayed that to your brother. However I am cynical as to how that is truly how Morrell felt in his mind. For starters, if you read other of Morrell’s books, it’s not like they are on some “higher plain” from “First Blood”. None of his books are to be taken as “literature” in the more snobbish sense of the term. Solid books, good books, but not “literature”. I think writers strangely sometimes back away from being sincere to their works, and sometimes say they wrote something “as a lark” because they can’t admit that something many people lambast as being “shallow” in nature, “commonplace”, or a work of “pulp” was a serious effort on their own part.

        At the risk of opening myself to some rib shots here on the blog about my lack of intelligence or whatever, I have a pretty deep affection to the “Rambo: First Blood” film. I consider it to be iconic in the art of film making, and deeply moving on some levels. And possibly even a “classic”. I think it speaks to certain people who feel “cut off” or isolated from society (U.S. military veterans or otherwise).

        I think it’s genuinely fascinating what you said, and I’m glad you shared it here. I believe you and your brother 100% as to how Morrell portrayed it to your brother—but tend to doubt whether Morrell in actuality felt that way when he was writing it.

        For the record, I do not consider “Last Blood” to be iconic, but just more a fun B-movie for those who have deep affection to the Rambo series, and “good enough” for the Rambo canon. Whereas “First Blood” I actually view to be an iconic film worth remembering over a longer time frame.

  10. pgl

    The Whistle Blower memo is out and is being read on Morning Joe. Barr is a lying. Trump’s reason is deeper than we could ever imagine. Quid pro quo is proven. And a full blown cover up was being carried out. Trump if he had an ounce of brains would resign by close of the business day. If not – the House will impeach. The Senate? Who knows how many sycophants and traitors will stay with Trump but if it is less than 34 – he will be removed from office.

  11. pgl

    Gee – Trump has talked to Zelensky as early as April 21. But this does not involve the Bidens:

    ‘is belief that Ukraine was involved in the start of the investigations into Russian election interference in 2016 and the Trump campaign’s potential involvement. His ire was first stoked by the National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine releasing damaging documents on money earmarked for former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort by a Russia-aligned party in Ukraine. Trump held that distrust close after a delegation of Americans went to visit Zelensky at his inauguration, dismissing their positive reports. “They’re terrible people,” Trump said of Ukrainian politicians. “They’re all corrupt and they tried to take me down.”He clung closer to his belief that Ukraine was out to get him as investigations into his interactions with Russia ramped up.’

    In other words, Trump wanted to make sure Ukraine would no longer investigate the actual corruption by Trump’s minions. But of course Ukraine had to manufacture alleged corruption against the Bidens.

  12. pgl

    Watched the DNI testimony. I actually felt bad for this guy as he was in a tough spot. Nunes of course was his usual jackass lying and diverting. But most of the questions and testimony put Trump under the bus.

    Of course the Donald is now calling the Whistle Blower is a spy and a traitor who needs to be shot. Unhinged as ever!

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