State level GDP data for 2019Q3 are out today. If you were wondering, Wisconsin lagged both the US and Minnesota. Since 18Q4 (the last full Walker quarter), Wisconsin growth has matched Minnesota growth.
Figure 1: Log real GDP for Minnesota (blue), for Wisconsin (red) and US (black), all normalized to 2011Q1=0. Light orange shading denotes Walker and Dayton administrations. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
The much touted Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit (MAC) is phased in starting in 2013Q1; it is hard to see an acceleration vis a vis the rest of the nation (or neighbor Minnesota) in the graph.
Indeed, WI manufacturing value added is only 4.4% higher than in 2013Q1; MN is 15.2%(!) without a manufacturing tax credit. That’s not proof positive that the MAC was ineffective, but surely suggests questions.