From ABC News today:
“Analysts concluded [a novel coronavirus pandemic] could be a cataclysmic event,” one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. “It was then briefed multiple times to” the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.
From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis…
We need the PDB declassified and released, to understand the full magnitude of the public policy disaster this administration has visited upon America, just like this PDB of August 6, 2001 “Bin Laden determined to strike in US” was released.
The Federal government could have known as early as November? Yes we knew Trump had that PDB on January 3. We know the WHO warned the world in mid January. Of course the Dumbass in Chief now wants to cut off funding for the WHO because they got something wrong? Close adviser wrote a memo on January 25. But to listen to Trump – he never read that memo? I guess the Dumbass in Chief did not even read his own PDB.
Maybe all that tweeting and checking out the legs of the blond hottie on Fox and Friends has gotten in the way of Trump actually being President. Nixon was the most corrupt President until Trump. Hoover was the most incompetent President until Trump. And yet his sycophants on Fox are declaring victory over COVID19. MAGA!
“The Federal government could have known as early as November?”
I don’t think that’s quite right. There was no COVID-19 in early november. Rather, the Federal Government had run a “war game” type analysis of what would happen if a deadly coronavirus were to arise. The conclusions were stark. We were not prepared for this. It just so happens this all was done right on the eve of actually having a coronavirus pandemic. Of course the rest of your analysis is spot on.
I know I live in Australia but sorry surely Coolidge is a challenger for both cate gories although Nixon and hoover are good candidates
Trump’s PDB is Fox & Friends, period. If information is not there, Trump has no clue about it. All of our intelligence people should be feeding information directly to Fox & Friends everyday. Otherwise, it is all wasted effort.
They lost credibility with the public and with the administration because of the Russian collusion dossier and all the related stores that were intended to take down the administration. The media did so as well. They really didn’t make any pretense that they were impartial analysts.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders reemerges!
Tyler Perry can manage how to make America a better place, and how to actually help the working class. Apparently Tyler’s figured out the deep concept, that when your country goes into a difficult recession, you don’t hand out money to large irresponsible TBTF banks and “SIFI” insurance companies that don’t take their fiduciary commitments seriously and are the source of the problem. And Mr. Perry doesn’t even have one of those disgusting dirty Puh-huds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Dq-elFFoJA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i_iXFcPWXA
If you aren’t emotionally moved by that, you need to give up being part of the human race.
Only the most devoted conformist is naive enough to believe that Hoover was an”incompetent” president.
Yea – the 1930 recovery was just awesome!
Along those lines, it’s useful to remember that Keynes’ General Theory was published in 1936. In 1930-32, when Hoover was President and the Great Depression was ongoing, it was hardly clear that a huge fiscal stimulus was the “right” economic response to the problems the country faced, unlike responding to a pandemic or “Bin Laden determined to strike in U.S.” combined with earlier warnings about hijacking airplanes.
Was Hoover a pragmatist? Was he too ideologically rigid to confront the obstacles facing him? And did his personal beliefs help or hinder the steps he did take? Did voters and the larger public view him as helping or hindering massive unemployment?
You know – rather than listening to MAGA hat wearing idiots like Trump and Bruce Hall, try listening to these scientists in Asia testing some treatments created in California:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vl_eMXMQho&t=304s
Of course they are doing busy to talk about anti-malaria snake oil so Trump and Bruce Hall will not make money off of these trials. Oh well!
I’m trying hard to “tone down” my usual tirades, because I think it’s better to try and be positive in these sectors of time where people feel a little trampled. So……. I am going to contain my usual jacka$$ self and just say “presented without comment”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-live-news-global-cases-uk-us-usa-worst-daily-death-toll-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e8ed4438f085d226cfd5b34#block-5e8ed4438f085d226cfd5b34
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/china-pivots-to-tackle-silent-covid-19-carriers-as-us-says-a-quarter-of-cases-may-have-no-symptoms
OK, I changed my mind, I can’t contain myself. Can someone tell me, for the love of God, why ANY government or authority would ONLY include asymptomatic cases in daily tallies?!?!?!?!?!?! Expressed another way: Why the F— would you not include the ones that are showing obvious symptoms in the “tallies”??? I have NEVER heard of this before. I know mainland China officials always like to do things different but do we really have to verify racist stereotypes related to fire drills?? I mean, I’m honest to God ready to be told I’m being a complete jerk here, if someone could just tell me WTF the logic there is. I’ll be happy to post an apology when someone can show me the logic there.
This could start to get pretty bad, if you tabulate the possible deaths and diseases which come out of a food shortage, and then add that on to say, the total that will have died from the COVID-19 by say, the end of July:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/27/back-poor-countries-fighting-covid-19-with-trillions-or-face-disaster-g20-told
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-letter-to-g20-governments-by-erik-berglof-et-al-2020-04
Some heavy hitter economists as signatories—including Dani Rodrik and Joseph Stiglitz.
The ABC report is false!
Chinese doctors detected and reported an unknown pneumonia cluster in Wuhan on December 27-28, 2019. A Wuhan health authority study was begun and warning issued on December 28-30 and the Chinese CDC began investigation and notified the WHO on December 30-31. The public and international press were notified on December 31….
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178756.shtml
February 6, 2020
Ringing the alarm
By Fan Wei, Yang Cheng and Cui Meng – Wuhan
________________________________
Wuhan doctor awarded for making first warning of novel disease before outbreak
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_coronavirus
January 29, 2020
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951662.htm
April 6, 2020
China publishes timeline on COVID-19 information sharing, int’l cooperation
You know not everyone in the US is as stupid as Donald Trump. No – our intel people were seeing this. In fact people in the Obama Administration worried about something like this as early as 2014. Susan Rice left the Trump with a 69 page game plan. Something the Trump Administration apparently lost before reading.
But nice job of pretending to be Condi Rice II.
ltr says a bunch of stuff that proves he can’t read.
Dude. Please. Your publication of the timeline is irrelevant. You are confused. The ABC report is not false in any way shape or form. The president was briefed on the possible disaster that could happen if a novel deadly coronavirus were to arise. The briefing wasn’t about COVID-19 per se, because it hadn’t arisen yet. But the president was fully briefed on the need for fast, swift, decisive testing, tracking, and contaiment. When his moment came to shine, he did (and is still doing) the exact opposite.
Extensive timeline through March 31, 2020:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951662.htm
April 6, 2020
China publishes timeline on COVID-19 information sharing, int’l cooperation
BEIJING — The following timeline was arranged in chronological order.
Late December 2019
— The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in central China’s Hubei Province detected cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.
Dec. 30, 2019
— The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued an urgent notification to medical institutions under its jurisdiction, ordering efforts to appropriately treat patients with pneumonia of unknown cause.
Dec. 31, 2019
— The National Health Commission (NHC) made arrangements in the wee hours, sending a working group and an expert team to Wuhan to guide epidemic response and conduct on-site investigations.
— The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released a briefing on its website about the pneumonia outbreak in the city, confirming 27 cases and telling the public not to go to enclosed public places or gather. It suggested wearing face masks when going out.
— Starting Dec. 31, 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released briefings on the pneumonia outbreak in accordance with the law.
January 2020
Jan. 1
— The NHC set up a leading group to determine the emergency response to the epidemic. The group convened meetings on a daily basis since then.
Jan. 2
— The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) received the first batch of samples of four patients from Hubei Province and began pathogen identification.
— The NHC came up with a set of guidelines on early discovery, early diagnosis and early quarantine for the prevention and control of the viral pneumonia of unknown cause.
Jan. 3
— Starting Jan. 3, China has been regularly informing the WHO, relevant countries and regions and China’s Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan about the pneumonia outbreak.
— China began to inform the United States of the pneumonia outbreak and response measures on a regular basis.
— The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission updated briefing on its website about the situation of viral pneumonia of unknown cause, reporting a total of 44 cases of viral pneumonia of unknown cause.
— The NHC organized the China CDC and three other institutions to carry out parallel laboratory testing of the samples for pathogen identification.
— The NHC and the Health Commission of Hubei Province jointly worked out nine documents on the outbreak, including a trial version of guidelines on the diagnosis and treatment of viral pneumonia of unknown cause.
https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/
January 5, 2020
Pneumonia of unknown cause – China
Disease outbreak news
On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. As of 3 January 2020, a total of 44 patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology have been reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. Of the 44 cases reported, 11 are severely ill, while the remaining 33 patients are in stable condition.
ltr incoherently writes “On 31 December 2019 . . . ”
Please just stop. You have completely misread the ABC report. December 31 is not relevant to this discussion except to note that DJT had by then all the information he needed to know that he needed to act decisively, and fast, and institute testing and tracking at scale to get containment. He had all that information because the Gov’t had just finished analyzing what would happen if a novel deadly coronavirus were to arise.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951662.htm
Jan. 7
— Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, made instructions on epidemic response when presiding over a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
— The China CDC succeeded in isolating the first novel coronavirus strain.
Jan. 8
— An expert evaluation team from the NHC initially identified a new coronavirus as the cause of the epidemic.
— Heads of China and U.S. CDCs talked over phone to discuss technological exchanges and cooperation.
Jan. 9
— An expert team from the NHC made public of the pathogen, saying a new type of coronavirus was initially identified as the cause of the viral pneumonia in Wuhan.
— China informed the WHO about the epidemic, sharing with the WHO the initial progress in determining the cause of the viral pneumonia in Wuhan.
— The WHO released on its website a statement regarding a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, saying that preliminary identification of a novel coronavirus in a short period of time is a notable achievement.
Jan. 10
— Research institutions including the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) developed testing kits. Wuhan City organized tests of all relevant cases admitted at hospitals in the city.
— Head of the NHC Ma Xiaowei talked over phone with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus about the epidemic response.
— Head of China CDC exchanged information over phone with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
— The China CDC shared with the WHO the specific primers and probes for detecting the novel coronavirus.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pneumonia/chinese-officials-investigate-cause-of-pneumonia-outbreak-in-wuhan-idUSKBN1YZ0GP
December 31, 2019
Chinese officials investigate cause of pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan
By Reuters
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/testing-coronavirus-pandemic.html
March 28, 2020
The Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19
Aggressive screening might have helped contain the coronavirus in the United States. But technical flaws, regulatory hurdles and lapses in leadership let it spread undetected for weeks.
By Michael D. Shear, Abby Goodnough, Sheila Kaplan, Sheri Fink, Katie Thomas and Noah Weiland
WASHINGTON —
The first time Dr. Robert Redfield heard about the severity of the virus from his Chinese counterparts was around New Year’s Day, when he was on vacation with his family. He spent so much time on the phone that they barely saw him. And what he heard rattled him; in one grim conversation about the virus days later, George F. Gao, the director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, burst into tears.
This is a critically important timeline:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951662.htm
April 6, 2020
China publishes timeline on COVID-19 information sharing, int’l cooperation
FYI: Pentagon issues rare public rebuke against ABC for claim White House was warned of pandemic in November
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/04/09/pentagon-issues-rare-public-rebuke-against-abc-for-claim-white-house-was-warned-of-pandemic-in-november-906664
This little denial was certainly reported over at the National Review which of course is a rag publication run by Trump sycophants. Of course someone in the White House put the squeeze on to deny, deny, deny. This what mob boss liars do all the time. And of course Trump sycophants wants us to believe these pathetic denials. Of course the January 3 PDB would be informative. Which is exactly why Trump will go to all ends never to let it see the light of day.
But nice try Sammy!
I have this mental picture of Sammy, fist raised leaping to his feet, as he hears Press Secretary-to-be Kayleigh McEnany assure loyal Fox viewers (2/25) that “…We will not see diseases like coronavirus come here. We will not see terrorism come here. And isn’t that refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama?”
No wailing and gnashing of teeth necessary. Not to worry. We’re saved.
@ noneconomist Pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XadNMpvhkzA
More proof that Bruce Hall is even dumber than Trump. Bruce told us that Trump shut down travel with China but here is Kevin Drum:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/airlines-suspended-china-flights-before-trump-did/
Airlines Suspended China Flights Before Trump Did
And this from the NYTimes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show
Travelers seeded multiple cases starting as early as mid-February, genomes show.
Trump wait until March 11 to restrict travel from Europe.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273
April 8, 2020
Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources
— This ABC report is false.
Dr. Zhang Jixian on December 26, 2019 first observed and subsequently reported an unusual pneumonia in a couple. Dr. Zhang then examined the couple’s son, who showed the same infection, and from there the reports followed:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178756.shtml
February 6, 2020
Ringing the alarm
By Fan Wei, Yang Cheng and Cui Meng – Wuhan
________________________________
Wuhan doctor awarded for making first warning of novel disease before outbreak
— The WHO in China was alerted on December 31, 2019, the pneumonia cluster was discussed in the international press on December 31 and the US CDC was expressly alerted on January 3, 2020.
Please read the detailed Chinese timeline that extends from late December 2019 to March 31, 2020:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/06/c_138951662.htm
April 6, 2020
China publishes timeline on COVID-19 information sharing, int’l cooperation
I just happened to notice this blog post, quite by accident, and thought I should respond since I immediately knew the ABC article in question was wrong. I only wished to make the correction, since the matter is important.
I have heard this is an excellent blog, but only noticed this post by chance.
ltr
“I have heard this is an excellent blog…”
ltr, it used to be a good blog. Until a few years ago, when the co-owner in the Midwest allowed it to become a shouting match, with the co-owner becoming a hack for the D party, instead of an unbiased econ prof.
However, when the other co-owner in the West publishes something it is usually very good and informative. But, that co-owner does not publish any more with frequency; only sporadically.
The ABC report turned out to be completely false. But don’t expect the co-owner of this blog, taxpayer funded prof in the Midwest, to publish a blog piece with a correction. Not his style, his TDS just overrides everything.
Manfred: Since you know there is *no* PDB in early January warning of a coronavirus threat, would you like to lay money on whether we’ll see (a possibly declassified) version within the next ten years? I can post your name/information on Econbrowser as a form of contract. Say $100? (I should’ve taken the bet on there being a “Bin Laden determined to strike in US” PDB!)
Manfred, is this reporter at FOX News objective?? I’m asking earnestly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGflPj9J9q8
Manfred, what do you think about trump’s REAL death panel, where he tells state governors and patients near death they don’t get ventilators unless he gets false praise?? People DYING so the orange creature donald trump can get false praise?? Is this how SICK you Republicans have come??
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a31955549/trump-coronavirus-aid-states-shakedown/
May I add, if Professor Hamilton voted for donald trump (I doubt he did) I can understand why he wouldn’t want to post regular anymore. If he did vote for donald trump (again, I doubt it) he would be busy giving himself palliative care for his deep sense of inner shame.
… and you trust Chinese quasi-propaganda outlets absolutely, why?
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/katie-porter-trade-data-medical-supplies-covid-19
Maybe China’s recovery from this COVID-19 was more successful than ours was due to all those U.S. exports of ventilators and protective masks to the Chinese.
“In February 2020, the value of U.S. mask exports to China was 1094.0% higher than the 2019 monthly average,” Porter’s report said. “In February 2020, the value of U.S ventilator exports to China was 292.2% higher than the 2019 monthly average.” The report, which was released Monday, pointed to specific Trump administration policies — rather than just a general increase in foreign demand due to the spread of COVID-19 abroad — as being a potential reason for the spike in export value.
ABC
“From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis…”
Menzie Chinn
“We need the PDB declassified and released…”
Since the ABC report is obviously false, if weeks of vetting and analysis is needed before a matter to appear in the PDB the matter could not have appeared in “early January”.
ltr: I think that it means *usually* weeks of vetting occur. If you had ever engaged in inter-agency review of memos, you might comprehend. Are you asserting that the PDB doesn’t exist?
The ABC report is not obviously false to me; why do you have such absolute faith in reports from Chinese quasi-propaganda outlets? China has every reason to make the onset of Covid-19 appear to be as late as possible, as the earlier it occurred, the longer China went without informing the rest of the world about the outbreak of a potential pandemic, which makes them look very, very bad on the world stage; blaming them for hundreds of thousands of deaths that could have been prevented with an extra four or more weeks of advance warning is a huge reputational hit. ABC, on the other hand, has plenty of news to report, and there’s no particular reason why they wouldn’t vet this one before publishing it.
I agree with Ithaqua and Menzie that ltr, whom we have not seen here before but who asserts various things that cannot be known yet unless he is himself high up in US intel. Published reports claim that the first case was identified on Nov. 17 in Wuhan, and now we think there were 266 by the end of the year, although most of those were only identified later. However, those reports have it that Chines doctors did not realize they were dealing with something unusual until sometime in December, whic his probably the strongest reason to believe that the ABC report is wrong, although this pubic information on who knew what when in China may be wrong, so the ABC report is not definitely wrong.
However, Menzie is certainly right that once something serious is discovered it does not take weeks of vetting for it to make it to the PDB, his claim to this effect the main evidence that he is not a high level intel person. Certainly no later than Jan. 3 botrh CDC and US intel knew there was a serious problem in China with covid-19, and US intel probably in December not much after whenever it was that Chinese physicians figured it out, whenever that really was. As it is, there probably were some delays on getting this stuff into the PDB, but as of now we have no way of knowing when it finally got there.
What wwe do know is that Trump mostly resisted the information when it began arriving, aside from his end-of-January order on travel from China, very late in the game for sure based on what he certainly should have known by then (we have read lots of reports of him simply paying no attention to those boring PDBs that do not always say things he likes). And aftet that one act he reverted to denying anything was going on serious until Friday the Thirteenth of March.
“Menzie is certainly right that once something serious is discovered it does not take weeks of vetting for it to make it to the PDB”
Fair point but I’ve put up a few discussions on how the Trump White House shut down the “PREDICT” program:
http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-was-predict-program-suspended-last.html
Why they would suspend such a vital program is beyond me.
Just sharing, as I thought the visually presented data was interesting. I don’t like the “blame it on foreigners” narrative, which, similar to Wuhan’s and China’s COVID resurgence the NYT staff seem very happy to run with:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/09/world/asia/coronavirus-hong-kong-singapore-taiwan.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
One wonders if these people posing as journalists can do anything but quote government officials. I suppose Taiwan could make a pretty strong argument Britain’s management of COVID-19 has been a clusterF—. But outside of that, I don’t see how this narrative does much positive. Here is a blog post which details some of the large missteps by Britain:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/the-misguided-discussion-of-herd-immunity.html
Menzie Chinn:
“Are you asserting that the PDB doesn’t exist?”
The ABC report was false.
There can be no such “early January” PDB about an unusual pneumonia outbreak in China in November 2019 since there was no knowledge of an unusual pneumonia outbreak in China in November 2019. There was no knowledge of an unusual pneumonia in China before the end of December and the WHO and international press were very quickly made aware of the occurrence on December 31, 2019. The US CDC was expressly made aware of the occurrence on January 3, 2020.
The report by ABC was false.
ABC
“From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House.”
This ABC assertion was false.
Menzie Chinn
“Are you asserting that the PDB doesn’t exist?”
ABC
“From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House.”
I am only asserting that this ABC report has to be false. A correct timeline in this matter is critically important, but this timeline simply has to be wrong.
ltr: I have no inside knowledge on this specific episode, but the fact that accounts tag a report in “early January” seems so specific that we can be confident that someday, the actual PDB will see the light of day.
ltr,
We have not seen you before, but you have completely shredded your credibility with some of us who have been around here for awhile and who also have had some experience with some of these things. You keep saying that the ABC report is false, but reporting something that cannot just makes you look like a fool, sorry. Probably it is false, but this is not definite. The first case was reported no later than Nov. 17. How do you know the ABC report is false. Do you hold a high position within the US intel establishment? Even if you do, you may not know the answer.
Really.
meant to say “repeating something like that” We have a number of people around here do this on a rgeular basis, repeat over and over something that has been shown either to be clearly false or not cleatrly true. Yes, this is what Sean Hannity does all the time. I mean, how many times has he told listeners that Shokin was removed at his request because Shokin was investrigating Burisma and Hunter Biden, something completely false?
Do you want to look like Sean Hannity, not to mention several characters around here? You want to be in the camp of those not to believe because they repeat things they cannot know to be true for sure?
Menzie Chinn
“I have no inside knowledge on this specific episode, but the fact that accounts tag a report in “early January” seems so specific that we can be confident that someday, the actual PDB will see the light of day.”
I am glad I chose to argue, since I appear to have been wrong. American intelligence, you have convinced me, tracked the beginning of an epidemic in China from November on and alerted administration officials including members of the NSC which in turn must have alerted the president early on. This is an impressive intelligence feat and makes for an important healthcare tracking system. As for the president having known early on or responsible for knowing early on, this is critically important and tragic.
I was apparently wrong, and needed to be corrected.
ltr: Don’t know about the rest of the timing, but I’ll say the PDB doesn’t necessarily come through the NSC – as I understand it, it comes through DNI (used to be through CIA). I think you dismissed the entire account, but all I am centering in on is that there *is* likely a PDB in early January on the threat of a pandemic.
“SCMP” at one point was a very good quality newspaper. Very easily the best in Southeast Asia. Some of that has been called into doubt because of firings and death threats. This isn’t a horrible rundown though:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back
No one will believe this, but BEFORE the news on coronavirus first broke, I had been reading about rumors of a new strain of flu floating around Shanghai (Yes, I typed Shanghai, not Wuhan). I remember thinking at the time it was probably BS, or even if legit, a tad on the melodramatic side. However after COVID-19 was starting to look more serious, I started to think back on that. I wish for the life of me I could find those links of what I had read about it–the thing to me was OVERLY coincidental—that is to say I feel there must be a connection between the two events. I will take time every day for the next 2 weeks to find those links I read, but I have this dreadful feeling I won’t be able to find it.
Even you admit that people knew about this disease by mid December 2019. Now if you think that our intelligence could not possibly have written this PDB within two weeks – then you are saying they are dumber than even Donald Trump.
Menzie Chinn,
Barkley Rosser,
I did not understand and was apparently or obviously mistaken, but I really sought to present a proper argument and not to be in any way offensive. The responses were welcome in correcting me, but I should not have intruded.
Menzie Chinn:
“Don’t know about the rest of the timing…”
ABC
“From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. ”
Please do forgive me, but this assertion by ABC still makes no sense to me, has not been independently corroborated by any other news agency and has been publicly denied by a military intelligence executive. I do assume my understanding is wrong however, and President Trump could well have been briefed in early January about the findings of Chinese health authorities that were sent to the WHO, made public and reported in the international press and directly communicated to the US CDC.
ABC
“From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. ”
I know I must be wrong in my questioning, but this ABC passage continues to be troubling to me.
You know – if this report changed the date from November to December, it might be entirely accurate. And if our intel knew in December and not November it does not change a thing about how Trump has been beyond incompetent. You have beaten this drum to death and even if you had a small little point – it is indeed very small and quite little. Try moving on.