Wisconsin Employment in June…and the Course of Covid-19

Nonfarm payroll employment slightly exceed June 22 Economic Outlook forecast.

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), and forecast from Wisconsin Economic Outlook (red). Source: BLS, DWD, WI DoR (June 22, 2020).

The average over Q2 was 2600.6 thousands, slightly exceeding the forecast of 2586 thousands. The Q2 forecast is for continued expansion; however, this depends on the evolution of the pandemic in the state.

While new cases have surged, hospitalizations and deaths have thus far remained stable (fatalities, not graphed, have been declining since end-May).

Figure 2: Change in positive test results (blue, left scale), and change in hospitalizations (brown, right scale). Source: Wisconsin DHS, accessed 7/16/2020.

It is an interesting questions of how long new cases can rise without hospitalizations and fatalities rising. At the national level, cases reached a local minimum around June 9th, while fatalities reached a minimum at July 5th (I use FT coronavirus tracker reporting 7 day moving averages to eyeball these dates.)

Goldman Sachs tabulates the states conditions by CDC gating requirements. Wisconsin is fairly far down, for now.

Source: Taylor, “State-Level Coronavirus Tracker: July 16,” Goldman Sachs. 

Wisconsin’s situation contrasts strongly with sunbelt states Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and Nevada. However, most models tracked by Fivethirtyeight indicate an acceleration in fatalities, so I expect some policy retrenchment in the future (if Texas can impose mask requirements and distancing, so too can WI GOP — it’s just a question of how many deaths will trigger that outcome.)

11 thoughts on “Wisconsin Employment in June…and the Course of Covid-19

  1. 2slugbaits

    The “R” package “covid19us” accesses data from https://covidtracking.com/data/api at the US and state level. Using a 7 day moving average from 1 April thru 16 July for Wisconsin, the hospitalization rate is on the rise. Wisconsin has seen a double-dip, with the low point in the first moving average dip occurring on 29 April and then a second bottoming out on 25 June. Since 25 June the 7 day moving average of hospitalizations has increased by 37.7% (in logs). The good news is that deaths aren’t rising. The bad news is that hospitalizations tend to be painful and expensive, oftentimes leaving survivors at least temporarily disabled.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ 2slugbaits Thanks for “R” package stuff. Haven’t played with it in awhile will see what I can make out of that.

      Am I to take by Menzie’s post that Mr. Evers is a little more forthcoming on making economic data publicly available or were these data sets still available under Walker??

      I thought this was a pretty good line, by one of our more humorous and cerebral journalists, relating to donald trump, and “land mines”

      Was just out to a place that amounts to Oklahoma’s local version of Dairy Queen. Roughly half of customers not wearing masks. Honest to God I wish I could give them all a severe version of the flu. Say what you want about me, if I could do it by occult magic I would give everyone of those SOBs not wearing a mask a flu that would have them thinking they are on their death bed for the next 2 weeks.

    2. Moses Herzog

      I’ve read about long-term organ damage on some of these cases. Now, what percentage of cases that is, I don’t know, but people really aren’t “getting” this if they think it’s only about deaths. It’s F-ing some people up longterm.

      The night mid-February a had a flu which I think may have been Covid, my brain felt like it had turned into hot liquid. It was a weird sensation. Maybe it wasn’t Covid, I’m not testing and then have some nurse infect me because she only washes her hands twice in a 24 hour period. It’s affecting people different because everyone’s immune system reacts different to it.

    3. Ulenspiegel

      “Since 25 June the 7 day moving average of hospitalizations has increased by 37.7% (in logs). The good news is that deaths aren’t rising.”

      The deaths are delayed by around four weeks.

      If you check data for the USA, you have had more cases since 15th of June, the number of deaths have increased since last week.

  2. Moses Herzog

    @ 2slugbaits

    It’s been weeks since I used “R” I got offtrack on my studies because I got a new comp and also just my usual mode of laziness. After installing the package I typed in a individual state, and I know that some of the data that pops up is correct, (for example the case numbers are right, and I can get a correct hospitalizations number) but I keep getting this in red letters after the data kicks out:
    “Warning message:
    All formats failed to parse. No formats found. ”

    Without the quotations. Do you have any idea what could be the issue??

    1. 2slugbaits

      Yes, that comes up. There’s no problem. I suspect the message is due to “R” manipulating the data between “wide” and “long” formats. There’s another “R” program called “covid19.analytics” that’s kind of cool, but it doesn’t have state level data. For example, there’s a “live” 3-D globe that you can rotate and click on any country and it will show the most recent COVID-19 data. It will also estimate each country’s “beta” and “nu” parameters in a SIR model, estimate growth rates, calculate regression statistics, etc.

      1. Moses Herzog

        That makes me feel a lot better. Thanks for the reply. I still haven’t gotten the data to go in “long form” yet (it truncates after about 8-10 lines of data), or tried to graph it, I saw some of their commands on Github. I thought their “readme” file was a little lacking, but probably they are expecting people like me to have a better knowledge base and not be held by the hand on every program. Hopefully I can kind of walk my way A**-backwards and figure it out, it would be so cool to see those graphs pop up in my Rstuido, I think maybe I have only done that one time before with some text example or something.

        I’m glad you shared this though. Even though the data input tends to lag a few hours from when the journalists here post it. it would be nice to have one more source. Of course there’s the state health website and things like Hopkins and The Atlantic website this thing uses. But again I would get quite the charge out of getting these to pop up in Rstudio and just have one more source—plus the fact you can crucnh number once you can get the data to transfer—bot that my skills have reached there yet, But I DO have ggplot 2 installed and the dbldeebobnldeegoog, whatever that other one is, I bet you know what I’m talking about, the other data visualizer thing-ie.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I was gonna add, Thanks for the reply slugbaits, but it weirdly seemed to refresh and upload the comment. Don’t remember that happening before, quite weird. Why do the weirder things always happen when I’m sober?? It’s like the comment got sucked up or something. Like Spock got “beamed up” before he requested.

      2. Moses Herzog

        One more thing….. I suspect that “tidyverse” stuff might fix those type error messages, but I am not on the level yet where I know how to use the tidyverse and when and where it’s applicable. If the truth be told I’m barely at the level I can install packages and put them in the damned “library”,

  3. Moses Herzog

    I wonder just how F-ed up in the head a person has to be, to call this “fake news” or a “liberal agenda”??

    What would poetic justice be, for someone who walks around with no mask chuckling and smiling and then infecting others?? What would “poetic justice” or “karma” look like?? It’s an open question I’m happy to hear anyone’s thoughts on what that looks like?? What happens in world where karma comes back on a Tucker Carlson who calls someone who lost their legs after a grenade took her chopper down “a coward”?? What happens to that nation?? I’ll tell you this much, these people would not want to exist in the hypothetical/imaginary world where I have omnipotent power. They would not want to see it, I promise you.

    1. Willie

      For needy attention hogs like Carlson, complete obscurity would be plenty of Karma. Make Idiots Irrelevant Again.

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