If you look at the CDC statistics without looking at the footnotes, you could be forgiven for mistakenly concluding the US was nearing zero Covid-19 fatalities.
Covid-19 fatalities could be counted by referring to death certificates labeling cause as such. However, this method is subject to error due to misreporting. An alternative approach is to calculate excess fatalities — the actual count minus “expected” (CDC sets negative excess deaths to zero, see technical notes to the data. This approach is particularly useful when administrative data are sketchy, e.g., Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria. The catch is estimating the expected number of deaths for usual times.
Compounding this problem of inference are long data submission to the CDC. Particularly recent figures are likely to be very undercounted. This suggests looking at alternative sources for insight into trends.
In Figure 1, I show CDC data on Covid-19 fatalities, excess fatalities (all causes), and Covid-19 fatalities as tabulated by the Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic.
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), and fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (red). Source: CDC, Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic accessed 7/16/2020, author’s calculations. [Updated using 7/18 data]
The CDC Covid-19 fatalities series is trending toward zero, but this could be partly due to lagging reporting. The excess fatalities series could also be distorted by lagging reporting. The fact that estimated excess deaths have gone far into negative territory suggests that there have been offsetting negative (on fatalities) forces — perhaps decrease in traffic and other accidents due to lockdowns.
The alternative unofficial data indicates that Covid-19 fatalities are turning upward as of the week ending 7/11, contradicting both the official tally and excess fatalities calculations.
Given the White House has transferred Covid-19 related hospital data collection to HHS — and away from CDC — we might have to rely more and more on unofficial data, and less and less on the Ministry of Truth.
Ever hear the phrase “You can’t make this up folks” ?? Where would this fit into that phrase you think??
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/507663-chuck-woolery-deletes-twitter-account-after-announcing-his-son-has-coronavirus.
https://giphy.com/gifs/3o6Zt44rlujPePNVVC/html5
““To further clarify and add perspective, Covid-19 is real and it is here. My son tested positive for the virus, and I feel for of those suffering and especially for those who have lost loved ones”.
Never liked the Chuckster but let’s hope his son gets past this. In the meantime, Team Trump will probably start to smear the Chuckster and his family.
chuck is another of the fools that i say must simply pee on the electric fence for themselves.
I even half-suspect he already knew and was pulling a publicity stunt. But how could he have “known” trump would re-tweet it?? That part is the confusing one—so I tend to lean to the contention he did actually make an absolute jack *ss of himself.
I keep wondering how these people think contradicting scientists is getting them somewhere?? Do they think inventions like penicillin and the cure for polio are invented by people attending creative writing classes??
IIRC (and I was never a game show watcher, excepting Jeopardy), Chuck Woolery in his heyday was regarded as exceptionally stupid, even by Hollywood standards. People can certainly cure their ignorance but stupid is eternal. Woolery is now 30-40 years or more past his heyday, too, i.e., old.
I have to make a shameful confession, I did find Chucky half-way likable when he hosted “Scrabble”. I wanna say this was very late ’80s or VERY early ’90s but I’d have to cheat and google it to know for sure. Don’t tell anyone ok Dysmalist?? It’s our secret to my death.
(Here comes one of my glutinous Cliff Clavin screeds, are you ready??)
The more interesting thing I think many forget, he used to host “Wheel of Fortune” before Pat Sajak took over. Now, if one looks at Pat’s yearly salary (and that show I would guess is also past its heyday) that would appear to have been a blunder for Chucky to exit “Wheel”. Let’s be real here, Sajak is a cool, likable fellow, and perfect for the job, but he is also “no Johnny Carson”. It’s hard to believe if Chucky could keep a positive attitude while taping (i.e the monotony of hosting the game didn’t drive him insane) that he wouldn’t be commanding the same salary Sajak does now. It’s basically a car salesman/real estate agent kind of job. You’re trying to pick people’s moods up.
“If you look at the CDC statistics without looking at the footnotes, you could be forgiven for mistakenly concluding the US was nearing zero Covid-19 fatalities.
One would think no one would make that mistake. Then again Bruce Hall routinely reads a headline and draw an inference without even reading the first paragraph.
Menzie, I agree with your points and the estimates of deaths may be useful if the relationship between cases and deaths follows the April-May period; however, there are indications that may not be the case due to more identified infections involving asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people, which is a point I raised previously. Also, as reported in Florida, more cases involve younger people who are less likely to die than the population segment over 65 which constituted the bulk of the April-May period deaths.
The nature of the death counts is lagging because of the need to process death certificates and, that too, I’ve pointed out. It shows up on the summary graphic I prepared of the weekly CDC reports where adjustments to each week’s tally have been made going back 17 weeks so that the period prior to 6/7 accounted for 52% of the “new” deaths when comparing the report published on 6/30 to the one on 7/14.
As to the shifting of where the data will be gathered and analyzed, I agree with you completely that this is likely to cause confusion and disruption to the tracking process. I was stunned when I read that yesterday. Hopefully, the data will be presented in a manner consistent with what the CDC has been presenting up until now.
This is from the idiot who told us we would have no more deaths. As usual, the evidence contradicts the marching orders you were given by Kelly Anne Conway.
pgl, do you work for “The Onion” making up crap as you go along?
actually I do not work for the Onion but most of their comedic material is brilliant take downs of right wing stupidity like the crap you write. So I should work for them.
“Hopefully, the data will be presented in a manner consistent with what the CDC has been presenting up until now.”
Hopefully yes but anyone who gets this White House knows the HHS will be ordered to misrepresent the data. Hey – I have an idea. They should hire you to present the data – which guarantees deaths will be underreported.
Republican governor interfered with texas medical center reporting of hospital bed and icu reportage. They have decided to control the data in order to control the narrative.
The opening of the CNBC sounds awful:
“Previously public data has already disappeared from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website after the Trump administration quietly shifted control of the information to the Department of Health and Human Services.Since the pandemic began, the CDC regularly published data on availability of hospital beds and intensive care units across the country. But Ryan Panchadsaram, who helps run a data-tracking site called Covid Exit Strategy, said that when he tried to collect the data from the CDC on Tuesday, it had disappeared. “We were surprised because the modules that we normally go to were empty. The data wasn’t available and not there,” he said. “There was no warning.”
The rest of the story adds context which makes this sound even worse. You know HHS could report the data and let CDC also continue its own reporting if the Trump White House wanted more accurate and timely information. But it is clear that this White House wants just the opposite.
Yet another study on whether hydroxychloroquine does anything for those with COVID-19:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/new-covid-19-study-despite-flaws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/
Hydroxychloroquine did not lead to faster symptom improvement among patients who had Covid-19 symptoms and were not hospitalized, according to a new study published Thursday in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The study, a randomized controlled trial led by researchers at the University of Minnesota, adds to the evidence that the malaria drug, heralded as a treatment based on scant data early in the pandemic, has little utility in treating Covid-19.
Of course this is not going to stop Bruce Hall from his incessant campaign to tell us that it is the miracle cure. He like Trump and Navarro have been lying about this for months and will continue to lie to us.
Bruce Hall says a lot of incredibly stupid things with his latest utter stupidity is that getting COVID-19 matters only if it kills you. The evidence says otherwise in so many tragic ways including this:
https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-07-17/over-half-of-coronavirus-hospital-patients-in-spain-have-developed-neurological-problems-studies-show.html
Over half of coronavirus patients in Spain have developed neurological problems, studies show – New research indicates that Covid-19 is causing a wide range of disorders in the nervous system and may be directly attacking the brain – The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus attacks the respiratory system, but there is growing evidence that it also affects the nervous system. Several studies based on thousands of Spanish patients show that most of these individuals developed at least one neurological problem. This manifested itself in a wide range of symptoms, ranging from headaches to comatose states. In a percentage of cases, neurological conditions were even the principal cause of death. Although these symptoms have been attributed to the body’s excessive immune response to Covid-19, some research indicates that the virus is directly attacking the brain.
Of course this should no concern to most MAGA hat wearers as their brains are generally worthless in the first place.
the virus has been shown to negatively impact blood clotting, across many organs. this is the “hidden”, long term issue many who have “recovered” from the virus will need to contend with for the rest of their lives. since this does not show up in death counts today, nor in medical bills today, it has been ignored by those pushing for a fast reopening and “herd” immunity as a soluion. the herd immunity approach appears to only develop long term medical problems for a population, not long term protection from the virus.
People like Trump and his minions including Bruce Hall are incapable of thinking about long term consequences. All that matters is what Trump looks like on today’s evening Faux News broadcasts or early the next morning on Fox and Friends.
He will look orange and incompetent no matter what.
Keep in mind, this was put up by one of the better TV journalists locally, and as of this moment right now, there is still no state level requirement for face masks, and when I went to the local version of Dairy Queen yesterday evening (Thursday) at about 8:00pm, only half the people there had masks on. The ones not wearing a mask taking no thought about social spacing at all, seemingly working at proving they were part of the “MAGA” illiterates club.
https://twitter.com/KOCODillon/status/1284203408745013248
It’s not just a drastic increase in ICU beds being used in the last two weeks, but also hospital staff is going to get infected, and going to start working over hours where they become physically and emotionally taxed. When nurses get tired that’s when mistakes in both patient care, and nurses assuring their own safety (washing hands, gloves, de-robing infected clothes). These things take an alert and aware mind, and intense 12+hour shifts day-after-day-after-day-after-day dont help in that department,
Hmmmm, I wonder why the Oklahoma area on the map is so pale??
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The CDC on July 14th noted 12 states were in their Red Zone and needed to scale back reopening. Of course the White House has hired Bruce Hall to suppress this real world data inserting their own intellectual crap so as to make sure more people in these states die from COVID19. After all – most of them planned to vote for Biden. MAGA!
pgl apparently has some personal problems and I wish him well.
Obviously, there are many dimensions to the C-19 epidemic. Deaths certainly are the most serious, but some people do have issues beyond the apparent recovery. As and anecdote with a slightly different outcome than pgl offered, my 69-year old brother-in-law in Florida recently tested positive after feeling shortness of breath and feeling like “an elephant was on my chest”. He went to the local hospital where he was given dexamethasone and some antibiotics and sent home. After a week of gradually getting better, he said felt perfectly fine and resume his normal routine which was work (with precautions to protect others) and taking care of his 98-year old mother (who somehow did not get infected). C-19 is like many other diseases that can have a profound or minimal effect on people.
His objection to the graphic that I prepare is exactly why I prepare it: to show that over time, the weekly totals are adjusted for new death certificates. But apparently he doesn’t actually look at data or graphics to understand what is being presented, but simply goes off half-cocked with thoughts such as “This is from the idiot who told us we would have no more deaths.” What I did say was that we’ve had a declining trend of deaths since mid-April and we’d have to wait to see if the trend reverses as a result of the states opening back up and the BLM protests around the country.
One of the more likely developments is that we probably won’t see as many deaths in nursing homes because the states that were forcing nursing homes to accept infected people back have reversed their misguided policies. We’ve also had significantly more testing (which pgl apparently doesn’t see as a significant factor in identifying more cases) that have identified infected people who are asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms that were not being identified in April and May, thus increasing the case counts relative to the April-May period. These are “cases”, but not in the same sense as those related to high death counts in April and May.
So, I’m sorry if pgl feels mislead by a summation of CDC data, but I sort of feel like that’s his problem.
BTW, the NHS had a banner at the top of their website directing people back to the CDC for Covid-19 updates. Apparently the data wasn’t simply shut off as there were updates through today (July 17). I pulled down today’s update just to see how much change there was to the trendlines and, as expected, the most recent weeks are beginning to have increased death counts as death certificates are being processed. I’ll provide an update next week which I know pgl is anxiously waiting for.
The “new-covid-19-study-despite-flaws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/” does have its flaws and would be source of ridicule from pgl if it had a different conclusion:
To conduct these studies, the researchers made significant compromises. They could not obtain diagnostic testing for all patients, so included people who had symptoms but couldn’t get a test result. In the end, only 58% of the people in this study had diagnostic test results. The researchers mailed study drug or placebo to patients without examining them after they enrolled over the internet, meaning they used data patients self-reported. In the end, the study randomized 491 patients, 432 of whom contributed data to the final analysis.
The patients on hydroxychloroquine recovered 12% faster, or 0.27 points on a 10-point scale, but this difference was far from statistically significant. Patients on hydroxychloroquine also had side effects: 31% had upset stomachs and 21% diarrhea, both about double the rates in the placebo group, though no patients reported cardiac arrhythmias. Overall, adverse effects were reported by 43% of hydroxychloroquine patients and 22% of placebo patients.
So, a flawed study show slightly better results with patients who received HCQ, but pgl says“Hydroxychloroquine did not lead to faster symptom improvement among patients who had Covid-19 symptoms and were not hospitalized, according to a new study published Thursday in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The study, a randomized controlled trial led by researchers at the University of Minnesota, adds to the evidence that the malaria drug, heralded as a treatment based on scant data early in the pandemic, has little utility in treating Covid-19.”
A Henry Ford Health System (highlighted for pgl) study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday.
Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug “significantly” decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.
The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found (only) 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/
Yes, the doctors said more study was needed, but that is their standard protocol now. Other hospitals stopped using HCQ because of the very flawed Lancet article which was later retracted.
Hope you feel better, pgl. But please read beyond the headlines.
Bruce Hall: CDC fatalities data are still online. Hospitalization data formerly at the CDC site has been suppressed.
Bruce Hall So, a flawed study show slightly better results with patients who received HCQ,
No, that’s not what the study showed. It showed that there was no statistically significant difference in outcomes. That means the 0.27 point difference could just as easily be attributed to random chance. Do you know what statistical significance means? In this case it means 0.27 points is indistinguishable from 0.00.
The Henry Ford hospital results were deeply flawed because the treatment and non-treatment groups received very different care above and beyond being administered hydroxychloroquine. That’s just bad study design, which is why other research hospitals in the Detroit/Ann Arbor area dismissed the Henry Ford findings.
Good to see that you agree that deaths are not the only bad outcome. If only people could be convinced to wear masks. No one likes wearing masks, but anyone who refuses to wear one is a social menace. The only good thing about wearing a mask is that it allows me to display my love of the Chicago Cubs.
Careful there lest Bruce Hall decides to do misleading personal attacks on you. He does seem to have personal problems with people who correct his serial dishonesty.
Says the person who specializes in personal attacks.
Calling you out for your incessant lies is a personal attack? Come on Brucie boy – you have the maturity of a 2 year old.
“Do you know what statistical significance means?”
The only thing Bruce Hall understands is what we pre-approved by Kelly Anne Conway. Now she is a pollster so I guess she knows what it means. But for her to be honest about anything? Seriously?
Yes, do you know what “flawed” means?
Flawed – anything the village idiot Bruce Hall writes.
The news this morning notes we had 75 thousand news cases of this virus on Friday and the official death count is about to pass 140 thousand. And Bruce Hall finally figured this is a real problem. Atta boy Brucie – now go fetch this bone.
Of course Bruce is showing more concern than President Trump who is spending no time at all on the COVID-19 issue except for his dishonest and juvenile personal attacks on Dr. Fauci. So I guess I should not be surprised that Brucie boy spent most of his latest comment with juvenile attacks on me. Need another bone Brucie?
It makes sense that if the majority of people getting tested are those who are already sick enough to have symptoms, the numbers of deaths relative to the confirmed cases would be much higher.
“In the very beginning, we were testing people who were really only in the hospital, which is unfortunate,” Khaldun said. “But that’s the number of tests we had. Now what we’re seeing is more and more tests.”
Now that Michigan is testing more than 21,000 people per day, the positive cases include more asymptomatic patients, and they’re much less likely to be killed by the virus.
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/07/15/3-reasons-michigan-covid-19-deaths-have-remained-low-despite-surge-in-daily-cases/
But I don’t expect pgl to understand the distinctions.
I bet you think if you include my name in your usual stupid rants I’ll go away. No Brucie – I call out liars regardless of how huffy and puffy they get. Grow up troll.
“Now that Michigan is testing more than 21,000 people per day, the positive cases include more asymptomatic patients, and they’re much less likely to be killed by the virus.”
Kevin Quinn undermined this canard of your quite ably over at Econospeak. I’ve asked you to read. My mistake is you are under strict orders not to follow anything that is honest.
In texas nursing homes account for over a third of all covid deaths. And infections are now rising in nursing homes.
One would think by now states would figure out to protect nursing homes in the same fashion the NBA is protecting its players. Now if the cheating Astros catch this virus because they will play their home baseball games in Texas I wonder how many will look back at their cheating and just shrug. I’d rather they get protected so we can boo at them for what is left of the season.
I am really wondering why the numbers reported daily in the Washington Post are so different from what Bruce claims CDC is reporting. As of this morning the 7 day daily average of deaths for the US on the front page is about 700. That measure bottomed out just below 500 at the end of June and has pretty much steadily risen since, although maybe flattening out in the last couple of days. But that is a pretty substantial increase.
WaPo does not say what their data source is, but this is seriously different from theses CDC numbers that basically have no increase, although the decline seems to be over for deaths.
I asked bruce if he would admit the 7 day moving average for deaths in usa was increasing. He refused to answer the question. Bruce has a problem with data that challenges his world view.
“As of this morning the 7 day daily average of deaths for the US on the front page is about 700. That measure bottomed out just below 500 at the end of June and has pretty much steadily risen since” – Barkley is right. But of course Bruce Hall – like his boss (Trump) – never admits to being wrong even though he is wrong so often.
A while back I asked Brucie to do this by state. After all, New York was rocked but we have really lowered our death count. So the rise is really pronounced in the states with MAGA governors. Did Bruce look into this and report not? Of course not as doing so would have undermined his dishonest claims.
baffling,
I didn’t refuse to answer; I simply asked for your link to the CDC data.
You of all people complaining about someone not linking to the CDC data? No wonder your dog laughs at you all day!
“I didn’t refuse to answer; I simply asked for your link to the CDC data.”
https://covidtracking.com/data/download
One has to wonder if Bruce Hall is this incredibly stupid or what. Our host provided this link in the post, which we have all noted the implications. Now caught in another flat out lie Bruce’s defense is show us a link to the data. What an utter moron.
baffling,
I requested the link to the CDC 7-day moving average of Covid-19 deaths; I did not refuse to answer.
Why don’t you simple check data for the same say of the week?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
You find that the number of deaths increased by ~40% from 3rd to 17th of July.
The number of cases started increasing around 15th of June. We observe as expected a three/four week delay between new cases and resulting deaths. The situation is quite obvious.
bruce, since you are the keeper of the data, i must assume you have it on hand. all of a sudden the data whisperer lost his data? i was simply asking if you understood what the data said. you refused to say. my providing a link to anything is really irrelevant. you either understand what the data says, or you do not understand what the data says. quit dancing around the issue.
“I am really wondering why the numbers reported daily in the Washington Post are so different from what Bruce claims CDC is reporting.”
This one is easy. Bruce Hall lies almost as much as Trump does. Why he lies this way – one can only wonder. I cannot imagine anyone paying him for his incessant stupidity. And we have not seen him on Fox and Friends either.
pgl,
another personal attack. How about a link to the CDC 7-day moving average of Covid-19 deaths?
My God – are you THIS stupid? Already noted that the link is in the body of Menzie’s post. Are you blind? Should we call you Mr. Magoo?
Trump has reasons to question the CDC. They are biased:
“Employees at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have made more than 8,000 contributions totaling over $285,000 to Democratic candidates and causes since 2015, according to a Daily Caller News Foundation analysis of political contributions.
Only five contributions were sent to a Republican PAC or candidate. Out of these five contributions, which totaled just over $1,000, three sent money to President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign efforts, Federal Election Commission (FEC) records indicate.
The contributions were made by more than 550 people who listed the CDC as their employer on FEC forms. The contributors serve at various levels of management, ranging from nurses and information technology personnel to epidemiologists, public health advisors and the chief financial officer.”
8,000 to 5? $285,000 to $1,000?
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/17/cdc-employee-political-contributions-democratic-pacs/
sammy: So if the US Army or…the police in your town…gave more money to Trump, then they are “biased” in their execution of invasion of Iraq?
Gee Sammy – the CDC generally hires smart people. And smart people know Trump and his minions are destroying our nation. But you clearly do not get this simple fact. Go figure!
I guess in Trump world freedom of expression only exists if one is wearing a MAGA hat.
Sammy goes dumpster diving by citing the Daily Caller, which is a rag created by Tucker Carlson. I particularly loved the fact that Sammy’s link featured Chuck Woolery’s tweets denying that this virus even existed. Oh wait – Chuck’s son now has this virus. WHOOPS!
We can always count on Sammy to promote the MAGA agenda no matter how absurd the claims are.
“Employees at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have made more than 8,000 contributions totaling over $285,000 to Democratic candidates and causes since 2015, according to a Daily Caller News Foundation analysis of political contributions.”
sammy, are you saying these private citizens are not entitled to their voice in a democracy? you want to stifle their voice? send in the unmarked cars with camouflaged and masked unidentified mercenaries to snatch folks off the street and illegally detain them without charges or access to a lawyer. is that your view of america sammy? very democratic approach you have sammy.
The pea brain was thinking that lock down effects could affect what would be called “normal deaths” by stopping elective procedures as well as reductions in flu deaths.
Ironic that trumps wants to force other peoples kids to school and become exposed to the virus. But baron trump will remain out of school because of possible virus exposure. Do as i say, not as i do. Trump campaign motto for 2020.
Sometimes I suspect Donald does not even know who Baron is. After all – the kid is Melania’s responsibility. And she strikes me as a lot more sensible than that fatso husband of hers.
Trump admin people , Fox hair-do’s and right wing shills should be forced to lick dying Covid victims’s nostrils. They have no credibility at all since they don’t believe in science or facts. The love statistics, though, since they can fiddle around with those numbers to produce anything they want…or just make up stats on the fly.
There is no amount of effort or words from the right which can undo their willful ignorance and cheerful participation in a genocide. Of course, whoever wins in november, the criminals will walk free…as always, when in fact we need a People’s Court to try them all. I hear waterboarding is very effective for getting people to admit to just about anything…and it’s not even torture! LOL
While the virus continues to target minority communities excessively, dont count on trump changing his approach to the virus.
For those defending the increase in testing as “winning”, it should be noted many places are reporting a nearly weeklong delay in test results. As francis collins noted, this makes that testing all but useless in controlling the virus. Now trump wants to cut back any further funding to control the virus. What a failure in leadership.