Stephen Moore: “Trump’s super recovery”

Title of an article a few days ago:

The problem is the economy isn’t crashing and burning — just the opposite. The pandemic lockdowns flattened the economy earlier this year, and there’s lots of heavy lifting to do to get all the jobs back. But they are coming back, and Trump will be bequeathing to Biden the swiftest recovery from a deep recession in modern history. The last quarter came in at a record 33 percent growth.

Two graphics.

Source: CNN via KVIA. Thousands of cars wait in line for food from a Dallas food bank.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 11/17 (light blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (11/2 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

 

Mr. Moore ends his article:

If you want to see an economy that is genuinely “slowing down,” wait until you see what the “liberals” do to it.

It is important to note that the deceleration in employment and industrial production has already occurred. Moreover, from The Hill:

The U.S. economy is set to shrink in the first quarter of 2021 as a result of the out-of-control spread of COVID-19, which is forcing state and local governments to reimpose restrictions, according to an analysis by JPMorgan.

“This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q, albeit at ‘only’ a 1.0% annualized rate,” the forecast headed by economist Michael Feroli found.

Goldman Sachs has assessed the likelihood of another near-term recovery package — as well as its size — as decreasing even further with the Senate’s recess.

So, while there is nothing factually wrong in Mr. Moore’s article, there are sufficient contextual errors (his record recounted here) to make this as mendacious an account as his previous ones.

134 thoughts on “Stephen Moore: “Trump’s super recovery”

  1. pgl

    “Let’s be honest: The Democrats and the media want the economy to crash before Joe Biden enters the White House in January. They have been rooting against the economy for four years now.”

    When Mr. Moore starts with let’s be honest, get ready for one lie after another. And Larry Bird? Like this clown even knows what a basketball is.

    Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        @ noneconomist
        Did you see the syndicated cartoon in the newspaper recently?? A bunch of men sitting in a county prison cell. Two white middle-aged guys sitting on a bench next to the wall. One guy says to the other “I’m here because I had too many guests at home”. The more chubby white guy replies “Who do you think you are, Gavin Newsom?”

        Reply
          1. Baffling

            I dont think you crucify the guy for making one mistake. Nobody is going to confuse his behavior with trumps behavior. Bernie sanders is not always well behaved either .

          2. noneconomist

            Far right dimwits here have been sponsoring “Recall Newsom” booths at super markets and other venues. They specialize in wheel spinning.
            Recalling Newsom is about as likely as me marrying Charlize Theron.
            BTW, I did not vote for Newsom in the 2018 primary.I thought John Chaing was a better choice. But I happily supported Newsom in the general, joining about 60% of Californians who did likewise.

          3. RG

            Oh, now we are back to judging Dems on values, behavior, gaffes and faux pas. Sure Moses, sure. Ain’t taking the bait. When a Dem brags about sexual assault and the party nominates him/her for the highest office in the lad, we can have a beer on me and you can call them a sack of whatever.

            Oh, let me add another one, Jan 20 2020 is when we start caring about the debts and deficits again. Never mind that the deficit rose from
            600 B to 1 T between 2016 and 2019, as the economic expansion continued and before the Covid “hoax”. I guess the deficit was going to magically disappear too…

  2. pgl

    “Democrats and the media know in their hearts Biden will perform much worse on the economy than Trump. ”

    Who else knows this? Mark Zandi and almost every credible economist who forecasts the economy. You said there were lies in this batshit insane oped – but I’d call that a lie.

    Reply
  3. pgl

    “If Larry Bird hits eight of 10 shots from the field in the first half and seven of 10 in the second half, it would be a little strange to say he cooled off.”

    OK Bird scored 30 points. Let’s say the rest of the Celtics managed to score only 30 more points while the Lakers put up 100 points. I’d call that a blow out for Show Time but I guess a moron like Moore would think the Celtics won.

    It’s a team game Stephen – which is why no one wants you on the court.

    Reply
  4. joseph

    Ha! Larry Bird. Moore had to reach back over 30 years to find a white guy whose face he would recognize for his tortured metaphor. I mean, really, that’s the first name that comes to mind? What audience is he writing for?

    Reply
    1. Baffling

      OLD WHITE MALES. I answer the question because some in this audience, like rick and corev, cannot answer the question correctly.

      Reply
    1. pgl

      He clobbered Hillary? Moore thinks it was a boxing match? I like the following from the story:

      ” Moore suggested Sunday that the U.S. doesn’t need a $2 trillion stimulus package to help the nation’s businesses and workers weather the pandemic.

      “The economy really is showing signs of picking up. I don’t care what the newspapers say,” he said on John Catsimatidis’ radio show on WABC 770.

      Moore was attacked last year, even by Republicans, after Trump nominated him to be a governor on the Federal Reserve Board.

      Critics condemned him as a partisan fiscal conservative with no real expertise or track record. Moore notoriously played a key role in the disastrous 2012 tax cut experiment in Kansas that led to state revenues almost instantly plunging $700 million.

      Moore eventually withdrew his name from consideration.”

      Stephen Moore – wrong on everything!

      Reply
  5. MarkS

    America continued its addiction to deficit spending under the Trump administration…More money for the Capitalists to hoover up, and more credit for the Hoi Polloi to hang themselves with.
    Trump’s petulance will likely result in no congressional action for pump priming prior to Biden’s inauguration. Senate control by Republicans will likely result in a highly attenuated response to deteriorating business conditions. Corporate bankruptcies are spiking, mortgages and leases are going unpaid, unemployment benefits are going unpaid.
    It will be a long and painful winter. Spring enhanced by a vaccine will still require a massive struggle for the majority of Americans to reestablish their businesses and dig themselves out of debt.

    Reply
    1. The Rage

      I don’t know. Mortgage originations surged during the crisis and CARES created 4 trillion in dollars that will swash around for years. By spring restrictions will be lifted nationally, surging services. Looks like the priming has already happened.

      Don’t get caught in the lags. Greenspan learned the hard way in the 2000’s

      Reply
      1. macroduck

        You don’t seem to have the capacity to learn from your mistakes. How many times have you claimed that CARES “created” money, only to be corrected by Menzie? Yet here you go again. Why keep making this erroneous claim?

        Reply
  6. ltr

    November 21, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 12,450,666)
    Deaths   ( 261,790)

    India

    Cases   ( 9,095,908)
    Deaths   ( 133,263)

    France

    Cases   ( 2,127,051)
    Deaths   ( 48,518)

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,493,383)
    Deaths   ( 54,626)

    Mexico

    Cases   ( 1,025,969)
    Deaths   ( 100,823)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 918,271)
    Deaths   ( 14,239)

    Canada

    Cases   ( 325,711)
    Deaths   ( 11,406)

    China

    Cases   ( 86,414)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

    Reply
  7. ltr

    November 21, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 803)
    US   ( 789)
    Mexico   ( 779)
    France   ( 743)

    Canada   ( 301)
    Germany   ( 170)
    India   ( 96)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.8%, 3.7% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. 

    Reply
  8. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-VCkdADheBG/index.html

    November 22, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland registered 17 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, of which 14 cases were from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Sunday.

    Three cases were domestically transmitted, with 2 reported in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and 1 in Shanghai, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.

    A total of 11 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 365 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Saturday, and 9 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    As of Saturday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,431, with 4,634 fatalities.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-VCkdADheBG/img/3955699d64a94f33ad925a319bea3248/3955699d64a94f33ad925a319bea3248.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-VCkdADheBG/img/e39afaadbc8b4b058b4c53a685504216/e39afaadbc8b4b058b4c53a685504216.jpeg

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending completely in a few weeks.

    Community cases have just been detected in 2 cities and are being followed with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine used to identify the origins as well as to contain the infections.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.  Cold-chain imported food products are all checked.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 316 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 5 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

    Reply
    1. Ivan

      Yes China has this completely under control in spite of how bad it is in the rest of the world. Amazing what competent leadership can do.

      Reply
  9. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 19 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.  Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries.  Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.

    November 21, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 789) *

    Brazil   ( 793)
    Argentina   ( 814)
    Colombia   ( 687)

    Mexico   ( 779)
    Peru   ( 1,072)
    Chile   ( 784)

    Ecuador   ( 740)
    Bolivia   ( 758)

    * Descending number of cases

    Reply
  10. oee

    Stephen Moore is a liar and anti-democrat. He claimed in an op-ed that TX & FLA performed better than NY & CA , which were not true. Also, the documentary , “Capitalism a Love Story,” He claimed he did not favor democracy. Also, he was part of a group that openly wanted to suppress the minority vote.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      “he was part of a group that openly wanted to suppress the minority vote.”

      I always thought Moore would fit in with the KKK.

      Reply
  11. ltr

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-exits-open-skies-treaty-moves-to-discard-observation-planes-11606055371

    November 22, 2020

    Trump Exits Open Skies Treaty, Moves to Discard Observation Planes
    Without specialized aircraft and equipment, Biden administration would have difficult time re-entering post-Cold War pact
    By Michael R. Gordon – Wall Street Journal

    The Trump administration formally shut the door on the Open Skies treaty Sunday, exiting the agreement while moving to get rid of the U.S. Air Force planes that have been used to carry out the nearly three-decade-old accord.

    President Trump had served notice in May that the U.S. would withdraw in six months from the accord, which was intended to reduce the risk of war by allowing Russia and the West to carry out unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories….

    [ Saddening. Notice then the way in which the Trump administration is moving to make a profound policy change last. ]

    Reply
    1. pgl

      “President Trump had served notice in May that the U.S. would withdraw in six months from the accord”

      In less than 2 months the Secret Service will escort Trump out of the White House. So we withdraw temporarily from this accord. What’s the problem unless Putin decides to have a Russian flight help Trump escape from Moscow on Jan. 19!

      Reply
  12. Willie

    When money is as cheap as it is now, debt makes sense. Lock it in long term if possible. National debt is a different animal from personal debt or even corporate debt. Using debt to rebuild the nation makes perfect sense provided that we don’t do stupid tax cuts.

    Reply
  13. How it is today

    This’ll happen; that’ll happen; it’s all going to hell; doom is coming, just you wait and see.

    It is incredible to see the percentage of writing in the last few years that is simply ‘Jeremiad Journalism’.
    Dire predictions, claiming a disastrous future as though it is accomplished fact and then drawing a conclusion from that. If we continue like this, I’m telling you, our society will be corrupted and our country ruined and all our virgins despoiled and our wells poisoned.

    Reply
      1. pgl

        Hey when it gets cold here – maybe the Black Lives Matter comrades could tell Tucker’s boys to get out and here so they can enjoy the heat.

        Reply
  14. ltr

    https://glineq.blogspot.com/2020/11/willing-meaningful-deaths-and-unwilling.html

    November 20, 2020

    Willing meaningful deaths and unwilling meaningless deaths

    In a recent Blomberg column * Tylor Cowen discusses how the relative positions of China and the US are affected by the pandemic. While the column makes some interesting points about the vaccines, and also rehashes the well-known arguments, many of which have nothing to do with the pandemic (China’s lack of allies and the problems of the Belt and Road Initiative), there is one especially perverse take of Cowen’s which needs to be challenged.

    He argues that quarter a million of American deaths (so far) shows America’s toughness, readiness “to tolerate causalities”, and to disprove Chinese military planners’ view of Americans as “soft” and effete….

    * https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-16/u-s-china-and-the-covid-19-vaccine-race

    — Branko Milanovic

    [ Libertarian thinking and meaning. ]

    Reply
    1. Macroduck

      Cowen fancies himself a restaurant critic, movie critic, social critic… This article is evidence of everything that is wrong with puditry, and with Cowen’s fancies. It’s shallow, a big “so what?” It’s unsupported by evidence. It’s 2 + ? = whatever he makes up. Cowen dumps his half-baked views on the public because Bloomberg pays him for them. Blame Bloomberg.

      Reply
    2. Ivan

      He may fool himself into thinking that the immense stupidity of letting this pandemic devastate our country is being tough. But in China they are laughing at how everybody whined being asked to put on a mask. Not only have we confirmed that we are soft, we have also proven that we are idiots.

      Reply
  15. Not Trampis

    you Yanks will not have any sort of recovery until you come to terms with the virus.

    Luckily most politicians have not taken stupid pills like some in the USA.
    Trump obviously lives on them

    Reply
  16. samir sardana

    If Trump ACTUALLY leaves office (which I doubt),then he will make a move on Iran and Taiwan.The move on Iran will also involve the IAF.(Israeli Air Force).dindooohindoo

    This is a certainty Post RCEP,as it is the largest Trading block in the world (by population).RCEP has knitted the ASEAN into the PRC garment.

    This will make the ASEAN people and the ASEAN governments DEPENDENT on PRC,and enable ASEAN to be partners in the PRC success story.Thereafter,excluding Nippon and South Korea,no other nation will ally with the Americans,and might also,not allow their ports,to be used by the US Navy – as the financial and economic loss,will be tangible and huge – with no ostensible strategic benefits,to the ASEAN nations.

    THAT IS A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT TO THE USA AND SO,THE AMERICANS WILL TEST THE GARMENT.

    Once a clash starts over Taiwan between USA and PRC, “SOME” ASEAN nations will join the US bandwagon.

    The 1st to break will be the Pinos and Malaysia (in the post Mahatir era).Japan and Seoul will always be in the American camp.Japan has A LARGE population and cannot to have a Tax and TBT on exports to PRC – as it is an export driven economy – and so,their joining RCEP is an economic compulsion, and they will remain an implacable foe of the PRC.Besides,Nippon and Seoul are signalling Beijing – that they expect Xi and the PLA to REIN IN DPRK !
    The same applies to Aussie and Kiwis.If Kiwi Agri exports fall,or are subject to Import Taxes and TBT in PRC – there will be a revolution in Kiwi land.Aussies have the
    same problem in minerals and agri exports to PRC – besides the fact that Indonesia is next to PRC, and has a HUGE Freight differential advantage w.r.t Aussies and w/o the concessional duties the Aussie Coal exports to PRC,would vanish.Like Japan, the Aussies will be an implacable foe of PRC as their interests and ideologies,will NEVER match or converge.

    Therefore ,with RCEP, it is CERTAIN that some disaster will happen in South China Sea BEFORE January 20,2021, to rip open the faultlines in the RCEP ,and also,FOR TRUMP, to leave a FAREWELL PRESENT for Biden and the PRC (and possibly prolong Trump in the White House – if he loses the legal challenges).So , as an example.if the Japs send in their Navy,to flank the US Navy – then,they will be out of RCEP. If DPRK uses the Taiwan Straits,as an opportunity,to make a move on Seoul,and PRC does not restrain DPRK, then Seoul will be out of the RCEP..

    If the Americans FAIL to stop the PLN and PLAF – then Vietnam will also chicken out

    Therefore, it is absolutely certain that a South China Sea disaster is inevitable in less than 60 days, and depending on its impact on the perception on the RCEP partners, other disasters will also unfold.

    Who will TRUMP strike 1st ? Iran or PRC ? With the US pull out from Kabul and Baghdad,there is the need for a DIVERSION for the MEDIA, and for the HAWKS, who
    would claim that Trump/USA is dropping guard,in front of “so called Islamic Terror”.

    Iran war will push up Oil Prices and PRC war will disrupt the Global Supply Chain – so 1st Iran, and then PRC.The Noise of Iran will offset the US pullout from Kabul etc and provide the cover for the PRC conflagaration.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Samir Sardana
      You know one of the ongoing mysteries to me of this blog, is how such an intelligent, grounded, and coherent blog attracts so may nutjobs. Samir, nothing personal…….. but you sound like either a foreigner who cannot use the English language properly at this moment of your life, or, if based in America for a decent amount of time, the average QAnon/AlexJones fan who should be admitted to the nearest mental health clinic. I wish you good luck if it is the latter, and I wish you would leave us alone if you are the former.

      People who don’t know the native language of the country they are targeting for propagandist objectives, usually fail in those same goals, please keep this in mind as you waste BOTH your own time, and ours.

      Reply
  17. pgl

    NYC COVID19 update in light of the rising cases nationwide. Our city in the aggregate are seeing increases in the number of cases. But much of this has to do with that forgotten borough known as Staten Island aka MAGA hat land. They are going into red zones in some cases. I’m not surprised but could the rest of my city just ban people from this island of really stupid people? Wear a mask idiots!

    Reply
  18. ltr

    The point is that the Trump administration is implementing policy now in such ways that reversal by the Biden administration will have difficulty in attempting reversal. This includes radical new foreign policy changes such as with Israel and, here, with Russia. Please, please just read these few words and try to understand:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-exits-open-skies-treaty-moves-to-discard-observation-planes-11606055371

    November 22, 2020

    Trump Exits Open Skies Treaty, Moves to Discard Observation Planes
    Without specialized aircraft and equipment, Biden administration would have difficult time re-entering post-Cold War pact
    By Michael R. Gordon – Wall Street Journal

    The Trump administration formally shut the door on the Open Skies treaty Sunday, exiting the agreement while moving to get rid of the U.S. Air Force planes that have been used to carry out the nearly three-decade-old accord.

    President Trump had served notice in May that the U.S. would withdraw in six months from the accord, which was intended to reduce the risk of war by allowing Russia and the West to carry out unarmed reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories….

    Reply
  19. ltr

    Forgive my carelessness above:

    The point is that the Trump administration is implementing policy now in such ways that the Biden administration will have difficulty in attempting reversal; just as noticed in reporting in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/19/world/middleeast/pompeo-bds-golan-heights-west-bank.html

    November 19, 2020

    Pompeo Visits West Bank Settlement and Offers Parting Gifts to Israeli Right
    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the boycott-Israel movement would be treated as anti-Semitic, and ordered that imports from Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank be labeled products of Israel.
    By David M. Halbfinger and Isabel Kershner

    …Mr. Pompeo’s whirlwind day was scarcely a mere victory lap. It was a last chance to reinforce Israel’s hard-line approach to the Palestinians and, as Democrats and other supporters of a two-state solution cried foul, to place political land mines in the path of the incoming Biden administration….

    Reply
  20. Moses Herzog

    I’m not even gonna say it:
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tony-blinken-secretary-of-state-biden-expected-to-announce/?ftag=CNM-00-10aba5f

    OK, I WILL say it. This is the part in the festivities where to avoid breaking out into extreme vulgarity that Menzie will filter (thereby making the whole comment moot) I tolerate incredibly crappy choices because “….but we could have had donald trump for a longer period of time, so, so, so, you should just be another p*ssy Democrat and be ‘thankful’ “

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Blinken is a decent choice – better than Pompeo. Yea a low bar.

      Biden passed up a great choice – Susan Rice – just to avoid riling up McConnell? Weak.

      Reply
      1. Baffling

        Blinken seems reasonable. Biden either did not believe rice was the right choice or rice declined. I think a bit of both. My guess is she wants a slightly lower profile position. And maybe she wants to influence a different part of policy than state. She is less politician, and more action.

        Reply
      2. Barkley Rosser

        As somebody who knows her and also super respects her, I have noted here previously a reason she might not get selected, and I can imagine this is something that Biden takes seriously for better or worse. It is the matter of her being, let me put it this way, sometimes “undiplomatic.” I hope she had a position in the admin doing something useful and important, but Blinken is certainly a decent and competent choice.

        Also, Kerry is being brought in to deal with climate issues diplomatically, which is very appropriate given his role in negotiating the Paris Climate Acord, and Yellen is a super pick for Treasury. As the only non-Trump appointee on the Fed Board of Govs, Brainerd really needs to stay there, and Warren would be replaced by a GOPster in the Senate if it was her.

        Reply
      3. macroduck

        Biden appears to have made a show of competence over celebrity. The exceptions, like Kerry and Yellen, are for the best of reasons. Once the Senate run-offs in Georgia are settled, we may see a change in approach, but for now I kinda think Biden is demonstrating what putting good governance over ideology looks like. Time for Warren, Abrams, Sanders and other progressives later. Even Rice might run into trouble in a Republican-led Senate.

        Remember “electability”? Cabinet picks so far look like an extension of electability.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          md,

          Yellen may be a “celebrity” for being well known as the first woman Fed Chair and holding other positions as well very successfully by all accounts over a long period of time. But her appointment is not a matter of “celebrity over competence.” She is probably the most competent possible candidate for the position, period, and by a long shot. But then I am a big fan of hers and have been for a long time.

          Also, Kerry is highly competent as well, although a much bigger celebrity for sure, heck, a former Dem candidate for president who claim close to winning, oh but for a few thousand voted in Ohio in 2004.

          Reply
  21. Moses Herzog

    Anywayz, donald trump isn’t acting like a small toddler in the grocer checkout line who can’t get his mother to buy him the Milky Way candy bar, right??
    “At least one Trump observer was escorted out of the building by sheriff’s deputies Saturday after pushing an election official who had lifted her coat from an observer chair. Another Trump observer was removed Friday for not wearing a face mask properly as required.

    Trump paid $3 million, as required by state law, for the partial recount that began Friday and must conclude by Dec. 1.

    His team is seeking to disqualify ballots where election clerks filled in missing address information on the certification envelope where the ballot is inserted, even though the practice has long been accepted in Wisconsin.”
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin-officials-trump-observers-obstructing-214713368.html

    Reply
  22. pgl

    Lying for Trump is fine as long as you do not embarrass the team?

    Trump campaign cuts ties with attorney Sidney Powell after bizarre election fraud claims | US news | The Guardian

    ‘Perhaps Sidney Powell has gone too far even for Rudy Giuliani this time. The Trump campaign’s legal team has moved to distance itself from the firebrand conservative attorney after a tumultuous few days in which Powell made multiple incorrect statements about the election voting process, unspooled complex conspiracy theories and vowed to “blow up” Georgia with a “biblical” lawsuit. “Sidney Powell is practicing law on her own. She is not a member of the Trump legal team. She is also not a lawyer for the president in his personal capacity,” Giuliani and another lawyer for Trump, Jenna Ellis, said in a statement on Sunday.
    Trump himself has heralded Powell’s involvement, tweeting last week that she was part of a team of “wonderful lawyers and representatives” spearheaded by Giuliani. There was no immediate clarification from the campaign and Powell did not immediately return an email seeking comment.
    The statement hints at chaos in a legal team that has lost case after case in its efforts to overturn the results of the 3 November election. Law firms have withdrawn from cases, and in the latest setback, Matthew Brann, a Republican US district court judge in Pennsylvania, threw out the Trump campaign’s request to disenfranchise almost 7 million voters there. “This claim, like Frankenstein’s Monster, has been haphazardly stitched together from two distinct theories in an attempt to avoid controlling precedent,” he wrote in a damning order, issued on Saturday. On Sunday afternoon, the Trump campaign filed an appeal against Brann’s ruling in Pennsylvania.’

    Wait – she is wonderful but now she is fired? OK – she is nutjob but she is no different from Rudy hair dye Giuliani.

    Reply
    1. Dr. Dysmalist

      Trump regards anyone who abases themselves on his behalf as “wonderful” and “doing a terrific job, really terrific” until they become an embarrassment and/or do something illegal. At that point, he “doesn’t really know” them, and they’re suddenly only peripherally associated with his Administration or his campaign, or his business, etc. All of his relationships are transactional, probably even with his own children. “It’s sad, really sad,” in this case literally so.

      Reply
      1. Willie

        Get caught doing something illegal in a way that makes him personally look bad. He doesn’t seem to care if all kinds of illegal things are done for his behalf. That’s all.

        Reply
  23. pgl

    A steady stream of Republican complaints in Milwaukee was putting the recount far behind schedule, county clerk George Christenson said. He said many Trump observers were breaking rules by constantly interrupting vote counters with questions and comments. “That’s unacceptable,” he said. He said some of the Trump observers “clearly don’t know what they are doing.” Tim Posnanski, a county election commissioner, told his fellow commissioners there appeared to be two Trump representatives at some tables where tabulators were counting ballots, violating rules that call for one observer from each campaign per table. Posnanski said some Trump representatives seemed to be posing as independents. At one recount table, a Trump observer objected to every ballot that tabulators pulled from a bag simply because they were folded, election officials told the panel. Posnanski called it “prima facie evidence of bad faith by the Trump campaign.” He added later: “I want to know what is going on and why there continues to be obstruction.”

    It is bad faith but Sammy wants the obstructionists to go further. Maybe beating up the vote counters and then infecting them with COVID19. MAGA!

    Reply
  24. pgl

    Matthew Yglesias has a new blog with some Cabinet speculation

    Janet Yellen’s mistake – Slow Boring

    “Today I want to talk about Janet Yellen, who is increasingly rumored to be in line to serve as Joe Biden’s Secretary of Treasury.
    Janet Yellen is a great economist with an extremely strong academic record. She was the second woman to chair the Council of Economic Advisors (under Bill Clinton) and the first woman to chair the Federal Reserve (under Barack Obama), and after speculation had long centered on Lael Brainard, Yellen has now emerged as a likely candidate to be the first woman to serve as Treasury Secretary.
    She’s unquestionably well qualified for the job, she’s extremely well liked by everyone who’s worked for her, and there seems to be a sense in the Biden Universe that she’d be supported by both the progressive and centrist wings of the party in a way that Brainard wouldn’t be. That all makes sense, and I do think that if Biden picks her, few will want to criticize what would be an extraordinary capstone for the career of an extraordinary woman. Nobody has ever held the CEA/Fed/Treasury triple crown of economic policy jobs, and it would, among other things, create an incredible situation in which her husband George Akerlof is clearly the less professionally distinguished member of the couple even though he has a Nobel Prize.
    But I want to be a spoilsport and talk about a mistake Yellen made as Fed chair.”

    Matt is referring to the decision in 2016 to raise interest rates. Was that a mistake? Read his case and comment.

    Reply
      1. Not Trampis

        No,
        Very similar but Yellen no longer on the Fed.
        Brainard would need to be replaced.
        A good choice.
        mind you I said that about OBama’s Treasury choice and i was wrong about him.

        Reply
    1. Baffling

      I like janet. But i dont think she would be a great treasury secretary. Love to see her back in the fed. I thought she was fantastic as fed chair, even though she raised rates at wrong time.

      Reply
      1. Barkley Rosser

        Why not, baffling? She is always the most prepared person in any room she is in. She has done an excellent job with all the various appointments she has had. She has excellent relations with the current Fed Chair as well as many central bankers around the world. While not having worked in Treasury, she knows it very well from working at both the Fed and as CEA Chair. She has exceptional personal and personnel skills, able to achieve consensus while keeping those around her happy. I have heard from those who have worked for her at various places including the SF Fed that she was president of, that she is simply a superb administrator who is loved by all who work for her. And, then on top of it all, aside from being married to Nobelist George Akerlog, she is “incredibly smart” and knows economics “very deeply” and able to sharply question economic models and theories. She was the first person in any position of authority to see the 2008 crash coming. As a senior in high school in Brooklyn she was going to Columbia to study nonlinear differential equations.

        So, baffling, go ahead. Tell us who is more competent for the job. Sorry not either Brainard or Warren or anybody else you can dig up. Nobody.

        Reply
        1. baffling

          i would be happy to be wrong about yellen. and i never said she was not competent. but as i commented about rice previously, people have certain skill sets that match some jobs better than others. i see janet as an intelligent wonk who is also an effective administrator. she is able to convince the people under her to follow her guidance, because she is smart and well articulated. as a treasury secretary, she will also need to be a politician. i have not seen that skill set in her, at least not yet. she could surprise me. but she has lived a rather long life without being a politician. there may be a reason for that. hope i am wrong, as she looks to be the next secretary. i do not have a name being more competent, sorry.

          Reply
    2. Moses Herzog

      @ pgl
      I have a very crucial policy question to ask. Because Yglesias seems to prefer Brainard, does these mean Yglesias is just into choosing technocrats because he thinks they are young/hot chicks (58 blonde vs 74 silver-haired)?? I’m asking as an unofficial representative of “FemaleNoSpeak” blog, that feels so strongly on this issue they have female posters active there once every generation.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        I have no clue as to Yglesias’s sexual preferences. All I know is Akerloff loves his wife even if she is smarter than he is.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          I know them both. He is smarter than she is, but she is far more practical than he is. You want her in charge of things like the Fed and the Treasury now. But a century from now, nobody will give a phoo about her, but Akerlof’s Nobel Prize winning paper will be taught and will influence huge amounts of not only economic thought but also policy far into the future.

          Reply
          1. Barkley Rosser

            Just to be clear, George Akerlof is a classic “absent-minded professor.” Doe not necessarily even know if he has his shoes on or not, much less what day of the week it is. The super organized, efficient, and competent Janet is the perfect complement to him. And heck, she can still be smarter than most people in most rooms she is in, which is usually the case, as well as always better prepared, and still not be smarter than he is.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            So I am going to add more for the interested on George and Janet, starting with my last comment should have said that she is the smartest person in most rooms she is in, and always the best prepared. Her only rival for brains at the top of the Fed is Jim Bullard, prez of the St. Louis Fed, and with her gone its intellectual heavyweight and swing vote on the FOMC. I knew him back in the 90s when he was pubbing on chaos theory in JET, but then he went on to be Research Director at the St. Louis Fed, with a side appointment at Wash U. When he became prez there he also continued to be coeditor of the highly mathematical Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, the only person at that level of the Fed doing such a thing, which he finally gave up as just too much time on the side. He is her only match over there, someone “incredibly smart” as she was described as being in yesterday’s WaPo.

            Bur it is easy right now with all the favorable (and deserved) publicity she is getting to downplay or dismiss her Nobelist husband, George Akerlof, the absent minded professor. But in fact there are two types of Nobel Prize winners: the real ones who deserve to get it by themselves because they are giant timbers in the forest, and then the second tier ones who got as coauthors or followeres of somebodey else worthier. George is one of the former, although his prize was shared with Stiglitz and Spence, with both George and Stiglitz having desrved to get theirs by themseves.

            Indeed, George’s now half century old paper, “The Market for Lemons” is actually one of the single most important papers written in economics in the entire last half century, indeed longer, the paper that formally introduced the concept of asymmetric information into economics. I was reminded how important it is by a post Tyler Cowen put up yesterday on Marginal Revolution. He showed the grad ,micro exam from MIT for 1961. Some items on it are now upper level undergrad, and one is now viewed as purely macro, a question about real vs nominal interest rates. But what triggered discussion was what was not on there that would be now at pretty muc any major econ grad program. That would be two items and their combination: one is the development of game theory beyond the Nash equilibrium (there were no game theory questions on that 1961 exam), and the other would be asymmetric informationi, which George Akerlof would set off the study of nine years later with his breakthrough paper. Combininb hose topics has been a major topic modern micro in recent decdades, with the most recent Nobel to Milgrom and Wilson rewarding two who have successfully pursued that research agenda.

            So the bottom line is that George Akerlof is one of the most important and nfluential economists of the last half century, and people will be studying his work a century from now, even if he is not aways sure what day of the week it is without his incredibly smart and super well organized wife telling him. I can also attest that he is a super nice guy, widely viewed as absolutely one of the nicest is in the whole profession. His niceness makes up for an awful lot of bad behavior by so many of the rest of us.

      2. macroduck

        Brainard is more overtly political than Yellen. If I read the choices Biden is making correctly (and there is no reason to believe that I do), then Biden picked Yellen in part to smooth the politics of transition. Brainard’s intelligence, knowledge of policy and of economics make her too good to ignore, but this is early days.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          The point that Biden would need to get a replacement for her through the Senate is a major reason for keeping the highly competent Brainard at the Fed. She does have more experience at Treasury than does Yellen, but Yellen is simply another order of magnitude better than Brainard as both a policymaker and an administrator. It is best for Brainard to stay at the Fed.

          Reply
    3. Barkley Rosser

      I don’t think it was a mistake. Allowed them to lower them again when the pandemic crash hit with a stimulus effect. There is a long term problem for pensions and so on from overly low interest rates over a long period of time.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        What would John “interest rates too low for too long” say about this? Oh yea – the FED was not following HIS rule. Yellen updated Taylor’s “rule” from the 1990’s to capture the reality at the time. Taylor alas would have jacked up interest rates as early as 2010.

        Reply
      2. baffling

        “from overly low interest rates over a long period of time.”
        by what metric are you defining them as overly low rates? by overly low, i am reading into your words that they were lower than they should have been. maybe i am reading you wrong here? but if they were lower than they should have been, what would have been the proper rates?
        as for pensions and so on, it simply means they are not in the correct investment category for the returns they desire. most pension funds are simply not being honest about what returns should be expected. many retirees today think they should get the same benefits from those who retired in the 1990’s. its a different world unfortunately. guaranteed income is now expensive. you cannot fight the math.

        Reply
    4. Dr. Dysmalist

      Yellen already has the gravitas to defend Biden’s economic policies among those who understand economics as well as the D.C. Very Serious People and a reasonable proportion of the public. Brainerd has a great reputation among the first group (from what I read), but she seems not well known among the second group, and completely unknown to the vast majority of the third. While I would love for her to have a much larger role in economic policy than being one of seven Governors and one of twelve on the FOMC, Yellen may offer a greater payoff in the short run.

      Reply
      1. macroduck

        Hard to imagine a much greater role in policy than Brainard already has. Influence within the FOMC depends on smarts. Powell, who is not an economist and knows he is not an economist, wisely relies on his economist colleagues. Brainard is very influential where she is. If Biden wants her, and I think he will at some point, then Biden’s gain will be Powell’s loss.

        Reply
  25. ltr

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    November 22, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 12,588,661)
    Deaths   ( 262,696)

    India

    Cases   ( 9,140,312)
    Deaths   ( 133,773)

    France

    Cases   ( 2,140,208)
    Deaths   ( 48,732)

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,512,045)
    Deaths   ( 55,024)

    Mexico

    Cases   ( 1,032,688)
    Deaths   ( 101,373)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 932,111)
    Deaths   ( 14,343)

    Canada

    Cases   ( 330,503)
    Deaths   ( 11,455)

    China

    Cases   ( 86,431)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

    Reply
  26. ltr

    November 22, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 809)
    US   ( 792)
    Mexico   ( 783)
    France   ( 746)

    Canada   ( 302)
    Germany   ( 171)
    India   ( 97)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.8%, 3.6% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.

    Reply
  27. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-11-new-COVID-19-cases-VDYRtpV972/index.html

    November 23, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 11 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland registered 11 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, of which 9 cases were from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Monday.

    Two cases were domestically transmitted in Shanghai, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.

    A total of 10 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 357 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Sunday, and 9 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    As of Sunday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,442, with 4,634 fatalities.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-11-new-COVID-19-cases-VDYRtpV972/img/cd66cc4e58c649a0a4d71552d392f756/cd66cc4e58c649a0a4d71552d392f756.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-11-new-COVID-19-cases-VDYRtpV972/img/bc6155392987478b94d576ad3448a9ac/bc6155392987478b94d576ad3448a9ac.jpeg

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending completely in a few weeks.

    Community cases have just been detected in 2 cities and are being followed with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine used to identify the origins as well as to contain the infections.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.  Cold-chain imported food products are all checked.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 315 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 6 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

    Reply
  28. baffling

    stephen moore has about as much integrity as our resident porn star rick stryker. both of them would rather see democracy fail than admit the trump administration has been a colossal failure on just about every front. at least rick can now quit his day job and return to his night job as a political hack accusing democrats of …..everything bad.

    Reply
  29. ltr

    https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/German-protesters-slammed-for-comparing-lockdown-to-Nazi-horror-VDnqPQiif6/index.html

    November 23, 2020

    German protesters slammed for comparing lockdown to Nazi horror
    By Tim Hanlon

    German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has slammed anti-mask protesters who compared themselves to Nazi victims, for trivialising the Holocaust and the courage of resistance fighters.

    There have been demonstrations throughout Germany over coronavirus restrictions with a new lockdown imposed for November.

    During a protest in Hanover, a woman took to the stage and said she felt “just like Sophie Scholl,” the German student executed by the Nazis in 1943 for her role in the resistance.

    A video of the speech has already been viewed more than a million times on social media, with many sharply condemning the speaker.

    “Anyone today comparing themselves to Sophie Scholl or Anne Frank is making a mockery of the courage it took to stand up to the Nazis,” Maas tweeted.

    “It trivialises the Holocaust and shows an unbearable forgetting of history. Nothing connects the corona protests with the resistance fighters. Nothing!”

    In the clip, a steward is seen interrupting the woman on stage to hand over his orange high-visibility vest, saying her words amounted to “minimising the Holocaust”.

    “I’m not working security for such nonsense,” he is heard saying before being escorted away….

    Reply
  30. ltr

    What it meant for German public health authorities to protect against the epidemic, even at the expense of being likened to officials of the 1930s:

    November 22, 2020

    Coronavirus

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,512,045)
    Deaths   ( 55,024)

    Deaths per million   ( 809)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 932,111)
    Deaths   ( 14,343)

    Deaths per million   ( 171)

    Reply
  31. Moses Herzog

    Maybe I’m “jumping the gun” and a little bit too quick to get angry here?? I just had to remind myself, that Susan Rice could still get head of CIA or the Secretary Defense jobs. Arguably, those are more”hard-nosed” jobs than Sec or State duties. I’m not gonna lie about it. I’m kinda gonna be pissed off if Susan Rice doesn’t get one of those top jobs. There’s no excuse for it. If he can choose a non-substantive VP just because she hangs out the “minority” sign out, Biden can sure as hell choose a real black woman who actually has her sh*t together. I’m sorry, I don’t know any other way to express it.

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      I do not think she is in line for DOD, where it looks like Flourney who was there. But she might be excellent as either CIA or DNI, in charge of the whole intel establishment, although I am of the view that the whole ONI operation should probably be shut down. But in one of those two positions her occasional “lack of diplomacy” would be less of a problem, and she definitely has the hard skills for one of those hard and important positions.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Rosser
        The last portion of your comment is one of the rare moments we would agree pretty dead on. Although I should say I definitely view those “hard skills” as positive traits in the way Rice utilizes them. Sharp elbows can come in handy on those type jobs. I would guess that Leon Panetta was a lot more hard-nosed than he came across as in public settings and Obama knew that when he chose him for head of CIA, which can be un unbelievably “unwieldy” apparatus to lead as far as this Joe Six-Pack can make out.

        I’m trying not to be baby-ish about this, but I strongly believe she deserves some leadership position. You’re leaving a lot of solid skills dormant if you don’t have her there somewhere where she has some ability to be “master of her own domain”.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          I should add, just in the name of redundancy and my usual habit of beating the dead horse to an unrecognizable pulp~~~Susan Rice has EARNED that type of job. She has EARNED it, and I would take it very personally if I were her and nothing heavy got handed my way. You guys can say whatever you want, she took a medieval sword to the face for Hillary, and nearly the equivalent to a stab in the back from Obama until he gave her the NSA job. None of them have any morals if they leave her with lightweight sh*t at this point.

          Reply
  32. Baffling

    “ I just had to remind myself, that Susan Rice could still get head of CIA or the Secretary Defense jobs. Arguably, those are more”hard-nosed” jobs than Sec or State duties.”
    Agreed. I dont think state is where her mind and strengths reside. She is much more of a wonk than diplomat.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      And there is something wrong with having smart people in high places? I guess you would prefer Ivanka in one of these roles because she is cute even if she is dumber than the rock she married?

      Reply
      1. baffling

        “And there is something wrong with having smart people in high places?”
        certain jobs require certain skill sets. by definition, state requires somebody who is diplomatic. that is not a requirement of cia or defense. they all require somebody smart. she will be most successful in a job that matches her skill set. look no further than pompeo to see somebody who lacks the requisite criteria, and you get the resulting poor job performance. rice can, and will, be successful in the right position. she has shown this to be true in the past.

        Reply
        1. macroduck

          Wellll, …maybe a little diplomacy would hurt at CIA and at Defense. Think about Bill Casey. He undertook a god bit of diplomacy while at CIA. Military attaches around the world answer to DOD and to the ambassador on paper, but really to DOD first. DOD (like AG and Treasury) often behaves like an independent actor in representing “U.S.” (which is to say, their own) interests. It’s complicated.

          Reply
        2. Barkley Rosser

          It is embarrassingly bizarre and inappropriate that Pompeo is criticizing Biden’s choice for his successor. That this is about him trying to run for prez in the future is seen by his highlighting especially that Biden’s team is likely to get back into the Iran nuclear deal, which he thinks is a sign of some kind of blatant incompetence and recklessness, when everybody in the world aside from a couple of nations think that Trump’s getting out of the treaty with the strong support of Pompeo was one of the worst things he did in his entire admin. But the withdrawal followed shortly on Pompeo becoming SecState, so it is definitely his thing, and it appeals to the evangelical right, of which he is a part.

          Reply
  33. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 19 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.  Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries.  Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.

    November 22, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 792) *

    Brazil   ( 794)
    Argentina   ( 816)
    Colombia   ( 691)

    Mexico   ( 783)
    Peru   ( 1,074)
    Chile   ( 786)

    Ecuador   ( 744)
    Bolivia   ( 759)

    * Descending number of cases

    Reply
  34. Moses Herzog

    I often can’t understand how my own mind works sometimes. Mostly dysfunctionally. I’m just sitting here thinking about the two top things on NYT tonight, the GSA finally giving President=Elect Biden the funds they should have given him two weeks ago. Michigan confirming results for Biden’s win, and then this thought just pretty much hits me “randomly” in my head. “I wonder how much Tucker Carlson will miss and nostalgically opine for moments like this??”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFOyCwCRTgw

    Makes complete oafs and morons like sammy, Bruce Hall, CoRev, and Rick Stryker feel patriotic doesn’t it?? Remember these sh*theads when they were attacking President Obama for following Mideast cultural protocol by giving the leader a token gift?? If donald trump s*d*mized Mohammed bin Salman on internationally broadcast live TV, Rick Stryker tonight would tell us all that patriotically it equated to being a Korean War hero.

    Reply
  35. Moses Herzog

    Not impressed with Flournoy. Strikes me as a blowhard and someone way too in love with herself. Not the type person to listen—that usually ends up with situations like Benghazi, where you had multiple red flags and one arrogant person (read: Hillary) too busy getting her self-adoration verified than ever knowing what was happening on the ground I already foresee problems with this woman. Does she have a mirror over her bed?? People like this rarely do well. These are the types where you have some huge blow-up that was building up over time. Too much navel-gazing.

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Gag. Moses, you have no standing or intelligence or knowledge about who should be a part of the Biden admin, Your comments are garbage. But then you are yourself personally garbage.

      You have been challenged after long repeated lying to put up or shut up, Moses. You have done neither. It is becoming a matter of morality, Menzie. You must expel this worthless Trumpist troll garbage. Just do it, please.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        Flournoy actually does remind me a lot of you. She’s probably slightly more manly than you, but otherwise the personality profile is very similar.

        Reply
      2. Menzie Chinn Post author

        Barkley Rosser: Per policy, only racist/misogynistic statements and profanity will spur banning. I’d guess if anybody incited violence, that would trigger banning as well. Once I started banning individuals who I thought deserved it, I’d have to spend time I don’t have making such determinations. Nonetheless, I regret that you have to endure many juvenile comments. I will consult to see if we should expand the set of inadmissable comments.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          If that is applied equally, I have no problems with that. Because if it is applied equally, I don’t think poor Junior will get what he imagines. I suppose you could include “ageism”, but even then I think if applied equally, that policy is not going to go how Barkley imagines. What really bothers Barkley is I have highlighted areas where he is factually and blatantly wrong, and this bothers Barkley much more than any false claims of sexism, etc. There have been people on here who have made inherently racist comments, think New Jersey here, and much more extreme gender related comments than me. “We” veil what our Harrisonburg man, who shames PhDs everywhere with nonfactual statements, is really upset about, with childish cries of sexism (which he really has zero concern about). His 2nd Quarter clusterF is what is really gnawing at Barkley, that and the fact that no matter how much Barkley keeps screaming “the mid-day sky is red” (i.e.” I predicted a ‘V’ shaped recovery, this is a ‘V’ shaped recovery) no one here with a functioning brain is buying that children’s fable.

          You know how to make make Barkley feel better?? Next time he says people like your thesis adviser Jeffrey Frankel is drastically wrong on Quarterly GDP during a major downturn, edit THAT comment, then he won’t have to get all worked up when someone points that out to him~~or rather when someone won’t let him get way with his Fantasyland world, in which he “predicted” this, and is never wrong. This is the core of Barkley’s little babyfit here at the grocery checkout lane.

          Reply
          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Moses Herzog: We all make errors of math, fact, or norms. As long as the commenter allows that they made a mistake, then it seems to me unfair to keep on harping on a point. Consider commenters like rtd, sammy, and CoRev or Rick Stryker never made such admissions.

            Moreover, I think stating that people are senile, suffering from dementia, and/or making reference to bodily functions distasteful, and lowers the general level of the discourse on this blog. We have not banned such commentary thus far, for the sake of free exchange of thoughts (and safeguarding our time, which *is* limited). Should such a ban be emplaced, we will apply it equally as we see it (I think you see I edit for profanity equally; several comments are completely deleted, which you do *not* see).

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Menzie,

          I am going to do my best to ignore Moses’s slams at me, although it gets; plenty annoying obviously. Everybody here knows he is a troll, and he has openly admitted that his going after me is sadism motivated by hate, not to mention he completely melted down here a week ago on Friday almost like he was Rudy Giuliani trying to hold a press conference.

          So, I shall do my best to just ignore him and also avoid use of bad language.

          Reply
          1. Barkley Rosser

            I will, however, for maybe the last time note that Moses has yet to admit that he was wrong about consumption growth in May and the shape of the second quarter pattern, which was indeed a V that flattened, which, one more time, I was the first to call here, with many agreeing, although even now he somehow thinks that this observation is one that “no one here with a functioning brain is buying,” when lots of people here have accepted, with about the only person not doing so as near as I can tell being Not Trampis, who insists a V must be a perfect V like one finds in a dictionary.

            Anyway, I shall try not to say anything further on that, or to repeat to Moses my call for him to “put up or shut up” regarding his onw still secret second quarter pattern forecast.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            I will add a comment I made on the previous thread way down.

            I apologize for getting so grumpy and snappish in some of my comments here. But in fact in the last week and a half there has been an outbreak of serious, non-Covid, health problems in my family, with at least one of them likely to be fatal. This put me in a an especially bad mood for engaging in polite discourse with anybody throwing unreasonable jibes at me.

      3. pgl

        Watching Biden and Harris introduce their national security team. Single thought – amateur hour is over as this is the A team.

        Now when we have the A team in regards economics, the clown show (Navarro, Ross, Moore, Kudlow, Mnuchin etc) can take their stupid act on the road.

        Reply
  36. ltr

    November 23, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 12,777,174)
    Deaths   ( 263,687)

    India

    Cases   ( 9,177,722)
    Deaths   ( 134,254)

    France

    Cases   ( 2,144,660)
    Deaths   ( 49,232)

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,527,495)
    Deaths   ( 55,230)

    Mexico

    Cases   ( 1,041,875)
    Deaths   ( 101,676)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 946,648)
    Deaths   ( 14,583)

    Canada

    Cases   ( 337,555)
    Deaths   ( 11,521)

    China

    Cases   ( 86,442)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

    Reply
  37. ltr

    November 23, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 809)
    US   ( 795)
    Mexico   ( 785)
    France   ( 754)

    Canada   ( 304)
    Germany   ( 174)
    India   ( 97)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.8%, 3.6% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.

    Reply
  38. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-VFFynlpOEw/index.html

    November 24, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 22 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland registered 22 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, of which 20 cases were from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Tuesday.

    Two cases were domestically transmitted, with 1 reported in north China’s Tianjin Municipality and 1 in Shanghai, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.

    A total of 8 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 348 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Monday, and 15 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    As of Monday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,464, with 4,634 fatalities.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-VFFynlpOEw/img/8d2ce8dd43424cb6ac9957daef2a912d/8d2ce8dd43424cb6ac9957daef2a912d.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-24/Chinese-mainland-reports-22-new-COVID-19-cases-VFFynlpOEw/img/94d56e30062049b791267849a248f7f9/94d56e30062049b791267849a248f7f9.jpeg

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending completely in a few weeks.

    Community cases have just been detected in 2 cities and are being followed with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine used to identify the origins as well as to contain the infections.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.  Cold-chain imported food products are all checked.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 322 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 6 of which cases are classed as serious or critical.

    Reply
  39. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-24/-It-is-in-space-exploration-that-the-future-for-mankind-lies-VEYwhHzR2U/index.html

    November 24, 2020

    It is in space exploration that the future for mankind lies
    By Marsha Freeman

    The Chang’e-5 mission to return samples of soil and rocks from the Moon is under way, following its launch on a Long March 5B heavy lift rocket. This sample return mission is the final and most complex of the six missions in the lunar exploration program that Chinese scientists developed 20 years ago.

    The scientists are able to carry out programs over decades because they are a key part of the economic fabric of Chinese society, particularly with the present orientation toward an innovation-driven economy.

    Chang’e-1 and 2 were each single-spacecraft, which orbited the Moon. Their job was to provide scientists with photographs of the surface to be used in future missions to choose suitable landing spots.

    Chang’e-3 was followed by children as well as by adults, especially curious about the exploits of the rover Yutu. Chang’e-4 for the first time in history landed on the far side of the Moon. A relay satellite was needed to allow communication between Chang’e-4 and Earth.

    Chang’e-5 is still more complex. The goal of the mission is to bring at least 2 kilograms of rocks and soil from the Moon. There will also be a few locations where a drill will go down deeper and retrieve soil. Ye Peijian, the chief designer of Chang’e-1, notes: “Chang’e-5 will also carry a drilling machine to get Moon rock from a depth of 2 meters underground.” Ye also revealed that experts from Hong Kong and Macao would also participate in the lunar probe project.

    The biggest challenge in the mission is to bring back the samples to Earth. To do this requires four vehicles, a service module, a return vehicle, the lander, and the ascent vehicle. The Chang’e-5 orbiter carries the collection hardware and the return vehicle. After the robotic lunar lander collects samples, they are placed in an ascent vehicle which will launch from the lunar surface and must rendezvous and dock with the orbiter. No other sample return mission by the Soviet Union did any robotic rendezvous and docking. This requires highly precise timing. If the orbiter or the ascent vehicle were off by a small amount, they would miss rendezvous with the orbiter. When the orbiter gets close to the Earth, the capsule with the samples will be released to land in the same region where the Shenzhou astronauts land.

    When the samples come back they will undergo thorough study. Lunar soil is formed by the lunar rock which has been weathered by meteorite impact, solar wind bombardment and cosmic ray radiation. By studying these lunar soil materials, scientists can not only understand the geological evolution of the Moon, but will also provide them with greater understanding of solar activities.

    This effort will be of immense benefit for mankind. Space exploration has always provided the “new frontier” of science ever since Sputnik and the U.S. Apollo program. Unfortunately, because of the intense media hype in the West about the “China threat,” cooperation between the U.S. and China in manned space has come to a halt. And most recently the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in a report, “China’s Space and Counterspace Capabilities and Activities,” wants to place even further restrictions on such cooperation.

    Many U.S. analysts find this terribly short-sighted….

    Reply
  40. randomworker

    Menzie, could you address Marco Rubios tweet about Biden’s cabinet and China? Specifically, has our trade deficit with China closed any the last 4 years? Thanks!

    Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools,have strong resumes,attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline

    I support American greatness

    And I have no interest in returning to the “normal” that left us dependent on China

    Reply
    1. macroduck

      The U.S. deficit with China peaked in 2018 at $419 billion. The deficit was smaller in 2019 than in 2017, Trump’s first year in office, and is likely to come in smaller this year. Note, however, that China’s trade surplus is back near a record level this year and the U.S. deficit widened fairly steadily during Trump’s term. What has happened is trade diversion in response to tariffs, not an improvement in the U.S. position. Focus on bilateral deficits is a silly game played by politicians.

      Reply
  41. ltr

    “Retreat” is over; the empire returns:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/britain-military-spending/2020/11/19/f1483834-29de-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html

    November 19, 2020

    Britain announces its largest military investment since the Cold War
    By Karla Adam – Washington Post

    LONDON — Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Thursday announced Britain’s biggest boost in military spending since the end of the Cold War, as the country looks to head off threats from China and Russia and exert “global influence” as a power separate from the European Union.

    Over the next four years, the British armed forces will receive an extra 16.5 billion pounds ($21 billion), helping to develop cyber- and space capabilities, create an artificial-intelligence agency and “restore Britain’s position as the foremost naval power in Europe,” Johnson said.

    Britain — which has fought alongside the United States in places such as Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan — already had one of the largest military budgets in Europe, surpassing the NATO guideline of 2 percent of gross domestic product. This new budget would represent a 10 percent rise from previous spending plans, in what the government characterized as the largest increase in 30 years.

    Britain will “end the era of retreat, transform our armed forces, bolster our global influence,” Johnson told Parliament via video link….

    Reply
  42. ltr

    Better the empire than public health or the National Health Service:

    November 23, 2020

    Coronavirus

    UK

    Cases ( 1,527,495)
    Deaths ( 55,230)

    Deaths per million ( 812)

    Germany

    Cases ( 946,648)
    Deaths ( 14,583)

    Deaths per million ( 174)

    Reply
  43. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/Last-nine-counties-in-China-taken-off-poverty-list-VEt2hd9rWw/index.html

    November 23, 2020

    China delists all remaining poverty-stricken counties

    The last nine poverty-stricken counties in southwest China’s Guizhou Province have been officially removed from the poverty list, the provincial government announced on Monday.

    They were also the last remaining poverty-stricken counties in China.

    China has vowed to eradicate absolute poverty by 2020 – a major task in its drive to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.

    At the end of 2019, 52 counties in the northwest, southwest and south of the country remained on the poverty list: nine in Yunnan Province, 10 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, one in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, seven in Sichuan Province, eight in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, eight in Gansu Province and nine in Guizhou Province.

    Assessment by third-party agencies earlier this month showed that the poverty incidence in the nine counties in Guizhou decreased to zero percent and that the satisfaction rate among locals was over 99 percent, said Li Jian, director of the provincial poverty alleviation and development office, at a press briefing.

    The average annual net income of impoverished people in these nine counties has risen to 11,487 yuan (about $1,740), well above the 4,000-yuan (about $609) national poverty line set this year, Li said.

    A program to relocate poor rural residents has contributed significantly to Guizhou’s success in poverty reduction. About 1.88 million people living in poor mountainous areas have been relocated to urban areas, according to provincial authorities. Various supporting measures have been taken to ensure that at least one person on average in each relocated household gets employed….

    Reply
    1. baffling

      i think you and i have a difference of opinion on what it means to live in poverty conditions. china has a long ways to go in this regard, irregardless of what a “third party agency” declares. china is making progress. but this amounts to a declaration of success. they are not there yet. not close.

      Reply
  44. ltr

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=whaG

    January 30, 2018

    United States Goods Imports from minus Exports to China Mainland and Hong Kong, 2017-2018

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=y5wh

    January 30, 2018

    United States Goods Imports from and Exports to China Mainland & Hong Kong, 2017-2018

    [ The ceaseless vilification of China through the Trump years frightens me, but has been ineffective and even self-defeating to the extent that policy has been meant to harm China. The unfortunate intent of policy as was pointed out * early on in the Washington Post was to stop Chinese development, but this has assuredly not happened.

    * https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/04/trump-is-asking-china-to-redo-just-about-everything-with-its-economy/ ]

    Reply
  45. joseph

    Marco Rubio: “Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools,have strong resumes,attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline”

    Marco Rubio, dumbass faux populist. Here is Trump’s cabinet:

    Pompeo – Harvard
    Mnuchin – Yale
    Barr – Columbia
    Ross – Yale
    Azar – Yale
    Carson – Yale
    Donald J. Trump – UPenn (is that really an Ivy?)

    And then there’s fail-son Jared Kushner, whose father had to pay Harvard $2.5 million to get him admitted.

    Reply
    1. noneconomist

      Yes. We need more experts from Bob Jones, Liberty, and Hillsdale. I would add BYU, but the Mormon thing gets in the way.

      Reply
  46. ltr

    November 24, 2020

    Coronavirus

    Sweden

    Cases   ( 225,560)
    Deaths   ( 6,500)

    Deaths per million   ( 642)

    Denmark

    Cases   ( 73,021)
    Deaths   ( 797)

    Deaths per million   ( 137)

    The arbitrary, now insistent, technocratic approach to the spread of the coronavirus taken in Sweden has been troubling to me from the beginning.

    Reply
  47. ltr

    November 24, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 12,955,007)
    Deaths   ( 265,891)

    India

    Cases   ( 9,221,998)
    Deaths   ( 134,743)

    France

    Cases   ( 2,153,815)
    Deaths   ( 50,237)

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,538,794)
    Deaths   ( 55,838)

    Mexico

    Cases   ( 1,049,358)
    Deaths   ( 101,926)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 962,906)
    Deaths   ( 14,965)

    Canada

    Cases   ( 341,503)
    Deaths   ( 11,608)

    China

    Cases   ( 86,464)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

    Reply
  48. ltr

    November 24, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 821)
    US   ( 801)
    Mexico   ( 787)
    France   ( 754)

    Canada   ( 307)
    Germany   ( 178)
    India   ( 97)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.7%, 3.6% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.

    Reply
  49. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-25/Chinese-mainland-reports-five-new-COVID-19-cases-VHkrMUSxSo/index.html

    November 25, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 5 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland registered 5 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Wednesday.

    A total of 6 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 335 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Tuesday, and 22 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    As of Tuesday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,469, with 4,634 fatalities.

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having ended completely.

    Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Cold-chain imported food products are all checked.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 305 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 6 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

    Reply
  50. Willie

    Washington state is getting buried in Covid cases now. We were doing well. We aren’t now. No state seems to be faring very well now. I expect another 250,000 dead by the time Biden is inaugurated and maybe a million dead by the time we see a widespread vaccine sometime next summer.

    This is the overriding issue of the day, and it has vast economic consequences. There’s the economic damage, of course. There’s the reduced productivity associated with dead and disabled people who were once highly productive. There’s the distortion of the economy that will take a while to unwind. This will make for interesting textbooks someday.

    Reply
  51. ltr

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/22/c_139534559.htm

    November 22, 2020

    Road out of poverty: China’s efforts show the way

    BEIJING — Mi Zhenhua skillfully makes USB cables in a poverty-relief factory in the Weilaba Zhuhai residential compound in southwest China’s Yunnan Province. She can make at least 2,000 yuan (305 U.S. dollars) from this business every month.

    Mi used to live in the remote Ziji Village in Yunnan’s Lushui City, where geological disasters like landslides are frequent.

    “I hated rainy days because I was scared of mudslides,” said Mi, 29. “The village was a five to six hour walk from the nearest town. Transportation was inconvenient.”

    Last year, thanks to China’s poverty alleviation efforts, her family moved into a beautiful house in the brand-new Weilaba Zhuhai residential compound, which houses more than 700 poor families from two townships in Lushui City. Her daughter also attends a kindergarten in the community.

    Local authorities opened a poverty-relief factory there, allowing people like Mi to find jobs to increase their income. Now, all poor residents of the community have shaken off poverty.

    “I am just so happy and content,” Mi said.

    Mi is not alone. On Nov. 14, authorities announced that Yunnan Province, which had the country’s largest remaining poor population at the end of last year, has eradicated absolute poverty.

    A majority of localities in China have cast off poverty as the country plans to eradicate absolute poverty by the end of this year in a bid to build a moderately prosperous society in all respects.

    On Saturday, authorities in northwest China’s Gansu Province announced that it had lifted all its 75 counties out of poverty.

    ROAD OUT OF POVERTY

    China has taken a variety of poverty-relief measures, including rural tourism, industries, relocation and better healthcare, to help people live better lives.

    In Xijiang, a Miao ethnic village tucked away in southwest China’s Guizhou Province, locals have wallowed in poverty for generations, cut off from the world by mountains that surround the area.

    However, as local authorities encouraged rural tourism, Hou Yanjiang, who used to be a migrant worker, started a rural restaurant, which now generates more than 5 million yuan in annual sales.

    In the mountainous city of Chishui in Guizhou Province, a rocky red surface known as the Danxia landform that covers more than two-thirds of the city stands out. For local farmers, the rocks used to be a stumbling block to planting crops. Then came a government initiative that encouraged growing dendrobium nobile, a valuable Chinese herbal medicine found in the rocks. Currently, dendrobium nobile covers more than 6,000 hectares in the city, helping about 16,000 poor residents increase their salaries.

    Relocation also proved to be an important step out of poverty. In the last five years, more than 9 million rural poor in China were moved out of inhospitable areas that mired generations of inhabitants in poverty.

    In northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Ma Guoquan used to live in a rural area with scarce water resources. In 2017, he moved into a 96-sq-meter house by the Yellow River.

    “With water from the Yellow River, irrigation became easy,” Ma said.

    Better healthcare also contributed to poverty relief.

    Some rural hospitals partnered with their metropolitan counterparts to offer quality medical services to rural residents.

    “Illness-induced poverty is one of the toughest problems in rural areas,” said Hu Yi, head of the public hospital in the county of Zhenxiong in Yunnan Province. “Now they don’t have to travel far to get treated, not even for serious illnesses.”

    These efforts have paid off, and countless rural people saw a significant improvement in their lives.

    The number of Chinese living in poverty dropped from 98.99 million to 5.51 million in the last seven years. The per capita net income of the poor rose from 4,124 yuan in 2016 to 9,057 yuan in 2019, an average annual growth of 30 percent….

    Reply
  52. pgl

    Trump placed John Lott at the Department of Justice as Senior Advisor for Research and Statistics?

    Gun Advocate, Author Of ‘More Guns, Less Crime,’ Gets Justice Department Job | Talking Points Memo

    I guess Judy Shelton will head the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Stephen Moore will run the Bureau of Economic Statistics, and Lawrence Kudlow will provide information on international trade for the Census Bureau.

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Yes, possibly the least respected living professional economist. And he may have gotten a civil service position so hard to dislodge.

      In today’s WaPo it is reported that with the new F-status for civil servants being imposed, Trump may attempt to purge a majority of staffers at the OMB and replace them with incompetent lackies of his. He is really doing huge amounts of damage as he goes out the door, so much it is getting hard to keep track of it all.

      Reply
      1. baffling

        i said a while back, trump will scorch the earth on the way out. he is a sore loser and has no concern for the consequences.

        Reply
  53. ltr

    Semi OT: speaking of China out of poverty…

    [ Directly relevant, since home renovation or construction and equipping are a focus in Chinese poverty alleviation. Poverty alleviation is remarkably detailed or household focused in China. ]

    Reply
  54. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 19 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.  Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries.  Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.

    November 24, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 801) *

    Brazil   ( 798)
    Argentina   ( 825)
    Colombia   ( 698)

    Mexico   ( 787)
    Peru   ( 1,076)
    Chile   ( 789)

    Ecuador   ( 747)
    Bolivia   ( 760)

    * Descending number of cases

    Reply

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