“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”

From the paper by Zhi WangShang-Jin WeiXinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu:

The United States imports intermediate inputs from China, helping downstream US firms to expand employment. Using a cross-regional reduced-form specification but differing from the existing literature, this paper (a) incorporates a supply chain perspective, (b) uses intermediate input imports rather than total imports in computing the downstream exposure, and (c) uses exporter-specific information to allocate imported inputs across US sectors. We find robust evidence that the total impact of trading with China is a positive boost to local employment and real wages. The most important factor is employment stimulation outside the manufacturing sector through the downstream channel. This overturns the received wisdom from the reduced-form literature and provides statistical support for a key mechanism hypothesized in general equilibrium spatial models.

Ungated version here. This is a slightly older paper (2018). A paper with related findings by Feenstra and Sasahara (2018) here, while ungated working paper version is here.

This is a reminder that import competition has direct impacts, but international trade allows firms access to lower cost inputs, and benefiting from comparative advantage. Separate from the question of net benefits is whether costs imposed on those negatively impacted outweigh those who gain, either in dollar or “util” terms.

47 thoughts on ““Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”

  1. pgl

    Oh my when Bruce Hall thought he was sending $100 to Trump’s campaign, he never realized that Trump would bilk him for $1000!

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-campaign-donors-say-campaign-tricked-them-repeat-contributions-1581112

    Yea – we know Trump steals money any way he can but I hope Bruce can still afford his daily dose of bleach as his state (Michigan) has a massive spike in new cases of the virus. Who knew Bruce’s neighbors were dumb enough to follow his advise.

    Reply
  2. pgl

    “We find robust evidence that the total impact of trading with China is a positive boost to local employment and real wages. The most important factor is employment stimulation outside the manufacturing sector through the downstream channel.”

    I could say that this undermines the recent claims from JohnH. But let’s be clear that we are talking about a specific aspect of the dumbest trade protection in my life time (Trump’s trade war). The correct message is that one has to look carefully at the specific form of trade protection (or movement to freer trade) before one jumps to ill informed statements about the effects of trade policy.

    The 2005 end of apparel quotas certainly shifted production of clothing away from the US to the Far East to cite one of my favorite examples. Of course this was a policy move that occurred after that 2000 agreement that JohnH thinks was the root of all evil.

    International trade issues are hard. People like Thomas Friedman do not get this but he is not an economist. Clearly JohnH is not an economist either.

    Reply
    1. JohnH

      Dean Baker: “ In the last decade we have gotten an acknowledgement from many in the economics profession that trade did have a large impact on the manufacturing economy and the regions that depended on these jobs. This was due in large part to the work of M.I.T. labor economist, David Autor and his colleagues.”
      https://rwer.wordpress.com/2021/04/02/free-trade-and-free-taxes-how-our-intellectuals-help-the-rich/#more-39673

      Also see: “Economists on the Run” https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/22/economists-globalization-trade-paul-krugman-china/

      I guess we’ll have to deal with duelling authoritative studies for a long time.

      But this still doesn’t how Krugman came to the outrageous assertion that union members would be better off after China PNTR.JohnH. Maybe losing one’s job and accepting lower wages make someone a better person?

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Did Krugman steal your girl friend or what? Your lying about what he has said has grown pathetic. Try actually reading some economics some day.

        Reply
      2. Barkley Rosser

        Yes, JohnH, not only Krugman, but the vast majority of economists did not foresee how damaging to manufacturing employment in the US what happened with China in the early noughts would be. As I have noted elsewhere, the only economists who forecast it would be bad were ones without any credibility because they had previously falsely forecast disastrous results from NAFTA and other earlier trade deals that failed to happen. Ross Perot did not get that “sucking sound” he forecast in 1992 (granted, not an economist).

        However, ex post the Autor et al paper has pretty much convinced everybody that indeed there was a lot of damage. I at least have said we should have had serious adjustment assistance available, but we did not and neither organized management nor organized labor in the US much supported it, in contrast to what we see in Nordic nations.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          “I at least have said we should have had serious adjustment assistance available”

          Krugman has said the same thing – many times.

          Reply
      3. Barkley Rosser

        BTW, JohnH, Dean Baker did foresee more damage from China entering WTO and normalizing trade relations with US than most economists did, including Krugman, who as pgl notes did foresee some negative impacts. But even Dean did not foresee the scale of what would happen.

        Reply
  3. pgl

    This is an interesting paper that I will more carefully read later but let me select one small portion:

    “Let us start with a comparison with the previous attempt to incorporate supply chain channels, namely Acemoglu et al. (2015). Methodologically, our paper differs from theirs in two ways. First, they do not separate intermediate goods from final goods in computing downstream exposure to China trade. Since the downstream effect is about how input costs are affected by imported Chinese inputs, that distinction is important.”

    If we are talking about US firms producing washing machines or cars using components made in China, their supply chain analysis is crucial. But if we are talking about Nike running shoes (thanks Amazon for today’s delivery as my old running shoes need to be retired) Chinese workers are making the final product even as the value of the Nike designs and advertising somehow ended up in Bermuda.

    Reply
  4. Barkley Rosser

    The emphasis in this paper on imported intermediate goods highlights one of the ways Trump really botched his protectionist effort. Several of the major industries he targeted for protectionism, such as steel and aluminum, were intermediate goods, which ended up harming those “downstream” industries that use them as their prices rose, thus raising the costs to those industries.

    If one is going to play the protectionist card one needs to focus on final stage goods, like autos, rather then intermediate good inputs to those final goods, like steel, and even then one may not get a net jobs gain. But it will be more likely than attempting to protect those intermediate good sectors.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Trump’s trade policy is what one gets when economic advice comes from the likes of Wilbur Ross and Lawrence Kudlow.

      Reply
  5. Moses Herzog

    As a guy who made mostly Cs, Ds, and yes, Fs, in my middle school and high school science classes, why have I been saying this for months now, and the CDC acts as if it has just now made a “new discovery”??
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/end-the-hygiene-theater-cdc-says-173440864.html
    The surface contaminant thing has been a laughing joke similar to the pinhead babblings about the Covid-19 originating in a Chinese Science Research Lab. The CDC could have saved public schools and college campuses wasting God knows how much money and time (along with even more supermarket supply shortages) chasing after the boogeyman germ on children’s and university student work desks, and lent themselves more credibility throughout the entire process, instead of opening themselves up to the type of public scorn that should be specially reserved for the likes of Deborah Birx.

    Reply
    1. Ivan

      The article mentions that it’s only a few months ago that we got solid evidence for how rare fomites transmission has been – WITH the current state of “cleanliness”. An unexpected benefit of that cleanliness has been an almost non-existent flue season. In other words we do not know what would happen if people went back to sneezing into their hands and touching doorhandles, stopped washing their hands, etc. We know the virus can survive (for a limited time) on surfaces. So there is biological basis for expecting fomite transmission. The only question was to what extend the average behavior (hygiene) would realize that potential.

      The original presumption of both aerosol and fomite transmission was based on observations from similar viruses. That is a good scientific approach – when not doing anything or waiting (months to years) until we have rock solid evidence – is not an option. It is also a good scientific approach to revise opinions as new studies and evidence is developed (although lay people seem to consider that “weak”). You may blame the CDC for being a few months behind the scientific reports. However, I think it is a good thing that they take a little extra time to evaluate ALL the studies and evidence before they revise guidelines. A little extra precautions on cleaning is not going to kill anybody (or give them the flue).

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Ivan
        “An unexpected benefit of that cleanliness has been an almost non-existent flue season.”

        This is ANOTHER asinine statement. That, with nearly 100% certainty, had next to nothing to do with “cleanliness”. It was most likely due to social distancing and masks. That and a public awareness campaign on getting shots for the flue, which they stressed could be even more critical if people in certain age segments were hit by both the flu and Covid-19 at a similar time. False story lines “surface contamination is a major threat” create more problems, they don’t solve them.

        You’ll remember, it wasn’t terribly long ago, CDC officials and Fauci were telling people that if you weren’t a frontline health worker, wearing a mask wasn’t beneficial. You’ll excuse me if I don’t bow down at the CDC officials’ feet.
        https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-fauci-outdated-video-masks/fact-checkoutdated-video-of-fauci-saying-theres-no-reason-to-be-walking-around-with-a-mask-idUSKBN26T2TR

        Reply
      2. Moses Herzog

        It’s interesting to note, back in May 2020, we were NEVER told whether Fauci was wearing a mask or not during his and Redfield’s exposure to the Covid-19 virus.
        https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/dr-fauci-quarantines-following-eruption-of-white-house-coronavirus-cases

        I guess, if Fauci is the living saint some of you think he is (I put him roughly 1/4 step above Birx, a person I basically disdain) someday he will share with us if during his “limited” and “low risk” exposure to the Covid-19 virus if he was wearing a mask. I’ll tell you, these people are usually more than eager to share those informational details when it makes them look good, so the absence of statements regarding whether Fauci was wearing a mask or not when exposed back in May, might tell us volumes about Saint Fauci. He can tell us “I was saving masks for the frontline health workers”. Great. Fauci’s job is to protect health workers and hospitals who were told for decades these things could happen and could back inventory masks and FAILED to back inventory masks. Guess what?? I had N-95 masks in my house, and my F-ing job was to protect my family. And any intelligent being would do the same. Not call down to my local school to see if they were putting cleanser on inanimate objects which posed next to no threat at all.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Yes, Moses, Fauci did say exactly that: at that crucial time before the pandemic took off big time in early March there was a major mask shortage and he was indeed worried that a rush on masks that would zap frontline health workers. He fessed up on that long ago. It was a hard call. Just what is your point?

          This ranting against Fauci is really seriously off the wall. Sheesh.

          Reply
          1. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, Mosrs, almost every night Sean Hannity and other Fox News bigwigs are playing and replaying over and over Fauci’s statement on masks from March 8 last year, long since admitted to be misleading and apologized for by Fauci, with them also playing his Feb. 29 statement in which he said OK to go around normally in public “for now,” with them somehow not noticing that “for now,” which he changed later.

            Is this you again spouting Fox News propaganda here? You have done it in the past. But doing it now against Fauci is really egregious. Are you now going to bring back your charges that both Biden and Pelosi are s—-e and argue that with them having Fauci working for them the US effort against the pandemic has fallen on its face and become completely dysfunctional? Maybe you will start reminding us of Sean Hannity’s nearly nightly effort to claim that Biden is “mentally challenged” by showing clips of him stuttering, something he has done all his life?

          2. Moses Herzog

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/13/coronavirus-trump-retweets-call-dr-anthony-faucis-firing/2981147001/

            Anthony Fauci, the health care policy expert under fire from allies of President Donald Trump, said Monday he used a “poor choice of words” when he suggested lives could have been saved had the Trump administration put in place coronavirus restrictions earlier in the year.

            “Hypothetical questions sometimes can get you into some difficulty,” Fauci said during a unique statement delivered amid reports that Trump was thinking of firing him.

            Fauci goes on……
            Anthony Fauci, the health care policy expert under fire from allies of President Donald Trump, said Monday he used a “poor choice of words” when he suggested lives could have been saved had the Trump administration put in place coronavirus restrictions earlier in the year.

            “Hypothetical questions sometimes can get you into some difficulty,” Fauci said during a unique statement delivered amid reports that Trump was thinking of firing him.

            And here, another gem:
            Fauci, the long-time director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, denied that Trump forced him to make the statement. He told reporters, “everything I do is voluntary. Please. Don’t even imply that.”

            And here more:
            Critics called the performance little more than an exercise in “propaganda.”

            “How does Fauci feel right now?” tweeted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “Manipulated? Used?”

            I know that for Barkley Junior, at this “stage of life” it’s hard for him to remember back to March-April of 2020. Fortunately, I am not burdened by an early phase of dementia.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Sorry, Moses, nobody here is going to support your following Fox News and GOPs to smear Fauci. A lot was said a year ago as things developed. He still looks better than most. You want to invoke scientists, real ones. Where do they stand on Fauci. They are all for him.

            I happen to personally know his boss, NIH chief Francis Collins (heck, I knew his late parents, all that depreciated social capital of mine). Everybody also respects Collins, and he supports Fauci big time. Want to go after Collins too? Oh, Fox News is not dumping on him yet.

            If you keep this stuff up, Moses, you are not going to look any better than back when you spouted Trump/Fox News smears against Elizabeth Warren, which was what got you all messed up with those silly probability distribution arguments you made that you managed to remind us of by dragging up Quora. Really, you have a history of repeating GOP smears against admirable people, and this stuff you are trrying on Fauci is only going to put you in a moral and intellectual toilet in the eyes of pretty much everybody here, although maybe CoRev or Bruce Hall or somebody might stand up for you on this. They watch a lot of Fox News.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      Regarding “pinhead babblings” about Chinese science labs, the head of the WHO has just said that the report that was issued after the recent visit insufficiently studied that possibility, which was pretty obvious to anybody paying attention. We do not know the origin and we probably never will, but there are several ways a lab could be involved from bringing in an animal from the wild that has it (and it has now come out that the target lab in Wuhan probably was bringing in bats despite some there saying the were not) to having somebody there get in the wild but come back to the lab from where it spread to it accidentally developing in an animal in the lab to eing the result of gain of function research, which has certainly been done in Chinese labs, although unclear about the one in Wuhan. But that recent WHO group had some people who visited that lab for about three hours with none of those visiting apparently being real experts in the field.

      Sorry, pinhead is you, Moses.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        Be careful, the Covid-19 virus is there on your JMU work desk waiting to get you [edited MDC]. “It came from a Lab” run by scientist Boris Wang Zhong Badenov, and he’s out to get you. I read it all on Quora.

        Reply
          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I hope you’re right. Though I think some actual scientists (not those portraying one in a MAGA televised conference) might argue with you on that. There has been more than one elderly person who has died after being vaccinated. Or did your science degree from Quora Online University say otherwise??
            https://www.doh.wa.gov/Newsroom/Articles/ID/2720/Cases-of-COVID-19-vaccine-breakthrough-confirmed-in-Washington-state

            If you are over age 80 the odds of this happening rise. But be careful of your desk Junior, your desk surface at JMU is going to get you. And don’t let your grandkids or adult children wear a mask you purchased yourself if your local hospital has a shortage on PPE during a pandemic. Dr. Fauci says that’s wrong. And by law, you cannot disagree with Dr. Fauci. He was such a good little MAGA boy.
            Dr. Fauci discussing donald trump in March of 2020:
            “He goes his own way. He has his own style. But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say,” he continued, noting that he doesn’t disagree with Trump on the “substance.”

            Wow, so can “Barkley Junior The Science Guy” remind me the exact difference here between Fauci and Birx?? I’m having trouble making it out in that direct and verbatim quote from Fauci.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Pathetic.

            The latest main person to say there needs to be more research about the possible lab origin of the coronavirus is the Director of the WHO, supposedly somebody under the control of the PRC. He is certainly not “portraying [a scientist] in a MAGA televised conference.” Did you not see this, Moses? How far out of touch with reality are you? Have you been spilling cheap wine when this has been pointed out. Over the top partisanized loser.

            I am not disagreeing with the desk matter. If you want to make more fun on that you will simply look not intelligent, which you are already doing.

            Your bringing up Quora, something I cited exactly once a long time ago and otherwise never look at is hilarious. That citation was of a matter that was completely correct and regarding which you made a complete fool of yourself, a matter regarding probability distributions of genes. I would think you would prefer not to remind people of just how stupid and ignorant you are, although you periodically drag it back out as if it somehow shows how smart you are. Wrong. It does exactly the opposite.

            As for continuing to smear Fauci, I suggest you are really making people view you as simply awful with this, if they did not already do so. So,, Moses, it will not surprise me if you keep this up, having seen exactly what you are.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I believe you stated the distribution of Native American genes in whites (or European Americans) on the North American continent was “skewed”, a word, which was never even used in the paper you yourself cited which was what made it so funny. Strangely no expert on this topic has supported your assertion. Baffling was happy to take up your cause though, so I enjoyed that one nearly as well as your 30% wrong prediction on 2nd quarter 2020 GDP. Your “V” prediction on the recovery shape was hilarious as well, and I am happy to pull up your past quotes on that as well if you are once again hard up for attention tonight. I’d prefer if you just got yourself a blow-up doll and save me the time of re-posting these 50+ times to verify the true procession of events. Let’s go over the relevant portion of the paper you quoted from Quora, that you falsely stated said the Native American admixture in whites was “skewed” shall we??

            “Another line of evidence supporting our estimates of non-European ancestry in European Americans in the US is that we observe a substantially lower occurrence of Native American and African ancestry in individuals who self-report four grandparents born in the same European country. The inferred segments of African and Native American are uniformly distributed across the genome. Although we expect that some of the inferred ancestry might arise from difficulties in assigning ancestry in complex regions of the genome, only a small fraction of the estimated African and Native American ancestry in European Americans can be explained through such biases and is not expected to give rise to any substantial (more than 1%) ancestry from any population.”

            The quote I lift verbatim is from the bottom of page 49 and continuing on to the top of page 50 of this journal:
            The American Journal of Human Genetics 96, 37–53, January 8, 2015

            Sadly for you, you thought I was the same as you, and would just take your word on what was in the research paper (the obvious reason you didn’t quote it directly), which is what any university professor worth his salt would do, and thought I would just click on your sad little Quora link without reading the research paper itself. Mortifying as that must have been for you to realize when I quoted the paper itself that you hadn’t taken the time to read, that was not the case.

          4. Barkley Rosser

            Oh my heavens! You are attempting to relitigate something where you utterly and totally fell flat on your fact completely humiliating yourself, although you kept dragging it back up over and over only to have yourself fall back on your face yet again and again, and here you go again, after a long time. How much have you been drinking this evening?

            It has been awhile, but for the umpteen millionth time, a distribution over a POPULATION is not a distribution over a GENOME.

            I disapprove of capping words like that, but given how totally out of it you seem to be, Moses, I think I need to do it. So, again, a POPULATION is not the same thing as a GENOME.

            Got it?

    3. Barkley Rosser

      I guess I have to ask, Moses. Why are you on the one hand apparently bragging about getting low grades in science courses when you were in school but now very confidently making all kinds of very definite statements on several scientific topics now, most of which look to be not so definitely known at all? Of course this is a well-known syndrome: people who know nothing at all about what they are talking about making super definite statements about those things and making highly insulting statements about the knowledge and intelligence of those who disagree with the so very definite statements. Just what we might expect from somebody with a record of getting Cs, Ds, and Fs in science classes back when they were in middle school.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        “Why are you on the one hand apparently bragging about getting low grades in science courses when you were in school but now very confidently making all kinds of very definite statements on several scientific topics now”

        Well Moses has been reading all those scientific contributions from Bruce Hall and CoRev!

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          @ pgl
          One thing I can say, I don’t just run to some blog like a child running to its mother to repeat whatever left-leaning political argument is being made in the most recent 12 hour news cycle, thinking I am saying something insightful. That is what people who have made a lifetime habit of being spoon-fed do. That is what someone who literally hero worships Andrew Cuomo for months on end does. I don’t/didn’t hero-worship Andrew Cuomo like you did for a year plus, and neither will I hero-worship Fauci, who in order to keep his job made a very clear effort to rationalize and normalize donald trump’s efforts at press conferences. Fauci’s efforts in praise for donald trump come out clean in the wash very easily for those who are spoon-fed their own thoughts. I however prefer to think for myself. You might turn off Hillary Clinton’s latest book selling tour or the latest three-card monte lie press conference from Andrew Cuomo and learn something on your own.

          Reply
  6. Moses Herzog

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1379138117098217473

    One gets the feeling that John Gizzi (or should it be John Jizz-ie??) will be every other day providing us all with comedy relief.

    If anyone wonders how and why the sammys and Bruce Halls of our little Kumbaya camp here end up sounding as dumb as they do, remember that this is very much boilerplate type material for AM radio band “conservative”/Republican talk shows, which are still listened to by millions.

    Reply
  7. pgl

    Following up on how to pay for infrastructure – two things:

    First this analysis of profit shifting by multinationals where the claim is that they move $1 trillion in income to tax havens:

    https://www.ictd.ac/publication/profit-shifting-multinational-corporations-worldwide/

    And apparently the IMF is recommending a surtax on excess profits. Under Trump’s tax cut for the rich, things like FDII tax excess profits at a very low rate. FDII needs to be repealed. But we also need to do a better job at enforcing the transfer pricing rules.

    Reply
  8. ltr

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ohSv

    January 30, 2018

    (Exports of non-agricultural goods minus Imports of non-petroleum goods as a share of Gross Domestic Product) and Manufacturing employment as a share of total employment, 1968-2021

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ohM2

    January 30, 2018

    (Exports of non-agricultural goods minus Imports of non-petroleum goods as a share of Gross Domestic Product) and Manufacturing employment as a share of total employment, 1980-2021

    Reply
  9. ltr

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CUNG

    January 30, 2018

    (Exports of non-agricultural goods minus Imports of non-petroleum goods as a share of Gross Domestic Product) and Manufacturing employment as a share of total employment, 1971-2021

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ohM3

    January 30, 2018

    (Exports of non-agricultural goods minus Imports of non-petroleum goods as a share of Gross Domestic Product) and Manufacturing employment as a share of total employment, 1988-2021

    [ The decline in the relative importance of manufacturing employment in the United States, would not appear to be related to trading with China. ]

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      In other news…… it appears the troubles for someone’s personal hero of 2020 just keep getting worse. But there is, uh, “good news” I guess (???) for non-critical thinkers around the Brooklyn area of New York. It appears that 2/3rds of liberal New Yorkers have now killed off the #MeToo movement. Take a bow liberal New Yorkers:
      And yet, it is far from clear that any of this will bring down Unaccountable Andy. Recent polls show that Cuomo’s constituents largely still have his back: Half of New York’s voters want him to stay in office, while smaller shares say it’s time for him to go. Democrats are even more supportive, with roughly two-thirds saying he shouldn’t resign.”

      The curiosities and contradictions in a “sophisticated” (and “tough”) New Yorker’s mind are further itemized:
      “When things go bad, there is always some sleight of hand to distract us. By no possible measure has New York’s response to the pandemic been a good one. The state has suffered the second-highest rate of Covid deaths in the country. Yet Cuomo’s daily news briefings on the virus last year resulted in nationwide accolades, along with a book contract and an Emmy Award. (‘The first Emmy ever for controlling the narrative,’ as longtime Cuomo critic John Kaehny, the executive director of the public watchdog group Reinvent Albany, put it to me.) ‘Why We Are Crushing on Andrew Cuomo Right Now,’ read a headline in Vogue last March. ‘Help, I Think I’m In Love With Andrew Cuomo???’ a Jezebel writer confessed.”

      Wait, is pgl doing bylines at “Jezebel” website now??

      My favorite part of this “Politico” column, is the part that reads almost like an unauthorized biography of our dearly beloved commenter “pgl”:
      “The uncomfortable question for liberals is: When does this become Trumpism — albeit on a much less threatening scale? When do progressive New Yorkers admit that Cuomo is a man from whom many of them will accept any level of sexual harassment and bullying, any amount of corruption, any amount of incompetence, because they like his public persona? How exactly does this differ from Trump worship?”

      Hmmmm, I guess only those “sophisticated” New Yorkers jogging in the Brooklyn area can answer that last question.
      https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/20/why-is-andrew-cuomo-holding-on-blame-new-yorks-politics-of-masochism-477220

      Reply
      1. pgl

        If you laid off the excessive wine consumption – you might have noticed I turned on Randy Andy a long time ago.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          @ pgl
          After over a year of praising Andrew Cuomo like he was a war hero, and telling everyone on this blog that criticizing Andrew Cuomo was equivalent to supporting donald trump, you think “Oh, I changed my stance on that” is an answer. Judging from your lame backfire shot at admitting you held a blatantly wrong stance on something, it’s not hard to discern why you and Barkley Junior relate to each other so well. You were running around the blog for months saying that if the intentionally low/hidden count in nursing home deaths was discussed here that any such person supported donald trump. Wow, only Barkley Junior can match your level of “C-L-A-S-S”. Real classy. New York classy I guess. New York “tough” at accepting criticism as well.

          Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Your support will certainly sway the crucial decisionmakers on this, Moses, for the record, especially given your past record of scientific achievement and knowledge.

      Reply
      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Junior
        I thought the Politico article was more related to American jobs and international trade than science. It appears your reading comprehension hasn’t improved much since your posting Quora links which don’t support your arguments. Your students have tutored you about SAAR now, since your error on 2nd Quarter GDP, yes?? It might be embarrassing for a “mathematical economist” to make a 30% off forecast on quarterly GDP.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          I cited Quora exactly once on a completely accurate article that to this day you seem unable to comprehend, somehow still thinking that probability distributions over genomes are the same thing as probability distributions over populations. All of that to repeat Trump/Fox News smears against Elizabeth Warren. Sure, the percentage of Native American ancestry among European Americans in Brighton Beach is the same as among them in Oklahoma. Gag.

          But now you claim I have provided “links” to Quora. You are getting even further out of touch with reality. I find your obsession with Quora to be utterly bizarre, but then no one should be surprised at anything coming from somebody who thinks that denouncing Dr. Anthony Fauci is a good thing to do and in emboldened letters to boot, not to mention continuing to claim that people like Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden are somehow mentally deficient. Sheesh.

          Oh, and what was that shape you forecast about the second and third quarter GDP growth patterns last year that you made to a secret friend that could never be revealed and never has been, if you are going to drag all that so yesterday stuff up?

          Reply
  10. Moses Herzog

    I hesitate to put things like this up, because I think it’s good to share things that help inform people, but also sometimes these things can “fan flames”. I guess for the moment I’ll take a half-leap of faith in the better part of human nature and share this for people interested:
    https://twitter.com/SCS_PI

    Unless there’s some U.S. Navy based websites this seems to be one of the better ones:

    Reply
  11. Moses Herzog

    Still reading these old NYTs strewn around the house. I tell you, no matter how you slice it or what angle you look at it from, human beings are a strange lot. Roughly 1 in 3 Asian Americans voted for donald trump in 2020. Now how in the hell does one rectify that to the reality of how he treats them?? I would love to hear any Asian person’s thoughts on that one. Also according to this article, Asian Americans shifted to the right between 2016 and 2020.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/us/politics/asian-american-voters.html

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      BTW, upon reviewing this comment, there’s a term I can’t think of at the moment, Menzie probably knows the word I can’t find in my brain at the moment, but I am aware not all Asians hold the same views or should be expected to. I am just saying that when one a person is so vehemently pro policies that hurt Asians, how could anyone vote for the man?? But then my same view holds for white trash who vote for the bastard, so…… I wanted to explain my thinking more as to how my statement might have been viewed. I often think of Asians as almost being more pro-education and pro-knowledge than the “average American” now, so then when Asians vote this way (I am speaking as a white dude) it really kind of seems more shocking Asians would vote for him in my own mind’s thoughts.

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  12. Moses Herzog

    Lots of little gems in this old Jan 3 NYT. I just read the obituary of Fou Ts’ong ( 傅聰 ). Covid-19 got him at age 86. If my simple math isn’t failing me, he would have been 72 when he gave this performance. Defected to England in 1958. His father (Fu Lei) translated French novels to Chinese, until he and his wife committed suicide related to political upheaval. Fou Ts’ong would have given this performance around the age of 72:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GiDV0nj-KQ

    Pretty good stuff. Would be better with a drink though, heh.

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