From today’s release:
Figure 1: Month on month annualized headline CPI inflation (blue), Bloomberg consensus of 8/9/2022 (blue square) and year on year inflation (pink), and Bloomberg consensus (red triangle). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, and NBER.
Figure 2: Month on month annualized core CPI inflation (blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue square) and year on year inflation (pink), and Bloomberg consensus (red triangle). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, and NBER.
The realized values of inflation — both core and headline — were below the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasts.
Source: Cleveland Fed, accessed 8/10/2022.
Bloomberg notes the drop in headline driven by gasoline. More discussion at CEA.
Inflation as measured by headline CPI increased 0.0 percent month-over-month in July, well below its elevated June monthly rate of 1.3 percent. Monthly core inflation in July fell to 0.3 percent. – CEA
Now I get Bruce Hall has been telling us that inflation would be higher than 9%. Core inflation is down but Bruce Hall does not care about core inflation. Oh wait – headline inflation was zero last month. Of course Bruce Hall has a Nobel Prize in moving the goal posts and he has decided this is not good enough. Good enough would be for the CPI to return to its 1910 level. MAGA!
Anyone want to phone up Bruce Hall and CoRev so we can figure out how this July inflation number means it’s the end of the world?? BTW, somebody invoked the Fifth Amendment today. You only get one guess who.
https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/2022/07/thats-fake-news/
It appears some orange colored ape views himself as guilty. Imagine that.
Sorry for the wrong link. computer acting slightly funny this morning. I looked up after seeing it was the wrong link and I swear to God That Saturday Evening Post link was inside the browser box on top of the Yahoo story. Very weird.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-might-finally-be-forced-to-admit-how-much-hes-really-worth-180132047.html
“I once asked, ‘If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?’ Now I know the answer to that question. When your family, your company, and all of the people in your orbit have become the targets of an unfounded, politically motivated Witch Hunt supported by lawyers, prosecutors, and the Fake News Media, you have no choice,” he wrote in a statement posted on his social media site, Truth Social.
Trump did ask that question in the past. The correct answer is “when one is a mob boss guilty of tax evasion, sedition, and treason”. MAGA!
Press the large white play button after the link jump:
https://www.needtoimpeach.com/corruption/trump-fifth-amendment-michael-cohen/
After listening to him, I need a fifth of something like bourbon. Ugh!
And that Trump statement has no grounding in logic.
If indeed, “your family, your company, and all of the people in your orbit have become the targets of an unfounded, politically motivated Witch Hunt supported by lawyers, prosecutors, and the Fake News Media” – then the last thing you would want to do is take the fifth and say nothing. If the facts are on your side then the last thing you would want to do is to hide the facts. Remember, Trump can hire an army of lawyers to defend himself. It is not the same as if one of his minions had the Feds cracking down on them – he is a billionaire. If he is hiding something its not his innocence.
“Anyone want to phone up Bruce Hall and CoRev so we can figure out how this July inflation number means it’s the end of the world?”
How long will it take for Princeton Steve to blast BLS for putting out politically motivated news? My bet is sometime just before dinner.
cpi -w is 9.1%
good for the sea cola!
He must be so disappointed. No recession and inflation is dropping. No surprise, really, except to him and people like him.
Good news. Hope it continues and the Fed doesn’t have to hike hard next time around. But for sure they’re keeping an eye on wages/job growth.
If inflation continues downward, I expect/hope Biden’s numbers to recover a bit. The man says and does and signs popular stuff – pretty sure the only thing keeping his popularity so low is inflation. Falling off bikes is not enough.
Its more cynical than that. Faux news will lie and misinterpret all data and stories to make it sounds like even the biggest successes are failures. The real news media don’t want to seem “biased” so they under-report the good news and focus on the bad. The killing of the mastermind of 9/11 is a one day story with no follow up. The incredibly successful withdrawal from Afghanistan (with just one incident and 12 dead US soldiers) becomes a story of horrible mistakes for the next year. The right wing masterminds know their average American dumb ass and how to play him.
Faux Noise viewers are mostly a write-off anyway. Faux will spin things to benefit the Republican Party no matter what happens. They are the hemorrhoids of the media world. You just have to deal with the pain they inflict
I just don’t buy that this is about Fox News. As Willie says, anyone who takes that stuff seriously is a write-off.
Inflation is a real problem for most people, especially people who don’t spend much on big-ticket luxuries (that’s almost everyone).
Companies who sell big-ticket luxuries? They’re doing great.
I absolutely would not downplay the political impact of inflation. I think this is a big lesson for Democrats going forward. D’s need to stop entertaining MMT, socialists and those who think fighting inflation is a corporation-y conspiracy. They’re idiots, and their ideas are dangerous. Not in that order.
While it is a positive development that the rate of price increases is decreasing, the absolute level is still significant year/year and from the beginning of 2021.
This is most informative if you click on the “Show Table” link below the image.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category.htm
Depending on income and lifestyle, one can be more or less impacted. People have become accustomed to higher gasoline costs and are substituting items to control food costs, but it should be interesting to see what happens this winter with the price of natural gas so high. Not everyone will qualify for low income energy assistance, but they will notice the smaller balance in their checking accounts.
• https://www.collins.senate.gov/newsroom/with-home-heating-bills-forecasted-to-surge-this-winter-collins-golden-lead-56-colleagues-to-urge-emergency-supplemental-funding-for-liheap
• https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/table_03.pdf
You have been called out again (see new post). Come on dude – go down to the community college and take a basic course in economics as you continue to embarrass your own family.
“This is most informative if you click on the “Show Table” link below the image”
Could you PLEASE starting READING your own links? Not seasonally adjusted. And it is clearly labeled a 12-month change. Prices over the past month FELL.
Now I thought no one could be this STUPID. But you proved me wrong!
Bruce, when are you going to learn it’s not 1955 anymore??~~and we’re no longer going back to the America you fantasize about. What you really want underneath all these other false arguments you make, similar to BlueStatesResidentKopits, is a segregated world where when you walk out onto your driveway to get into your car, you don’t have to look diagonally across the street and see a Black man 15 yards away looking back at you. That’s what all your nonsense is about.
Bruce Hall links to something from Senator Collins before he actually read the first paragraph:
As the price of home heating oil hovers at a record high, U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) and Representative Jared Golden (D-ME) are leading a bipartisan, bicameral push to increase funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which helps over 5.3 million households nationwide afford their energy bills.
That is a good proposal. Of course the MAGA crowd and Mitch McConnell will oppose this. And Bruce Hall will lead the opposition calling this wasteful socialist spending. MAGA.
Sure and if we compare prices back in 964 AD to today they have increased a million fold. Inflation is defined by a delta and it actually is really bad when that is negative. But I guess that if you no longer can claim the world is ending due to inflation, you can shift focus to another parameter that is easier to defend as “proof’ of your contention that the sky is falling. Problem is that your audience is not a bunch of dumb-bum Faux minions – so they can pretty much all see right through your lame rhetorical tricks.
It’s also entertaining to see that Eric trump thinks because his father used the Justice Department in illegal ways to bully people and hide his own crimes, Eric trump now thinks that’s how all presidents do it. I guess if you are trapped inside your father’s amoral orbit, you start to think that’s how things are handled everywhere:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eric-trumps-accidental-confession-father-085759577.html
“This actually may be a confession that Donald Trump attempted to wield power over the Department of Justice in inappropriate ways. Eric is making things a whole lot worse for his family every time he opens his mouth.”
I have always thought Eric was the retarded child.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/09/opinion/biden-boom-recession-inflation.html
August 9, 2022
Was there a Biden boom?
By Paul Krugman
Two weeks ago, I wrote a newsletter * that I foolishly considered somewhat anodyne, not likely to get much reaction. It seemed probable that the initial estimate for G.D.P. growth in the second quarter would be negative and that many people would declare that this meant the United States was in a recession. So I spent some time pedantically explaining why we don’t actually use “two negative quarters” to define recessions and why, given other data, America probably wasn’t in one.
Silly me. I immediately received the biggest wave of hate mail I’ve gotten since the Iraq War, although it tapered off as many other economists and institutions declared that we weren’t in recession — not yet, anyway — and it pretty much vanished after Friday’s monster jobs report.
But absence of a recession aside, one question I get asked is what happened to the “Biden boom” I — and many other economists — predicted?
And the answer is, it happened! But Americans aren’t feeling it, and it’s worth asking why.
So, about that boom. Here’s a chart of jobs gained since Inauguration Day under Joe Biden and the Former Guy:
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/09/opinion/krugman090822_1/krugman090822_1-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp
Yes, there was a Biden boom….
* https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opinion/recession-gdp-economy-nber.html
Maybe Krugman missed this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-american-workers-are-taking-on-second-jobs/
Dude – people working 2 jobs is an age old story. Well it wasn’t during that 2020 disaster as firms were not hiring – thanks to your boy Trump. Now be a good boy and go back and read what Krugman wrote, He gets that the labor market is strong. I guess you don’t as Kelly Anne is still lying to her little pet poodle.
ltr provided a graph of multiple job employees and they are quite low by historical standard. Another blatant lie from Bruce Hall exposed by basic research.
“So I spent some time pedantically explaining why we don’t actually use “two negative quarters” to define recessions and why, given other data, America probably wasn’t in one. Silly me. I immediately received the biggest wave of hate mail I’ve gotten since the Iraq War”
I wonder how much of that hate mail came from Princeton Steve.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MN2G
January 15, 2018
Consumer Price Index for Food and Energy, 2017-2020
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MN3g
January 15, 2018
Consumer Price Index for Food and Energy, 2017-2022
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Fn2j
January 15, 2018
Consumer Price Index for Rent and Owners’ Equivalent Rent, 2017-2022
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=MO8n
January 15, 2018
Consumer Price Index for Rent and Owners’ Equivalent Rent, 2017-2022
(Indexed to 2017)
Another heartwarming story of family values by a Republican candidate:
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-election-2022-georgia-senate-herschel-walker-ad-20220809-z3xptizhr5ezvbocl34deqvcoe-story.html
Well Herschel did tell us Cain killed Able so why not kill his own wife? MAGA!
https://english.news.cn/20220810/656bdd89581c4bf2848e3ecc3a747117/c.html
August 10, 2022
China’s consumer prices increase mildly, factory inflation eases
BEIJING — China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year on year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Wednesday.
Non-food prices rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, easing from the 2.5-percent rise in June, the NBS data showed.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, gained 0.8 percent year on year in July, lower than the 1 percent increase in June.
On a monthly basis, the CPI inched up 0.5 percent due to rising pork and fresh vegetable prices, as well as seasonal factors, said Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician with the NBS.
Food prices went up 3 percent from the previous month, driving up the monthly consumer inflation by about 0.53 percentage points, according to the data.
Specifically, the price of pork, a staple meat in China, increased 25.6 percent month-on-month in July, partly due to the reluctance of some pork farmers to sell, while consumer demand recovered, said Dong.
Chen Guanghua, an official with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a press conference in July that there would not be a “sustained and sharp increase” in hog prices as hog production is sufficient.
In July, the price of fresh vegetables rose 10.3 percent month on month due to continuous high temperatures in many regions of the country, while the price of fresh fruit dropped by 3.8 percent because of increasing market supply.
Non-food prices declined 0.1 percent month on month, dragging the CPI down by 0.07 percentage points. Due to declining international oil prices, China’s gasoline and diesel prices fell 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively….
Ever shared a bad news story about China? Do those exist? Bad news is a normal thing in democracies, I don’t know if you know.
So, noisy estimates of noise?
rsm, oh shush. it’s noisy estimates of adjusted noise?