Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision

Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment as reported (bold black), Bloomberg consensus for August (pink triangle), CES preliminary benchmark revision for March (red square), implied revision (teal), in 000’s s.a., on log scale). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The benchmarking process is described somewhat in this post. The previous year (from April 2021 to March 2022) will have the divergence “wedged in” so as to match in March 2022.

Private nonfarm payroll was revised up by 0.4%, big revisions up to transportation & warehousing (+2.3%) and information (+2.2%), while big negative downward revisions were made to mining & logging (-3.6%) and retail (-2.1%).

How does the aggregate NFP series change the picture?

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment as reported (bold black), Bloomberg consensus for August (pink triangle), implied revision (teal), civilian employment adjusted to conform to NFP concept (chartreuse), in 000’s s.a., on log scale). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The benchmark revision further buttresses the view that no slowdown occurred in labor markets during H1, and further erodes the argument for a recession — defined as a broad, sustained, reduction in economic activity — occurred during the first half of the year.

 

56 thoughts on “Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision

      1. pgl

        https://marketrealist.com/economy-and-politics/ppp-loan-forgiveness-congress/

        Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of 13 Republican Congress members who had PPP loans forgiven
        According to the Center for American Progress (CAP) Action, a left-leaning lobby group, Greene is one of 13 Republican members of Congress who owns or partially owns a business that received a PPP loan that the Small Business Administration (SBA) ultimately forgave. Greene’s loan was reportedly worth $180,000.

        The announcement comes after the House Judiciary GOP tweeted in response to Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, “If you take out a loan, you pay it back. Period.” While the GOP will likely challenge Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan in court, the juxtaposition remains. Other Republican members of Congress who fall in this camp include:

        Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) with a $476,000 loan

        Rep. Greg Pence (R-Indiana) for $79,441

        Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Florida) for $2.8 million

        Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Oklahoma) for $1.07 million

        Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) for $1.43 million

        Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Kentucky) for $4.3 million

        Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina) for $306,520

        Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pennsylvania) for $974,100

        Rep. Vicki Hartzler (R-Missouri) for $451,200

        Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Oklahoma) for $988,700

        Rep. Carol Miller (R-West Virginia) for $3.1 million

        1. Moses Herzog

          Zero problems with hypocrisy, and zero self-awareness. Nothing new from the Republicans. Republican Markwayne Mullin can’t go five seconds without insulting the federal government but he’s got both of those beggar thy neighbor hands outstretched and cupped upward when he can get that free money. Bastard’s so greedy he insisted his mother give him two first names. Maybe it was a sign.

    1. pgl

      “Twitter users saw irony in the House Judiciary Committee Republicans’ post, and mentioned both GOP representatives and former President Donald Trump, who reportedly haven’t paid back their debts. “Orange Clown leader sets the tone for his party, right?” user Megan Kelley Hall asked with a screenshot of a story about Trump’s reported failure to pay $287 million in debt. “Umm,” wrote Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) along with a list of Republicans who were forgiven for PPP loans.”

      Followed by a picture of Newt Gingrich!

  1. pgl

    I sa6id yesterday that I suspected this rate would rise from 5.13% to 5.28%. It actually rose to 5.55% which is lower than where it was in July:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/
    30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States

    Of course uber-troll Princeton Steve and his BFF JohnH said I was lying because as Stevie said Monday this rate was over 5.7% and it kept rising. OK been there done that.

    But Stevie just today tried to tell us that this rate was 5.72%. Not quite according to FREDDIE MAC which reports today this rate was 5.55%.

    My apologies to the rest of us because I cannot help that Stevie and BFF are serial disinformation machines.

    1. pgl

      Lower than it was in June. My apologies. Of course that article JohnH and Stevie both cite as their new authority did say in its very 1st sentence that mortgage rates fell in July. Even though they claimed interest rates rose. So much confusion from them so little time.

        1. pgl

          You do realize that EVERYONE here resents your pointless sniping. Try to actually make an honest point for the first time in your pathetic blogging career.

  2. pgl

    Lower than it was in June. My apologies. Of course that article JohnH and Stevie both cite as their new authority did say in its very 1st sentence that mortgage rates fell in July. Even though they claimed interest rates rose. So much confusion from them so little time.

  3. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-25/Chinese-mainland-records-390-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1cMhT71QZWM/index.html

    August 25, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 390 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 390 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 345 attributed to local transmissions and 45 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    A total of 1,369 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Wednesday, and 22,172 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 241,036, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-25/Chinese-mainland-records-390-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1cMhT71QZWM/img/1e3f66388fb14abeae6de10f6221a5b8/1e3f66388fb14abeae6de10f6221a5b8.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-25/Chinese-mainland-records-390-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1cMhT71QZWM/img/41988c43d53140528b9d118c328931a5/41988c43d53140528b9d118c328931a5.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-25/Chinese-mainland-records-390-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1cMhT71QZWM/img/16f698c89c894e33a37159507e9c4911/16f698c89c894e33a37159507e9c4911.jpeg

      1. Barkley Rosser

        And another very important factoid for you folks that none of you knew: the US has received about 400 Nobel Prizes while China has received at least one, for a dissident writer whom the PRC imprisoned. Congratulations to the people of the Peoples’ Republic of China for their one Nobel Prize!!!!

        1. Bruce Hall

          Hard to be awarded that recognition when your society is based on stealing intellectual property, enslavement of dissidents, and political manipulation and mandating of the marketplace and production (of course, the US is headed toward the latter). Regardless, the Nobel prizes have been expanded into arenas that could generously be classified as “dubious” (plenty of articles on that subject available through a simple browser search).

          1. pgl

            That is so racist that it probably made even uber racist PeakTrader hold hratis head in shame. It is also incredibly inaccurate but then lying is all you ever do, so hey!

      2. Ivan

        You found a good database. You just don’t know how to pick the data that will give important insights. The relevant numbers are the number of deaths per number of cases.

        China death rates: 1 per 46 diagnosed cases
        US death rates: 1 per 90 diagnosed cases
        Australia death rates: 1 per 742 diagnosed cases

        China
        Before 2022: 1 death per 22 diagnosed cases
        In 2022: 1 death per 231 diagnosed cases

        US
        Before 2022: 1 death per 66 diagnosed cases
        In 2022: 1 death per 182 diagnosed cases

        Australia
        Before 2022: 1 death per 169 diagnosed cases
        In 2022: 1 death per 866 diagnosed cases

  4. ltr

    https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/

    August 24, 2022

    New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work
    By Katie Bach

    Since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic through today, news about labor shortages and missing workers has dominated headlines. The question everyone still seems to be asking is: Why?

    In January 2022, Brookings Metro published a report that assessed the impact of long Covid on the labor market. Data on the condition’s prevalence was limited, so the report used various studies to make a conservative estimate: 1.6 million full-time equivalent workers could be out of work due to long Covid. With 10.6 million unfilled jobs at the time, long Covid potentially accounted for 15% of the labor shortage.

    This June, the Census Bureau finally added four questions about long Covid to its Household Pulse Survey (HPS), giving researchers a better understanding of the condition’s prevalence. This report uses the new data to assess the labor market impact and economic burden of long Covid, and finds that:

    Around 16 million working-age Americans (those aged 18 to 65) have long Covid today.

    Of those, 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid.

    The annual cost of those lost wages alone is around $170 billion a year (and potentially as high as $230 billion).

      1. ltr

        https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/25/opinion/long-covid-pandemic.html

        August 25, 2022

        Caitlin
        Delaware

        My life changed after October 2020. I have made some improvement but the memory loss, fatigue, brain fog, and migraines still plague me. I am a physician. My career is in shambles and I don’t know if I’ll work full time again. I’ve got credit card debt from the time when I wasn’t working at all. My savings are depleted. My retirement funds are neglected. My student debt is enormous. I have begun to lose hope. I hold it together as best I can for the sake of my kids, but my bright future burned to ashes. I am 39 years old.

  5. pgl

    How dumb are Trump’s lawyers?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-trump-appointed-judge-doesnt-know-what-to-make-of-the-former-presidents-lawsuit-over-the-mar-a-lago-search/ar-AA110Pbg

    A day after Donald Trump sued to stop the Justice Department from reviewing records seized at Mar-a-Lago, a federal judge appeared to join other legal experts in their bafflement over what specifically Trump was looking for.

    Trump’s lawsuit was widely scorned by former federal prosecutors and other legal scholars, who said the filing was lacking fundamental elements, such as exhibits, sworn affidavits, or a viewpoint on how a judge should approach the issues raised.

    In interviews and on social media, legal experts said the lawsuit was more akin to a press release with the way it aired Trump’s grievances against the Justice Department and described the former president as the “clear frontrunner” in the 2024 Republican primary.

    On Tuesday, Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed to the bench by Trump and confirmed in 2020, seemed equally unsure of what to make of his lawsuit. Cannon asked the former president’s lawyers to further explain what they wanted and how they believed the court should approach their request.

    The judge ordered Trump’s lawyers to respond by Friday with a court filing “further elaborating” on several points, including the “asserted basis for the exercise of this court’s jurisdiction,” “the framework applicable to the exercise of such jurisdiction,” and the precise relief they want.

    Cannon also asked Trump’s legal team to address “the effect, if any,” of a separate proceeding before Magistrate Judge Bruce E. Reinhart, who approved the warrant allowing the FBI to search the former president’s South Florida estate.

    Shortly after Cannon requested the additional briefing, legal experts pointed to her initial response as an ominous sign for Trump’s lawsuit.

    1. Ivan

      After having screwed so many lawyers that most large firms have bans on doing anything for Trump, he is left with the “no experience newly graduated” lawyers. So incompetent that they release a letter containing a single sentence that after being twisted badly might help his message – but also at least a dozen that makes him look even worse than before. Way to go boys and girls. Some of the stuff they filed actually looks like Trump himself wrote it – like that doctors note about the healthiest Presidential candidate ever!.

    1. baffling

      is this the real econned? or is this another econned “personality” he uses on the site to defend his econned personality? since we know he posts using multiple names, in an effort to troll.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Go Kevin Durant!!!!! Go Jimmy Butler!!!! Russel Westbrook is a Pu**y!!!!

          That’s all my NBA opinions for today. This is Al Michaels, and remember folks, if you don’t have Amazon Prime you suck, and when I curse, I always curse polysyllabically.

          1. Moses Herzog

            As much as I love Kevin Durant, and he’s probably in my top 5 basketball players of all time, even I think he’s slightly schizoid and overly sensitive. But I think it’s somewhat normal for his beginning socio-economic background to get where he is now. When you go from people not giving you the time of day to where he is now, it is very apt to make you cynical about people.

            I’ve said before I don’t view myself as emotional (more stoic in fact), but when Durant gave his MVP speech I really got a lump in my throat. I thought his speech was very moving.

    1. pgl

      “Patty Murray has spent millions to paint me as an extremist,” said Smiley. “I’m pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban.”

      Which basically is saying states get the right to tell women what to do with their bodies. So in the state of Washington would she vote for a state abortion ban? If she would – Murray is spot on with her critique of Smiley.

      1. Ivan

        It is so much better for the people in her state to have their abortion prevented by a nice local ban that by a big bad federal ban – we presume ???

    2. AndrewG

      “Before you try to sit on two chairs at the same time, you should check out the size of the gap between them.”

      This also relates to the obesity issue mentioned previously.

  6. pgl

    I was struck by these two sentences from the BEA report on GDP in 2022QII:

    The decrease in private inventory investment was led by a decrease in retail trade (mainly “other” general merchandise stores). The decrease in residential fixed investment was led by a decrease in “other” structures (specifically real estate brokers’ commissions).

    Wow – Wal-Mart was not restocking its inventory for a few months! And if real estate brokers got fewer commissions because they cut their inflated rates – that’d be a good thing.

  7. pgl

    https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/article264902374.html

    A federal judge in Florida has accepted a list of redactions from the Justice Department to a key document that led to the search of Donald Trump’s home earlier this month, ordering its release by noon on Friday. The document — an affidavit that outlines probable cause that evidence of crimes were at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago estate — is likely to be heavily redacted. The Justice Department is investigating whether the former president committed crimes in his handling of highly classified material. Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart in the Southern District of Florida said that the U.S. government had “met its burden” in showing that a full release of the document would “reveal the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, and uncharged parties” and “the investigation’s strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods.”

    Oh well – Trump and his minions do not get the list of witnesses that they can go after. Sorry all you MAGA hat wearing trolls.

  8. ltr

    Recorded increases in employment with slight revision in GDP for last quarter, suggest that productivity indeed showed little increase.:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lSy9

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing and Nonfarm Business Productivity, * 1988-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Percent change)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lSyd

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing and Nonfarm Business Productivity, * 1988-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Indexed to 1988)

  9. ltr

    And another very important factoid for you folks that none of you knew: the US has received about 400 Nobel Prizes while China has received at least one, for a dissident writer whom the PRC imprisoned. Congratulations to the people of the Peoples’ Republic of China for their one Nobel Prize!!!!

    [ Frightening, that learning even a little of what could have saved American lives and could protect American health is a matter of ridicule so that learning becomes impossible. The disdain is such that when China decoded the genetic structure of COVID-19 in a week and developed testing primers a couple of days after, and published the genetic code and sent the testing primers to the WHO, the CDC would not use the primers for testing and struggled to produce an American COVID-19 test for more than 2 months. The fearful need however is evidently to demean a people, making learning a fearful problem. ]

    1. ltr

      https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

      August 18, 2022

      Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases

      Almost 14.4 million children are reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic according to available state reports; over 358,000 of these cases have been added in the past 4 weeks. Approximately 6.5 million reported cases have been added in 2022.

      14,362,007 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 18.4% (14,362,007 / 78,010,034) of all cases

      Overall rate: 19,082 cases per 100,000 children in the population

      1. ltr

        John,

        Thank you so much.

        https://english.news.cn/20220824/8379b6fd1aed4a09be386e6c0181e752/c.html

        August 24, 2022

        China sees growth in number of patent transfers

        BEIJING — China has witnessed growth in the number of patent transfers and licenses over the past year, the country’s top intellectual property (IP) regulator said on Wednesday.

        In 2021, the number of patent transfers and licenses nationwide reached 420,000, up 15 percent year on year. Among them, the growth rate in low-carbon industries such as green new energy is more than twice the national average, the National Intellectual Property Administration revealed at its monthly press conference.

        The number of patent transfers and licenses in Chinese universities and research institutes reached 27,000, a year-on-year increase of 33.4 percent, of which 30 percent of the patents belonged to strategic emerging industries, a spokesperson for the administration said.

        Lei Chaozi, head of the science and technology department of the Ministry of Education, attributed the progress to efforts in talent cultivation.

        Many universities have set up secondary disciplines or interdisciplinary disciplines related to intellectual property, and over 100 Chinese universities have established IP undergraduate programs, with more than 12,000 students, said the official.

        He also highlighted that university patent transfer and licensing agreements vaulted from 2,357 in 2012 to over 15,000 in 2021. The monetary value of patent commercialization amounted to 8.89 billion yuan (about 1.3 billion U.S. dollars) from 820 million yuan during the period.

        “It is an achievement of both quantity and quality trending up simultaneously,” Lei said.

      2. ltr

        https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-26/China-s-Hualong-One-nuclear-power-demonstration-project-completed-18HTWeOUHE4/index.html

        March 26, 2022

        China’s Hualong One nuclear power demonstration project fully operational
        By Zheng Yibing

        A demonstration project of Hualong One – China’s domestically developed third-generation nuclear power technology – has been fully completed with officials saying the second of its two units is ready for commercial operation in southeast China’s Fujian Province.

        The second unit was connected to the grid two months ago and went through a comprehensive debug test in early February, according to its operator, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).

        “It was examined during the Spring Festival and is in good condition now, and all its indicators meet the design requirements,” Xu Jinlong, deputy general manager of CNNC’s Fuqing nuclear power plant, said Friday.

        The project’s landmark first unit started commercial operation on January 30, 2021. It finished its first refueling and overhaul early this month monitored by China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration.

        CNNC said the annual electricity output of the two Hualong One reactors could be close to 20 billion kilowatt-hours, equal to that of 6.24 million tonnes of standard coal consumption and cutting more than 16.3 million tonnes of carbon emission.

        The Hualong One technology, jointly developed by CNNC and China General Nuclear Power Corporation, has more than 700 patents and 120 software copyrights.

        The reactor adopts both active and passive safety measures to prevent and contain potential accidents. It also has a double-layer shell that can withstand a 9-magnitude earthquake and even an air crash.

        More than 20 countries and regions, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and Brazil have expressed a desire for cooperation with CNNC, the company said….

  10. baffling

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/texas-says-10-companies-including-blackrock-boycotting-energy-.html

    so the state of texas wants to have state intervention in the investment world. basically, texas retirement funds are forced to invest in texas companies. interesting how those free market advocates of the Republican Party so eagerly push for state sponsored investment demands. apparently texas republicans do not believe in capitalism. they seem to be more in line with those centralized planners from decades ago-the communists.

      1. Macroduck

        Texas has long made optimistic assumptions about investment returns in order to justify lower state contribution to retirement funds:

        https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/05/state-public-pension-fund-returns-expected-to-decline

        The 2021 run-up in stock prices gave pension funds some breathing room, but Texas has just decided to cut it’s return assumption:

        https://www.texasaft.org/funding/trs-board-approves-more-conservative-financial-approach-heres-what-that-means-for-a-potential-cola/

        Why now? Well, it’s time to figure out the annual cost-of-living adjustment. You might think the COLA would be based on, you know, the cost of living, but it isn’t. It’s a budget decision. And, as the article notes:

        “This does not mean a significant COLA is impossible; it simply means the Texas Legislature likely would have to appropriate funds to TRS to make it happen.”

        Show of hands: Who thinks the state with the least generous pension plan will pay to keep pension recipients from losing ground to inflation?

        1. AndrewG

          So Texas tests another theory from American history: good state provision (such as education) wins more immigrants. If no one trusts the state to manage the pension system, who’s going to stay, even if land is way cheaper than it is in New Jersey?

          Just to calm your nerves, Bruce Hall, I mean *American* immigrants to Texas.

    1. AndrewG

      Very interesting, hadn’t heard this.

      I think this is part and parcel with the MAGA-fication of the GOP. In just 10 years going from Club For Growth “government small enough to drown in a bathtub” Ayn Rand-loving Ryan as VP candidate to … mercantilism and industrial policy (the most boneheaded kind) and immigration restriction. None of which, mind you, is new to American history. But that doesn’t make it good.

  11. baffling

    ltr continues to promote a government that kills millions of its own citizens, and detains millions more due to their ethnicity. vile defense by ltr. but she will attack me as racist for pointing this out. while the murders continue overseas.

    1. Moses Herzog

      To me, for the most part, it’s like getting upset at someone for wearing a toupee or shoulder pads in their suit. We needn’t always harp to them it looks dumb or “everyone knows how they really look”. The absurdity is self-apparent, let them wear their toupee if it makes them happy. Eventually they really do start to take up space in your head. I often let Barkley get the last comment here, and I read his comments, but I often skip over the last comment he makes. I don’t even read it, because I know the argument is finished, if he wants to throw the spit wad at the back of my head after I told him in front of the class he spelled a word wrong, let him throw the spit wad. Just let “ltr” do his little thing, because there aren’t over 2 in 1000 readers who believe him, and the ones that do already were drinking the fruit punch.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      baffling,

      I understand if you find Moses’s comment here plenty weird. Somehow your strong comment about what ltr says prompted him to sort of dismiss your comment and lump me in with ltr along with repeating his bizarre fantasy that ltr is a “him,” which only reminds everybody of Moses’s serious problems with women.

      BTW, if he wants to call this a “spit ball,” fine, but I had not even been commenting on this since my original comment about Nobel Prizes, which got adjusted after he accurately pointed out that I had missed the one that apparently China has gotten.

  12. ltr

    Hard to be awarded that recognition when your society is based on stealing intellectual property, enslavement of dissidents….
    Hard to be awarded that recognition when your society is based on stealing intellectual property, enslavement of dissidents….
    Hard to be awarded that recognition when your society is based on stealing intellectual property, enslavement of dissidents….

    [ This of course is false, entirely maliciously false. This is entirely maliciously false, entirely racist. An astonishingly malicious comment. ]

  13. ltr

    — continues to promote a government that kills millions of its own citizens…
    — continues to promote a government that kills millions of its own citizens…
    — continues to promote a government that kills millions of its own citizens…

    [ This is maliciously false, entirely racist, entirely shameful. ]

    1. Macroduck

      How dare you accuse anyone of racism when you take money to deny China’s oppression of Uyghurs and other minorites, China’s record of slavery? Dog.

      1. pgl

        I generally with you on this but take a look at Bruce Hall’s smear of the Chinese scientists above. Yea I get Bruce Hall is not only a serial liar but also one of the most racist people here. But damn – his latest was disgusting even for him.

    2. Baffling

      Ltr, stop whining and making racist and shameful comments on this blog. You stop the propaganda or i will continue to point out the vile positions you take. Your behavior on this site towards prof chinn is embarrassing, shameful and rude. I would have thought your parents raised you better than how you treat prof chinn’s hospitality. Rude and shameful.

      How many millions of Chinese citizens did mao kill in the name of political power, ltr?

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